Hello everyone, I am You Dou.
On Thursday when the market opened, I posted a 'death cross' chart of Tesla's pink and white moving averages on an overseas platform. The purpose was to alert that Tesla's daily Candlestick would soon be weak, but unexpectedly, the first comment was a cold statement: 'Secondary lagging Indicators, what’s the use?'
I didn’t reply. Not because there was nothing to say, but because it was unnecessary.
This is not the first time I have heard similar scoffs. As long as you publicly talk about Technical Analysis, especially moving averages, sooner or later someone will jump out and sneer: "This thing is extremely lagging and is completely meaningless."
But this is truly laughable.
Indeed, all Technical Indicators are essentially lagging, and moving averages are no exception.
But the question is—do you really think there is any tool in this market that can accurately predict the future?
Only liars and luck can truly "predict the future."
After over a decade of trading, the belief grows: trading is not about predicting the future, but establishing order amidst uncertainty. It’s not about getting the trend right to make money, but about confirming the trend, controlling risk, and executing systematically to survive.
Just like the "pink-white moving average" I always use, it’s not because it’s magical, but because it’s clear enough and stable enough.
I never use it to predict how tomorrow will go, but to determine - when the market is clear, I take action; when I don’t understand, I stay still.
In simple terms, Those who find moving averages useless are those who rely on them to predict the future.
Just like Buffett, who is over ninety, still manually draws Candlestick charts. Is he not smart? Is Technical Analysis not...