辞职炒股
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The semiconductor sector completely crashed on Friday, but the Dow rose. Overall, the number of increases was about the same as the number of individual stocks falling. There was no panic in the market; it was just focused on semiconductors and big technology. The reason is simple. The demon stock SMCI announced financial results on 4/30, but did not give the same performance forecast as in the past. The other is that SoftBank holds 90% of ARM. Since SoftBank has already mortgaged most of ARM, once ARM's stock price falls, it is very likely to cause SoftBank to sell ARM to recover funds; SMCI's performance mainly comes from Nvidia, so Nvidia has also been questioned. Since there are too many semiconductors, it has caused a stomping phenomenon, which can be said to be a blood crash. Now we can only wait until the line improves before considering entering the semiconductor market. Next week's big tech earnings report will be another bloody storm.
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This week, we bought back some NVDL and opened a position on AMD (because AMD launched the Mi300, which is comparable to the H100 or even the H200, and I personally think AMD's financial report is more likely to be surprised), and opened positions in energy and gold. Next, the AI sector should be in a phase of sideways fluctuation. If the market does not fall, capital will flow to make up for the increase. Profits have declined sharply as a result of a mistake in the operation of cyclical rights. It's definitely uncomfortable. It's really difficult not to take emotions into the deal. The weekend restarts next week~
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I haven't shared it for a few days. After clearing NVDL and other pullbacks, I bought Google's Long Call. This week, I mainly participated in DJT's sell put. I found that when the volatility is high, the sell put is basically steady and profitable, because the volatility doesn't stay high forever and we make money even if the stock price falls, so this strategy is still quite steady. Looking back at this quarter, I made a lot of money, but I also lost a lot. After learning a lot of strategies and doing a lot of short-term practical battles, I discovered that offense was not the most important thing; defense was the only one. The most important thing a mature trader needs to master is the ability to control the withdrawal of funds. I am no longer looking for multiple increases in a year, but instead rely on my accumulated data and practical experience to make every decision to achieve long-term relatively stable compound interest to complete capital accumulation.
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Today, the Federal Reserve confirmed three interest rate cuts, and the bitmap has not changed. Powell's speech was more like cutting interest rates to downplay the recent recovery in inflation. After all, it's an election year, and no one dares to mess around. To sum it up, stock holdings are waiting to rise (small positions are in MU at the end of today, the financial report is good 😁)
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Yesterday at Nvidia's GTC, the overall feeling was that Nvidia strengthened the moat, but there was no mention of Blackwell's price or potential customer needs, so it was impossible to evaluate sales in 2025. I personally decided to continue holding Nvidia and continue to increase my NVDL position today. The semiconductor companies will be divided. Tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting will mainly look at whether the bitmap has changed.
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There hasn't been much operation in the past two days. The chip stock IV has sold NVDL's call and put to earn some premium. I feel that most of the fluctuations on tomorrow's 4th day have been reflected in today's stock prices. I have 40% of NVDL and 10% SMCI in my hands, waiting for next week's GTC conference.
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Today's CPI slightly exceeded expectations. However, yesterday's Oracle earnings report specifically mentioned that AI base stations are completely in short supply, indicating that AI hotspots are still fermenting. MU's Call opened an intraday position, and there weren't many other operations. SMCI and Nvidia Flying Knife, which crashed in the middle of the mountainside last Friday, unexpectedly made profits today. It can be seen that semiconductors are strong.
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Today's account retracted quite a bit. I need to take a moment to reflect. My intellect told me that it would fall, and I predicted a day in advance that I would have to stop my profit and short positions for the time being. Obviously, I can avoid losing a lot of money. I clearly sold the profit and couldn't control it and took it back. The mentality of being afraid of going short interfered with my every decision over and over again. I naively thought that the experience of the past few years was enough for me to cope with all kinds of situations in the stock market, but now I discovered that it was far from enough. I couldn't even overcome my emotions, the easiest short position was not possible, and you will never be able to become a qualified trader.
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ColumnsAI bubble
Let's chat over the weekend. I think the future AI will evolve into a bubble, which will bring a wave of unprecedented opportunities, and of course it also has great risks. Without a bubble, it would be difficult for US stocks to recover significantly. Any short-term risk up to that point would be a good time to lay out. Investments surrounding this AI have also been an opportunity for US stocks for a long time.
Historically, major technological revolutions will create big bubbles. The power revolution in 1920 and the Internet revolution in the last 00 years cannot escape the formation of a huge bubble. This AI revolution also cannot escape the fate of the bubble. What is behind this is the inevitability of historical development. Perhaps these technological revolutions are all naturally prone to bubbles.
I think there are two main reasons: the technological revolution is short-lived for corporate profits. It is undeniable that the technological revolution brings about a boost in productivity, but it is generally short and has a significant effect on the company's profits in the short term. Generally, this kind of growth is difficult to maintain, because once effective, large amounts of capital will enter to compete, which will cause excess profits to be shared evenly. People think that companies that are now very profitable and growing rapidly will continue to grow rapidly in the future. This is the reason for the bubble.
The second reason is that people generally believe that individual companies will benefit from the technological revolution, so it is inferred that similar companies will also benefit. There are many examples of these markets. The most recent one was the 20-year electric vehicle concept. $Tesla(TSLA.US$ The stock price has doubled tenfold in a year, and there are also many emerging companies, many...
Historically, major technological revolutions will create big bubbles. The power revolution in 1920 and the Internet revolution in the last 00 years cannot escape the formation of a huge bubble. This AI revolution also cannot escape the fate of the bubble. What is behind this is the inevitability of historical development. Perhaps these technological revolutions are all naturally prone to bubbles.
I think there are two main reasons: the technological revolution is short-lived for corporate profits. It is undeniable that the technological revolution brings about a boost in productivity, but it is generally short and has a significant effect on the company's profits in the short term. Generally, this kind of growth is difficult to maintain, because once effective, large amounts of capital will enter to compete, which will cause excess profits to be shared evenly. People think that companies that are now very profitable and growing rapidly will continue to grow rapidly in the future. This is the reason for the bubble.
The second reason is that people generally believe that individual companies will benefit from the technological revolution, so it is inferred that similar companies will also benefit. There are many examples of these markets. The most recent one was the 20-year electric vehicle concept. $Tesla(TSLA.US$ The stock price has doubled tenfold in a year, and there are also many emerging companies, many...
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The market surged after Powell's hearing. The market stopped winning, PLTR added NVDL, SMCI, and SOXL's call, and stopped losing money. I always felt that the market was catching up to the top and rising very tired. Now the market is at the end of a pull-up period and the beginning of a recession. How long can the excessive in the middle last continue.
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