Wholesale prices post unexpected decline of 0.1% in February; retail sales fall
Wholesale prices posted an unexpected decline in February, providing some encouraging news on inflation as the Federal Reserve weighs its next move on interest rates.
The producer price index fell 0.1% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% increase and compared to a 0.3% gain in January. On a 12-month basis, the index increased 4.6%, well below the downwardly revised 5.7% level from the previous mon...
The producer price index fell 0.1% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% increase and compared to a 0.3% gain in January. On a 12-month basis, the index increased 4.6%, well below the downwardly revised 5.7% level from the previous mon...
Disney Beat Earnings but...
Revenue +8% Y/Y to $23.5B($0.2B beat).
Non-GAAP EPS $0.99($0.20 beat).
Media not profitable:Can't imagine Disney produce so many good movies... but can't make a profit from them
Jobs & Budget cuts:- Firing 7,000 employees & slashing $5.5B in cost.
- Catch-22 here: they need to trim expenses. But at the same time, they can't grow if they are trimming.
Dividends:Reintroducing dividends when the business segments & cash flow are not stabilized yet seems puz...
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Amazon Q4 FY22
• Rev +9% Y/Y to $149.2B ($3.4B beat).
• Operating margin 2% (-2pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.03 ($0.14 miss).
AWS:
• Revenue +20% Y/Y to $21.4B.
• Operating margin 24% (-6pp Y/Y).
Q1 FY23 Guidance:
• Revenue ~$123.5B ($2B miss).
Thoughts:
Growth slowdown:
The economy & recession is causing the business to slowdown, so revenue slowdown is expected. but i would like to see it pickling up again in 6-9 months' time.
(At such a large size, it's hard to keep growing at such a high pace to...
• Operating margin 2% (-2pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.03 ($0.14 miss).
AWS:
• Revenue +20% Y/Y to $21.4B.
• Operating margin 24% (-6pp Y/Y).
Q1 FY23 Guidance:
• Revenue ~$123.5B ($2B miss).
Thoughts:
Growth slowdown:
The economy & recession is causing the business to slowdown, so revenue slowdown is expected. but i would like to see it pickling up again in 6-9 months' time.
(At such a large size, it's hard to keep growing at such a high pace to...
GOOGL Q4 FY22
• Rev +1% Y/Y to $76.0B ($0.4B miss).
• Operating margin 24% (-5pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.05 ($0.14 beat).
YouTube ads -8% to $8.0B.
Google Cloud:
• Revenue +32% Y/Y to $7.3B.
• Operating margin -7% (+10pp Y/Y).
Restructuring costs in Q1 FY23 ~$2.6B.
Thoughts:
Google $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US$ missed all estimates.
Google's Q4 revenues increased only 1% over the previous year, the 3rd slowest growth rate in the company's history.
Cloud is the only segment that is pushing the business ahead rig...
• Operating margin 24% (-5pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.05 ($0.14 beat).
YouTube ads -8% to $8.0B.
Google Cloud:
• Revenue +32% Y/Y to $7.3B.
• Operating margin -7% (+10pp Y/Y).
Restructuring costs in Q1 FY23 ~$2.6B.
Thoughts:
Google $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US$ missed all estimates.
Google's Q4 revenues increased only 1% over the previous year, the 3rd slowest growth rate in the company's history.
Cloud is the only segment that is pushing the business ahead rig...
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Apple Q1 FY23
• Revenue -5% Y/Y to $117.2B ($4.5B miss).
Services +6% Y/Y to $20.8B.
Products -8% Y/Y to $96.4B.
• Operating margin 31% (-2pp Y/Y).
• Operating cash flow margin 29%.
• EPS $1.88 ($0.07 miss).
Segments growth in Q1 23:
- iPhone: -8% YoY
- Mac: -29% YoY
- Ipad: +30% YoY
- Wearables, Home & Accessories: -8% YoY
- Services: +6% YoY
Net sales: -5.5%
Summary:
Apple's fiscal Q1 revenue and EPS miss was the first in at least 20 quarters, if not longer.
However, the business's fu...
Services +6% Y/Y to $20.8B. Products -8% Y/Y to $96.4B.• Operating margin 31% (-2pp Y/Y).
• Operating cash flow margin 29%.
• EPS $1.88 ($0.07 miss).
Segments growth in Q1 23:
- iPhone: -8% YoY
- Mac: -29% YoY
- Ipad: +30% YoY
- Wearables, Home & Accessories: -8% YoY
- Services: +6% YoY
Net sales: -5.5%
Summary:
Apple's fiscal Q1 revenue and EPS miss was the first in at least 20 quarters, if not longer. However, the business's fu...1
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Meta Q4 Earnings
• DAU +5% Y/Y to 2.96B.
• Rev -4% Y/Y to $32.2B ($0.5B beat).
• Operating margin 20% (-17pp Y/Y).
• FCF margin 16% (-21pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.76 ($0.48 miss).
Q1 FY23 guidance:
• Revenue ~$27.3B (in-line).
Why the stock jump up 18%?
$40B Shares buyback
11,000 lay offs
Sometimes when the stock declines too much and is oversold, the rebound rally will be significant too.
$Meta Platforms(META.US$
• Rev -4% Y/Y to $32.2B ($0.5B beat).
• Operating margin 20% (-17pp Y/Y).
• FCF margin 16% (-21pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.76 ($0.48 miss).
Q1 FY23 guidance:
• Revenue ~$27.3B (in-line).
Why the stock jump up 18%?
$40B Shares buyback 11,000 lay offsSometimes when the stock declines too much and is oversold, the rebound rally will be significant too.
$Meta Platforms(META.US$
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AMD Q4 FY22
• Revenue +16% Y/Y to $5.6B ($80M beat).
• Gross margin 43% (-7pp Y/Y).
• Operating margin (3%) (-28pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.69 ($0.02 beat).
Q1 FY23 guidance:
• Revenue ~$5.3B ($0.2B miss).
AMD$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US$ beat on top & bottom.
Good results on console & data centres.
For a semi-con company, AMD is relatively diversified and decent quarter given the macros.
• Gross margin 43% (-7pp Y/Y).
• Operating margin (3%) (-28pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.69 ($0.02 beat).
Q1 FY23 guidance:
• Revenue ~$5.3B ($0.2B miss).
AMD$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US$ beat on top & bottom. Good results on console & data centres. For a semi-con company, AMD is relatively diversified and decent quarter given the macros.5
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PFE Earnings
- Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.14 beats by $0.10.
- Revenue of $24.3B (+1.9% Y/Y) misses by $100M.
2023 Guidance:
- Rev of $67.0 to $71.0 Billion vs. $74.23B consensus
- Adjusted Diluted EPS of $3.25 to $3.45 vs $4.38 consensus
Revenues from COVID-19 products expected to grow in 2024 after reaching a low point in 2023 due to significant government supply on hand to start the year.
- Revenue of $24.3B (+1.9% Y/Y) misses by $100M.
2023 Guidance:
- Rev of $67.0 to $71.0 Billion vs. $74.23B consensus
- Adjusted Diluted EPS of $3.25 to $3.45 vs $4.38 consensus
Revenues from COVID-19 products expected to grow in 2024 after reaching a low point in 2023 due to significant government supply on hand to start the year.
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Stunned Competitors Grapple With Tesla Price Cuts
Maintain price:
Lose market share
Increase price:
Lose more mrkt share, lose EV tax credit
Lower price:
Thin margins gets thinner: Lose even more money per car
Most automotive companies are caught between a rock and a hard place right now.
Wouldn't want to be in their shoes
$Tesla(TSLA.US$
Lose market shareIncrease price:
Lose more mrkt share, lose EV tax creditLower price:
Thin margins gets thinner: Lose even more money per carMost automotive companies are caught between a rock and a hard place right now.
Wouldn't want to be in their shoes
$Tesla(TSLA.US$
Taking Profits on Tesla
Over the weekend, I was considering taking profits on tranches I entered at $130 & $150.
I didn’t lose faith in Tesla$Tesla(TSLA.US$, fundamentals still remain strong.
I am selling partial shares to simply reduce my overall allocation down to 50%.
Tesla is still by far my biggest holdings
Also, tesla is very overbought right now. anticipating at least a slight pullback soon.
I didn’t lose faith in Tesla$Tesla(TSLA.US$, fundamentals still remain strong.
I am selling partial shares to simply reduce my overall allocation down to 50%.
Tesla is still by far my biggest holdings
Also, tesla is very overbought right now. anticipating at least a slight pullback soon.
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