- Last week, a third consecutive higher-than-anticipated core CPI report in March, where both headline and core CPI stayed at 0.4% MoM. As March typically is a month seasonally known for disinflation, this is an indication that core disinflation momentum is stalling
- Initial jobless claims for week ending Apr 6 fell to 211k (vs 222k prior), below consensus estimates of 215k. As Easter holiday corresponds with spring-break in schools, it makes it harder ...

- Last week, FOMC held rates constant at 5.25%-5.50%, and maintained outlook for 75bp of cuts in 2024.
- Fed Chair Powell's discussion suggested that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) "fairly soon" implies that the Fed is ready to announce and implement a slower pace of QT in May, and supports the view that the Fed will initiate a gradual pace of easing in June.
- Initial jobless claims for week ended March 16 fell t...

- Last week, CPI report came in stronger-than-anticipated where both headline and core CPI rose 0.4% MoM in February (vs. 0.3% and 0.4% prior, respectively), and headline CPI rose to 3.2% (vs 3.1% prior) and core CPI moved downwards to 3.8% (vs 3.9% prior). Nevertheless, it is important to note that owners’ equivalent rent (OER) indicated January’s surprise rise was just noise, and did not indicate rent inflation. Similarly,the headline PPI likely rose ...

- The Fed's Beige Book survey released last week showed that the US economy has grown at a modest pace since earlier in the year, while consumers demonstrated increased sensitivity to rising prices.
- Last week, headline services ISM dropped by 0.8 points to 52.6 (consensus: 53.0) in February, reversing a portion of January's significant increase.
- Continuing claims rose 8k to 1,906k, for the week ending Feb 24, which is above pre-pandemic average of 16...

- Last week’s JOLTs job openings showed decline to 8733k from 9553k previously, while initial jobless claims rose to 220k for week ending Dec 2 from 219k the week before. Moving into the new year, Bloomberg analysts foresee firms to begin laying off workers rather than rely on attrition to manage headcount especially in customer-facing sectors. As such, unemployment is anticipated to rise next year and approach 5% by next year-end, which is historically ...

- According to the Fed’s Beige Book published last Wednesday, activity has decelerated, and outlook for the next 6-12 months has worsened. This suggests existing rates are sufficient in clamping down on inflation.
- Last Thursday, PCE Core Deflator softened, falling to 0.2% MoM (3.5% YoY), bolstering confidence that rates are restrictive enough. Additionally, personal expenditures have slowed to 0.2% in October (vs 0.7% prior), signaling a deceleration i...

- US real GDP growth for 3Q was at 4.9% QoQ, above prior period and consensus estimates, due to robust consumption as personal consumption grew 4.0% QoQ.
- Initial jobless claims for week ending 21 Oct rose to 210k, despite a rise in payrolls by 336k jobs in September. This is because some workers took on several jobs. This highlights the cracks in the labor market.
- Nobel Laureate Paul Romer insisted that the Fed should begin lowering rates and that...

- Recent economic indicators revealed that US retail sales surpassed expectations at +0.7% MoM and industrial production improved +0.3% MoM in September, while nonfarm payroll increases averaged 266k over the past 3 months.
- Despite the resilient economy, last Thursday, at the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Powell remarked that rates are at or near peak and expressed a definite intention of pausing rate hikes. Nevertheless, the Fed remains watchfu...