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NCDEH6DMn7 Private ID: 70802337
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    NCDEH6DMn7 reacted to and commented on
    All $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ shareholders or pro Tesla people came here to mock $Lucid Group(LCID.US)$. haha.
    Well, just keep your fingers away from your keyboard and watch how Lucid will fly further, and then let your fingers to talk about your loving Tesla.
    The fact is that Lucid's EV quality and battery efficiency are way better than Tesla's. Stop denying, people!
    Elon's unethical behaving and actions in the capital market are already down signals for Tesla. You all Tesla shareholders better keep watching his share dumps will come in the near future. Don't forget Elon is more like investor not the true leader. He took the CEO title at Tesla as a narcissistic investor who unfairly treated the initial engineers. His involvement in coin market.... so unethical!
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    $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$One of the reasons I bought AMD at 35 then 52 then 106 is because THANKS TO AMD building a PC finally is affordable . Before AMD , Intel was super charging us and made so much money on our backs with overpriced products. I'll never forget that. So yes. AMD all the way.
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    NCDEH6DMn7 liked and commented on
    $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)$ trades lower on a Teslarati report that the EV maker will delay future deliveries of its R1T all-electric pickup and R1S all-electric pickup SUV until 2022.
    Teslarati sources and members of the Rivian Owners Forum have received emails stating that their pre-ordered R1S SUVs won't be delivered until March 2022 or later, months behind the original projection date of January 2022. Some R1T pre-orders have also been delayed according to sources.
    The email did not mention the production start date for the R1S, which was supposed to be in December 2021 but may not be on track given the delays.
    The breakdown through an informal poll on the Rivian forum:
    $Lucid Group(LCID.US)$$Tesla(TSLA.US)$$NIO Inc(NIO.US)$$XPeng(XPEV.US)$
    Rivian delays SUV deliveries until Spring 2022 at the earliest
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    NCDEH6DMn7 reacted to
    $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ Has anyone noticed the U.S. stock market is trading at 209% of GDP versus an average (across cycles) of 85%?
    When the housing bubble burst, this ratio fell all the way down to 50%.
    Inflation is rising.
    Rates are rising.
    Markets will...de-risk.
    There's a yawning gap between 209% and 85%...or 50%.
    The window is closing.
    Time to sell.
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    NCDEH6DMn7 liked and commented on
    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ is cooling off after gaining in five straight sessions.
    The stock is still up 6% over the last week and 27% over the last six weeks.
    Trading volume today on TSLA is more than 30M shares.
    Despite the trillion dollar market cap for Tesla, the stock still has the fifth highest rating on moomoo in the auto sector.
    Why is Tesla stock dipping today?
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    NCDEH6DMn7 reacted to
    Squid game is the hottest series on $Netflix(NFLX.US)$ right now, in which 456 players join a game of death, where they have a chance to win 456 Billion Korean Won (KRW), or 38.5 Milllion US Dollars.
    What’s interesting about this series is that it depicts human sentiment in a very realistic way. We could see how market participants think and act by looking at the participants of the squid game.
    A random guy appears at the subway station, and offers to play card flip, where he’d slap the player if he wins, and pay $100 if he loses. He actually ends up paying the players, stimulating their curiosity. Later, players are taken to a remote island where they have no clue what game they’re playing, with hopes of potentially winning life-changing money.
    Beginners Luck turns to Attribution Bias
    People who join the stock market are not different. They don’t know what game they’re playing, and what rules there are. Just as the subway guy invokes curiosity from the players by paying them small amounts of actual money, people are dragged into the stock market through stories of their friends and acquaintances making life-changing money by trading.
    You try to remember the name of the stock or cryptocurrency your friend mentioned, and buy it without doing any due dilligence. You participate in the game of the market with 0 understanding of the game and rules.
    When the stock/crypto you bought goes up (by chance), you fall into the trap of beginner’s luck. Beginner’s luck refers to a phenomenon or situation in which a beginner experiences a disproportionate ferquency of success against even experts in a certain field or activity. It’s often used in gambling and sports. But beginner’s luck leads to overconfidence and attribution bias.
    Overconfidence refers to one’s excessive trust in his decisions based on gut-feeling and his cognitive abilities. This often leads to overtrading, and the market participant ends up paying excessive trading fees. Overconfident traders also tend to neglect statistics, and put all their eggs in one basket. They hardly listen to other people, and tend to choose the stocks/crypto they invest in themselves.
    Attribution bias, or cognitive bias, is when people find reasons for their own and others’ behaviors. So when they’re in profit, they think that it’s all thanks to their amazing prediction. When they’re at a loss, it’s because the market was in an unfavorable situation, or simply because they were unlucky. Essentially, they constantly come up with excuses for every situation.
    We all know Isaac Newton as a genius physicist, but he was a failure as an investor. He made the wrong investment decision when he invested in South Sea stocks, which led him to lose 20,000 pounds (about $4M today). He lost most of his life savings and famously said that “you can calculate the motions of heavenly stars, but not the madness of people” - a classic example of someone with attribution bias.
    Mob Psychology and the Bandwagon Effect
    This is accurately reflected in Squid Game. When players play ‘Red Light Green Light’, they are shocked to see other players get massacred. After the game is over, they later vote whether they want to continue playing the game or not. The surviving players fall into the trap of overconfidence and attribution bias.
    Only 1 person out or 456 will survive and win the prize money. Statistically, every player has a 0.22% chance of survival. While this is statistically low, they’re taken away by the pile of cash hanging from the ceiling, and start believing that they’re special, and that they can win. Lotteries and gambling work in the same way, in which people bet on a probable case that is close to impossible. Sadly, most people approach trading like gambling.
    In Squid Game, right before they play tug of war, a riot breaks out, and players are split into different factions. So when they’re told to team up for tug of war, teams are formed based on the factions that were formed the day before. This shows us mob psychology and the bandwagon effect.
    Mob psychology, or mob mentaility, is when people follow the actions and behaviors of their peers when in large groups. The bandwagon effect falls within the scope of mob mentaility, and is a phenomenon in which people do something primarily because others are doing it , regardless of their own beliefs.
    The same psychological phenomena can be applied to investors and traders in the market. Instead of trading based on their own trading rules, strategies, and analyses, they simply follow the actions of other market participants. These are the people who end up panic buying or selling, and falling victim to pump and dump schemes.
    Conclusion
    These psychological phenomena prevents us from making the right decisions in the market, and making the wrong decisions indicates that we lose money. Just like how most people in the Squid Game end up dying, there are many other people who entered the market with dreams of becoming a millionaire, only to lose everything. But unlike the Squid Game, the financial markets isn’t a winner-takes-all. If you can understand the characteristics and rules of each market, and do your due diligence on different ways to beat the market, you can have a statistical edge. As a trader, I would say that technical knowledge accounts to less than 5% of what it takes to be successful. It’s more about understanding your cognitive bias and controlling your emotions and psychological state.
    The Squid Game Shows Why Most People Don’t Make Money Trading
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    NCDEH6DMn7 liked and commented on
    $Alibaba(BABA.US)$ Munger added 80% and Dalio 130%, also Al Gore and Tudor Jones added 40% and 170% respectively only Cathy Wood dropped BABA this Q and we all know she sells a lot of smoke.
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    $Apple(AAPL.US)$ Apple is widening its moat little by little but constantly. Apple Services used to be only iTunes and see it now: Music, TV+, iCloud, Fitness+, Arcade, Apple Card, Apple Cash, Apple Pay. Less visible but even more profound, I think, is Apple Silicon. The integration among its hardware, software and services is the best available by far. Money printing machine, +$1B revenue per day. Crazy!
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    NCDEH6DMn7 liked and commented on
    The$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US)$-1.3% falls the most among the three broad stock market indexes at Monday's close, struggling as a rebound in rates hit growth names and megacaps also face selling pressure.
    Names like$DoorDash(DASH.US)$and$Peloton Interactive(PTON.US)$and other shares that gained during the pandemic are sliding.
    The$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$-0.3% finishes the session lower, while the$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$+0.1% performs the best thanks to price gains from$Goldman Sachs(GS.US)$and$JPMorgan(JPM.US)$.
    Six of the 11 S&P sectors are higher, led by Energy and Financials. Communication Services fall the most.
    The megacaps are mostly lower, with$Amazon(AMZN.US)$the worst performer.
    "The SPX continues to consolidate within a bullish pennant formation," Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler says. "A close above 4,705 would validate a topside breakout. While last week’s advance lacked participation, the bullish breakouts and/or improving technical setups among its mega-caps is encouraging."
    The$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD)$yield is up 8 basis points to 1.62%, while the$U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US2Y.BD)$is also up 8 points to 0.59%.
    Rates rose after news hit that the White House is renominating Chairman Jerome Powell, while naming Lael Brainard as vice chair.
    "This decision also removes uncertainty with Powell’s current term ending in February," ING says. "Had there been any delay in appointing a new Chair due to a lack of political support this could have caused significant financial market nervousness, particularly if we are right and the economy is soaring, inflation is above 6% and the Fed is still stimulating the economy with QE."
    October existing home sales rose unexpectedly to 6.34M.
    "Another upside surprise relative to both the mortgage applications numbers and the pending sales index, leaving sales at a nine-month high, after reversing about three-fifths of the drop in the first half of the year," Pantheon Macro's Ian Shepherdson writes. "Most of the increase in recent months, and all the October gain, is in the core single-family home component; condo/co-op sales dipped last month."
    On the M&A front Monster Beverage is reportedly looking for a deal with Constellation.
    Dow Jones gains slightly at the close, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide as yields surge
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    Higher interest rates will be a defining characteristic of the markets next year and many high-quality stocks also have growth profiles that make them sensitive to rate changes, $Goldman Sachs(GS.US)$ says.
    In Goldman's equity outlook for 2022, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin and team look at how investors need to look at what they call "duration" in growth.
    Stocks with high revenue projections and low profit or negative margins have "long duration" and are vulnerable to increases in interest rates.
    "Growth stocks with high profit margins outperformed unprofitable growth stocks when real rates jumped in 1Q 2021, and profitable stocks should remain resilient if rates rise in 2022," Kostin says.
    "Stocks with valuations entirely dependent on future growth are vulnerable to a dramatic drop in price if rates rise sharply or revenue growth expectations are reduced," he says. "This latter risk was exemplified by the sharp underperformance of some notable high growth, low earnings companies following disappointing 3Q 2021 results and lowered forward revenue guidance."
    Because interest rates are so low now, high-growth extremely profitable stocks trade at similar valuations to high-growth stocks with low profitability, he adds.
    Goldman ran screens for strong revenue growth stocks with high and low margins. Both screens exclude Financials.
    High margin stocks. $Russell 3000 Index Ishares(IWV.US)$ companies with market cap over $2B, consensus 2023 revenue growth over 15% and 2023 margins over 20%:
    1. $Halozyme Therapeutics(HALO.US)$, consensus sales CAGR 2021-23 is 30%, consensus 2023 profit margin is 63%
    2. $Marathon Digital(MARA.US)$, sales 105%, margin 51%
    3. $MasterCard(MA.US)$, sales 18%, margin 47%
    4. $Riot Platforms(RIOT.US)$, sales 69%, margin 46%
    5. $MP Materials(MP.US)$, sales 50%, margin 45%
    6. $United Therapeutics(UTHR.US)$, sales 13%, margin 42%
    7. $Aspen Technology(AZPN.US)$, sales 13%, margin 41%
    8. $Universal Display(OLED.US)$, sales 20%, margin 38%
    9. $Harmony Biosciences(HRMY.US)$, sales 52%, margin 37%
    10. $Marvell Technology(MRVL.US)$, sales 20%, margin 35%
    Low profit stocks. Russell 3000 companies with market cap above $5B, consensus 2023 revenue growth over 15% and 2023 net profit margins less than 5%:
    1. $DraftKings(DKNG.US)$, consensus sales CAGR 2021-23 40%, consensus 2023 net loss $722M, consensus 2023 margin -29%
    2. $Snowflake(SNOW.US)$, sales 62%, loss $694M, maring -24%
    3. $Nikola(NKLA.US)$, sales 1,414%, loss $487M, margin -63%
    4. $Guardant Health(GH.US)$, sales 32%, loss $377M, margin -60%
    5. $Lyft Inc(LYFT.US)$, sales 31%, loss $330M, margin -6%
    6. $Wix.com(WIX.US)$, sales 22%, loss $328M, margin -17%
    7. $Smartsheet(SMAR.US)$, sales 29%, loss $254M, margin -29%
    8. $Pacific Biosciences of California(PACB.US)$, sales 41%, loss $250M, margin -96%
    9. $BILL Holdings(BILL.US)$, sales 50%, loss $244M, margin -28%
    10. $Oak Street Health(OSH.US)$, sales 51%, loss $244M, margin -7%
    Goldman picks best high-growth stocks for rising rates in '22
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