我是等等
reacted to
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Position Analysis (20/05-24/05 2024)
“History clearly shows that almost every superstock was in a clear upward trend before rising sharply. In fact, 99% of stocks traded above the 200-day moving average before a sharp rise, and 96% traded above the 50-day moving average.” -Mark Minervini
A quick review of this week's markets:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Fundraising on Tuesday, distribution on Thursday, disagreement on Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Divided on Tuesday, distributed on Wednesday and Thursday, and attracted on Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ It is distributed on Tuesday, distributed on Thursday, and attracted on Friday.
NDX>SPX>DJI.
Another wonderful week, summed up in one sentence: capital has baptized participants in inertial thinking again and again (history is always repeated, and the mentality of market participants has always been the same);
This is why trading requires a system, rules, and circumvents all emotions as much as possible;
At the same time, the market also brought us a layer of high-quality filters, so you can gradually see who are the flowers and who are the weeds in the garden.
NDX and SPX weekly charts:
The area around 10MA was backtested at the same time, and in a very short time...
“History clearly shows that almost every superstock was in a clear upward trend before rising sharply. In fact, 99% of stocks traded above the 200-day moving average before a sharp rise, and 96% traded above the 50-day moving average.” -Mark Minervini
A quick review of this week's markets:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Fundraising on Tuesday, distribution on Thursday, disagreement on Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Divided on Tuesday, distributed on Wednesday and Thursday, and attracted on Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ It is distributed on Tuesday, distributed on Thursday, and attracted on Friday.
NDX>SPX>DJI.
Another wonderful week, summed up in one sentence: capital has baptized participants in inertial thinking again and again (history is always repeated, and the mentality of market participants has always been the same);
This is why trading requires a system, rules, and circumvents all emotions as much as possible;
At the same time, the market also brought us a layer of high-quality filters, so you can gradually see who are the flowers and who are the weeds in the garden.
NDX and SPX weekly charts:
The area around 10MA was backtested at the same time, and in a very short time...
Translated
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我是等等
commented on
$Hallador Energy(HNRG.US$
YAWP
$Hallador Energy(HNRG.US$
It's easy. Know the sectors money is moving to, and beat them to it. 🤑
Then buy don't look, wait and reap the rewards.
Sure do
it sounds impossible, but it's not 🤫 it's not tech.😉
YAWP
$Hallador Energy(HNRG.US$
It's easy. Know the sectors money is moving to, and beat them to it. 🤑
Then buy don't look, wait and reap the rewards.
Sure do
it sounds impossible, but it's not 🤫 it's not tech.😉
+1
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我是等等
commented on
我是等等
liked
This is a recent tweet from Mark Minervini on Twitter 👇
Since the day after the contraction was the quarterly earnings report, we have no way of knowing whether Mark traded this stock, but we can do it according to $Blueprint Medicines(BPMC.US$The chart shows some telltale signs of why Mark is paying attention to this stock.
First, take a look at the IBD chart. The two recent sharp declines have produced a bullish divergence from the RS line 👇
Some other important metrics 👇
Back to the MOOMOO chart:
The figure uses purple lines to connect the high and low points of the finishing area, as follows:
101,84.81
97, 84.33
94.67, 88.46
94.98, 90.745
The difference is obtained by subtracting before and after:
16.19
12.67
6.21
4.235
High and low point gap%:
16%
13.06%
6.56% (met the conditions)
4.46% (conditions met)
Finally, a white line is drawn to break through the buying point, and the recent low uses a red line to indicate a stop loss.
Next, we use a $100,000.00 account as an account model. Swing trading corresponds to a reasonable stop loss range of 1% to 0.25% of the account
1% account stop loss = $1,000.00. You can buy 236 shares with a price difference stop loss corresponding to 4.235. The amount used: $22,427.00...
Since the day after the contraction was the quarterly earnings report, we have no way of knowing whether Mark traded this stock, but we can do it according to $Blueprint Medicines(BPMC.US$The chart shows some telltale signs of why Mark is paying attention to this stock.
First, take a look at the IBD chart. The two recent sharp declines have produced a bullish divergence from the RS line 👇
Some other important metrics 👇
Back to the MOOMOO chart:
The figure uses purple lines to connect the high and low points of the finishing area, as follows:
101,84.81
97, 84.33
94.67, 88.46
94.98, 90.745
The difference is obtained by subtracting before and after:
16.19
12.67
6.21
4.235
High and low point gap%:
16%
13.06%
6.56% (met the conditions)
4.46% (conditions met)
Finally, a white line is drawn to break through the buying point, and the recent low uses a red line to indicate a stop loss.
Next, we use a $100,000.00 account as an account model. Swing trading corresponds to a reasonable stop loss range of 1% to 0.25% of the account
1% account stop loss = $1,000.00. You can buy 236 shares with a price difference stop loss corresponding to 4.235. The amount used: $22,427.00...
Translated
+3
12
我是等等
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Q1 Monthly Earnings Breakdown 👇
Overall yield curve 👇
First quarter deal win rate and top 5 winners 👇
SMCI is a two-trade transaction. The main position size during the cycling phase is 12-13%, and there are currently no positions.
NVDA is a single transaction. The size of positions in the main cycling phase is 11-12%, and there are currently no positions.
KOLD is a single transaction. The position size during the main cycling phase is about 3%, and there are currently no positions.
CVNA is a single transaction. The main cycling stage position is about 3%, and currently holds the remaining 1/3 of the position.
META is a single transaction. The main cycling stage positions: 8-9%, currently holding 3/4 of the remaining positions.
*It is worth noting that KOLD and CVNA both received large returns with small positions of about 3%, showing the impact of huge psychological advantages on trading. Similar returns on low-risk transactions are of profound significance to account growth ❤️
Despite more or less making some trading mistakes in the first quarter, the account still had a good positive growth due to the trading system and psychological aspects and the advantage of avoiding noise.
System advantages:
Probability of winning trades X average return of winning trades > probability of losing trades X average loss of failed trades.
Only the 4 variables “average loss of a failed transaction” are the most controllable and are the foundation of a successful trading system;
Psychological advantages:
The impact on the “average return on a winning transaction” is most important. Most of the details are profit protection for advantageous transactions already obtained and safer riding for a longer period of time...
Overall yield curve 👇
First quarter deal win rate and top 5 winners 👇
SMCI is a two-trade transaction. The main position size during the cycling phase is 12-13%, and there are currently no positions.
NVDA is a single transaction. The size of positions in the main cycling phase is 11-12%, and there are currently no positions.
KOLD is a single transaction. The position size during the main cycling phase is about 3%, and there are currently no positions.
CVNA is a single transaction. The main cycling stage position is about 3%, and currently holds the remaining 1/3 of the position.
META is a single transaction. The main cycling stage positions: 8-9%, currently holding 3/4 of the remaining positions.
*It is worth noting that KOLD and CVNA both received large returns with small positions of about 3%, showing the impact of huge psychological advantages on trading. Similar returns on low-risk transactions are of profound significance to account growth ❤️
Despite more or less making some trading mistakes in the first quarter, the account still had a good positive growth due to the trading system and psychological aspects and the advantage of avoiding noise.
System advantages:
Probability of winning trades X average return of winning trades > probability of losing trades X average loss of failed trades.
Only the 4 variables “average loss of a failed transaction” are the most controllable and are the foundation of a successful trading system;
Psychological advantages:
The impact on the “average return on a winning transaction” is most important. Most of the details are profit protection for advantageous transactions already obtained and safer riding for a longer period of time...
Translated
+8
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This is the yield curve of the trader's own account.
If you repeatedly summarize and study your past yield curve, you will see your unique strengths and weaknesses; and with the following questions 👇
Is it possible to basically identify the most basic characteristics of the upward trend and adjustment period in the market?
Were you fully involved in trading during the main upward trend?
Were transactions drastically reduced or not traded during periods of market adjustment?
Are there still problems with stock selection?
Is the position the right size?
Is it possible to cut weed in positions too slowly or sell too early/late to big winners?
The most important question after the research isn't to ask yourself “Can I do a better account yield curve?”
Instead, ask “What can I do to have a better account yield curve?”
Below are yield curves for the last two major uptrends, where you can always find areas for improvement to do better in the next uptrend. 🚴🏻
June-July 2023:
November 2023 to March 2024:
Research your past transactions over and over again, learn from them and find improvement plans, and confirm implementing this plan when you make your next transaction. 🚴🏻
Finally: Keep reading 🚴🏻 (The human body needs timely nutritional supplementation; mental and spiritual needs are equally necessary)
If you repeatedly summarize and study your past yield curve, you will see your unique strengths and weaknesses; and with the following questions 👇
Is it possible to basically identify the most basic characteristics of the upward trend and adjustment period in the market?
Were you fully involved in trading during the main upward trend?
Were transactions drastically reduced or not traded during periods of market adjustment?
Are there still problems with stock selection?
Is the position the right size?
Is it possible to cut weed in positions too slowly or sell too early/late to big winners?
The most important question after the research isn't to ask yourself “Can I do a better account yield curve?”
Instead, ask “What can I do to have a better account yield curve?”
Below are yield curves for the last two major uptrends, where you can always find areas for improvement to do better in the next uptrend. 🚴🏻
June-July 2023:
November 2023 to March 2024:
Research your past transactions over and over again, learn from them and find improvement plans, and confirm implementing this plan when you make your next transaction. 🚴🏻
Finally: Keep reading 🚴🏻 (The human body needs timely nutritional supplementation; mental and spiritual needs are equally necessary)
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Major Index futures 👇
Key Indices 👇
The market, where trading volume and price were uniformly diverged in the initial stage, is still very unconvincing;
Complements every SPX Follow-up Day (FTD) since October 2022 👇
In terms of individual stocks, most of the surviving leader stocks and emerging leader stocks are:
Excessive expansion of high opening after financial reports;
the left half of the settings;
I'm just half way through the setup;
Continue to wait patiently as planned 🚴🏻
Key Indices 👇
The market, where trading volume and price were uniformly diverged in the initial stage, is still very unconvincing;
Complements every SPX Follow-up Day (FTD) since October 2022 👇
In terms of individual stocks, most of the surviving leader stocks and emerging leader stocks are:
Excessive expansion of high opening after financial reports;
the left half of the settings;
I'm just half way through the setup;
Continue to wait patiently as planned 🚴🏻
Translated
+10
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R.I.P Legend 🙏
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$Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3x Shares ETF(LABU.US$ Flying three thousand feet straight down, it is suspected that the Milky Way will set in nine days! Stop your losses and don't regret it before you break out of the field of chives!
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Jesse Livermore doesn't have modern technology, but still feels the need to take a vacation to avoid trading at the wrong time.
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