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ouySFiuuNu Private ID: 71387229
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    $CleanSpark(CLSK.US)$
    $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)$
    Day trades: 2 trades, 2 wins for total realised +USD1623
    Long CLSK, duration: 28 min.
    Short SMCI, duration 27 min.
    Last minutes opportunity appeared short SMCI. No patience; exit too fast as market makers will play punk.
    Almost perfect timing at entries but no appetite to drag longer. So, the exits were not perfect timing and missed out huge run in my favour had I didn't exit too fast. ...
    2024 Apr 11 est  Realised Day Trade CLSK Long; SMCI Short
    2024 Apr 11 est  Realised Day Trade CLSK Long; SMCI Short
    1
    A brief guide to two popular technical indicators
    Introduction.
    Day trading is a challenging and rewarding activity that requires skill, discipline, and a good understanding of the market. Technical analysis is one of the tools that day traders use to make informed decisions and execute profitable trades. In this document, I will introduce two of the most widely used technical indicators: MACD and KDJ. I will explain what they are, how they work, and how to...
    How to Use MACD and KDJ for Day Trading
    ouySFiuuNu reacted to and commented on
    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ is not only the first mover but also the one innovating the fastest. The future of EVs is autonomy. Any EV that can't drive itself will have a tiny fraction of the value that one that can will. In fact, having a car that can drive itself on the market will lower the value of those which can't.
    I know a lot of bears have trouble looking forward any more than a year ago but that really is the future.
    1
    ouySFiuuNu reacted to
    $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ Yes, the future is unquantified.
    We do not know yet if each of the new segments that Nvidia is getting into (Omniverse, Autonomous Vehicles, Robotics, CPUs, getting into Edge AI with or without ARM, etc.,) will be rewarded with additional growth.
    Even if *some* of those turn into winners, as in $10B revenue potential in steady state, Nvidia will be in great shape. Add to that the increasing market market share in data center segment via acceleration and HPC, and more and more enterprises getting into AI (expanding the sales of Nvidia’s AI platform) to continue the growth for existing segments, I personally do not believe a slowdown in the next 24 months. And growing at 38% with 65-67% margin is not going to be a problem. Please also note that whatever Nvidia’s building in the next 12 months is already spoken for.
    Beyond that (24 months) we are talking another 12-24 months to see if Nvidia can maintain 38% growth. Well, let us adjust in the next 18 months as we get to see what Jensen reveals in 2022 GTC and 2023 GTC.
    Until that point, I will hold and add during dips (did that at $295 recently). Oh, forgot to mention that there will be dips of 5-10% or more in the next 12-24 months, some sideways movement, but will continue to March ahead towards a trillion dollar valuation (that $1T valuation is a foregone conclusion).
    1
    ouySFiuuNu liked and commented on
    $Intel(INTC.US)$ Don’t hurry there there will be plenty of time to buy INTC in the 40s. If they don’t perform flawlessly in every facet of the business INTC will get a lot cheaper. Gelsinger is going to have to PROVE he is a great leader—talk is cheap and show me time is here.
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    ouySFiuuNu reacted to
    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ If you draw a simple linear regression line on the closing price, it is not only sloping =>upwards<= long term, but it is sloping more steeply =>upwards<= recently.
    Presently it does have a range of $140, that is, +/- $70 around the closing mean and Elon needs to sell about another 8 million shares to get his 10%, but that deal was structured in early September as a 10b sale, most likely to raise cash for his $15 BILLION 53% tax hit for when he realizes his 23.7 Million shares at $6.234/share from August, 2012 compensation package, but Elon will end up with about 10 MILLION _more_ shares.
    Happy Thanksgiving and happy investing, I definitely am, and sincerely thank shorts for my portion of the $60 BILLION they have given the longs
    Cheers
    4
    ouySFiuuNu reacted to and commented on
    Fintech Ant Group's $Alibaba(BABA.US)$ valuation is said to have been cut by 15% to below $200B by major investor Warburg Pincus.
    Private equity firm Warburg Pincus, who was a large investor in Ant's 2018 fundraising, cut the company's valuation to $191B at end of September from $224B at the end of June, according to a Reuters report, which cited sources. The report also said there are signs that Ant's planned IPO won't be happening anytime soon.
    Warburg changed its valuation methodology for the fintech giant, citing “regulatory developments and the impact of ongoing restructuring," according to Reuters.
    Ant Group was ordered by Chinese regulators to restructure into a financial holding company, and Alibaba, which holds Ant Group stake, had to pay a record $2.75B antitrust fine in April.
    Last year, Ant was valued at $315B ahead of its blockbuster IPO dual listing, which regulators pulled at the last minute in November. In May, Fidelity cut Ant Group's valuation to $144B implied valuation from its $300B heights.
    Separately, the WSJ reported earlier that Ant has set up a new consumer finance company and has folded its credit business into the new entity as part of Ant's restructuring efforts aimed at appeasing Chinese authorities.
    Ant Group director Fred Hu told Nikkei in July that he expected that the company will be able to resume its suspended IPO "before too long."
    Earlier this week, Alibaba, Baidu among decliners in wake of Chinese government fines.
    Ant Group valuation said cut by 15% by major investor Warburg Pincus
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    ouySFiuuNu liked and commented on
    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ Tesla first introduced personal auto insurance in California in 2019 through State National Insurance. More recently, the company took the next step forward in its insurance journey by offering personal auto insurance in Texas through the underwriting company Redpoint County Mutual Insurance. It's important to note that Tesla isn't an underwriting company, it is partnering with underwriting companies to offer its product under the Tesla Insurance name.
    The premium is determined based on what vehicle you drive, your provided address, how much you drive, and what coverage you select. The company is not using traditional variables like credit, age, gender, and claim history to price their insurance. With Texas, Tesla also introduced their UBI program called the Safety Score as an additional factor in determining premium.
    The Safety Score is based on driving behavior and assigns the driver a score from 0 to 100 based on five safety factors:
    1. Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles: Audible and visual alerts provided to the driver in situations where a possible collision could occur due to an object in front of the vehicle. Maintaining a safe distance and paying attention to the traffic around you helps improve your score.
    2. Hard Braking*: Defined as a decrease in the vehicle’s speed larger than 6.7 mph, in one second. Despite the definition, I think we all know what hard braking is. The Safety score can be improved by engaging the brake pedal early when slowing down, coming to a stop, or reacting to a change in the environment.
    3. Aggressive Turning*: Defined as an increase in vehicle’s speed to the left/right greater than 8.9 mph, in one second. Again, we all know aggressive turning when we see it. The Safety Score can be improved by turning, changing lanes, or rounding a corner gradually instead of aggressively.
    4. Unsafe Following*: Tesla vehicles measure their own speed, the speed of the vehicle in front of them and the distance between the two vehicles. Based on these measurements, Tesla calculates Headway, or the number of seconds you would have to react and stop if the vehicle in front of you came to a sudden stop. Unsafe following is the proportion of time where your vehicle’s headway is less than 1.0 seconds relative to the time that your vehicle’s headway is less than 3.0 seconds. Unsafe following is only measured when your vehicle is traveling at least 50 mph. The Safety Score can be improved by not tailgating or driving close to the vehicle in front of you so you have enough time to react.
    5. Forced Autopilot Disengagement: If you remove your hands from the steering wheel during Autopilot, an audio and visual warning is sent to the driver. Three of these warnings result in Autopilot system disengagement for the remainder of a trip.
    *Not factored into the Safety Score formula when on Autopilot
    These factors are measured directly by the Tesla models using various sensors on the vehicle and Autopilot software. Although this is a significant step forward in Tesla’s insurance journey, The Safety Score isn’t something that’s new.
    Many major U.S personal auto insurers have introduced optional UBI programs that assign a score to the driver. Nonetheless, there are a couple of meaningful items that differentiate Tesla.
    Some of the factors introduced by Tesla in Texas are different to what other insurance carriers have. For example, Progressive doesn’t have forward collision warnings or unsafe following as factors. On the other hand, Progressive includes late night driving and driving less overall as factors within their UBI program. Tesla is likely to introduce new factors and tweak existing factors within the Safety Score as more data becomes available.
    Unlike other major carriers, Tesla doesn't require and additional device to be installed in the vehicle to capture driving behavior. Tesla uses specific features within the vehicle to evaluate premium based on actual driving.
    The Safety Score is updated daily to provide real-time feedback on driving safety. The daily Safety Scores are combined (up to 30 days) to provide a premium based on the months’ driving activity. Below is an example of how the premium could change based on the score by month. Traditional insurance carriers don’t offer daily updates and change in premiums by month. Instead, it’s typical to have a monitoring period of 6 months before receiving a score and change in premium.
    Based on the introduction of the Safety Score and partnership with Repoint Insurance, Tesla Insurance is the cheapest option for full coverage in Texas.
    Lastly, and most importantly, the company will be able to leverage first party data to predict collision frequency due to the technology within Tesla cars. Other insurance carriers will likely have to partner with different manufacturers to capture data within cars at the point of sale, Tesla already has first party data.
    CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn, explained:
    At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety.
    We've been able to go back and analyze that data and we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using safety score versus not is 30% lower. That's a pretty big difference.
    It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiplex difference in probability of collision based upon actual data.
    Tesla is looking at hundreds of different variables and billions of miles of driving history to predict loss frequency and price each risk individually. The dataset will continue to grow and get better as Tesla sells more cars and as people drive more. Tesla is planning to launch personal auto insurance in every major market in which they have cars.
    Tesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering
    Tesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering
    Tesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering
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    ouySFiuuNu liked and commented on
    "Regulation is coming to the crypto markets, but it will be a slow, measured process," writes Rosenblatt analyst Sean Horgan in a note summing up the firm's first two discussions with former markets regulators.
    Brett Redfearn, former director of Division of Trading & Markets at the SEC and former head of capital markets at $Coinbase(COIN.US)$, and Dorothy DeWitt, former director of the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight and former VP and general counsel for Business Lines and Markets at Coinbase were the first two speakers in a series on cryptocurrency regulation.
    Both thought it unlikely that the government would create a new federal regulator for cryptocurrency, as Coinbase has suggested, given that would be the most costly option. Redfearn expects that the SEC may get the mandate due to its sway on Capitol Hill and its investor protection focus.
    DeWitt sees the potential for the Treasury and banking regulators overseeing stablecoin, while the SEC or CFTC may get oversight of non-stablecoin areas.
    She expects stablecoin issuers will be treated like banks with heavy regulation going forward, given the proposals from the President's Working Group on Financial Markets earlier this month.
    Redfearn suggests that larger banks need to delve into adopting crypto assets because of the threat from decentralized finance applications moving finance out of the banks and into the hands of individuals, who are trying to disintermediate banks, Horgan said.
    He said that companies resisting regulatory changes may "capture more market share in the short term, but those who are proactive as they anticipate regulation will benefit in the long term," according to Horgan's note. The analyst sees that as benefiting $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$ and a negative for Coinbase, $Tether(USDT.CC)$, and BlockFi.
    The two former regulators also discussed the potential for stricter regulations on payment for order flow (PFOF), which would affect stocks like Robinhood and $Virtu Financial(VIRT.US)$.
    Redfearn expects crypto PFOF to be handled separately from equity and options PFOF. Most of the focus currently appears to be on equity PFOF; that's a positive for Robinhood, Horgan said, as its revenue from equity PFOF is shrinking as a percentage of its PFOF revenue.
    In August, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said a full ban on PFOF was on the table.
    In crypto news today, U.S. banking regulators will focus on custody, trading, stablecoins in crypto sprint
    $Bitcoin(BTC.CC)$ $Dogecoin(DOGE.CC)$ $Ethereum(ETH.CC)$
    Cryptocurrency regulation will be a slow, measured process, Rosenblatt says
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