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70630239 Private ID: 70630239
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    When to buy and when to sell is always the biggest question to answer.
    We tend to get fearful as stocks go down and sell at the bottom. We tend to get fearful of missing out as stocks go up and buy at the top.

    So what should we do?
    (Before you start, you should always know your risk profile and investment time horizon.)
    Here is the process that I follow.
    First, I look at the macro level to identify trends.
    Some points to consider:
    1. What is a growing trend?
    2. What is changing ?
    3. What is not changing?
    4. Who and what is a disruptor?
    Once you identify the trends, you can zoom into the specifc companies.
    I use a checklist to evaluate the companies before I invest and develop your thesis. A thesis is very important because it will gives you conviction when the market is down.
    Checklist include:
    - financials
    - management of company
    - moat
    - Potential,optionality, network effect
    $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ is one of the great example of how it expand its optionality. It grew from a bookshop to a leading ecommerce to the leading cloud services company. Its early investors are greatly rewarded.
    Lastly, I also use dollar cost averaging when I buy a stock.
    Selling is as hard as buying. So the stock that you bought have doubled. Do you sell?
    I think it depends on what type of investor you are. If you are a short term trader, cashing out for profit is fine. As a long term investor, if your thesis remain unchange and the business is continuing to grow, I will continue to hold.
    I will sell if:
    - Original thesis changed.
    - Business on continue decline, for more than 2 qtrs.$StarHub(CC3.SG)$ was showing weakness for a while before its share price slowly declined.
    - Red flag spotted. For example, $Hyflux(600.SG)$ was showing warning signs when they borrowed a lot and borrowed to pay dividends.
    There are so many great companies out there. $Apple(AAPL.US)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ , $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ just to name a few.
    By having your own system, it will make your investment process better and hopefully more successful.
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    There is no one best way to determine when to buy and sell stocks of $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$, $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$, $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$. The chosen strategy depends on our investment goals, investment philosophy and investment time horizon. The investment strategy I follow is one based on Warren Buffett's value investing model. The stock investing decisions will be made on the basis of risk evaluation. The three main risks are company, valuation and earnings risks. When the underlying company is great in terms of management and shows consistently high profitability, the company risk is low. When we are patient enough to buy a fundamentally well run company with sustainable competitive advantage whose stock price is at a steep discount to its intrinsic value, our valuation risk is low. When a company's earnings remain strong, the earnings risk is low. Once we are able to find a stock that that signals low risk based on these three conditions, it is time to buy. Even if the price were to dip in the short run, as long as our investment thesis is still valid, our focus should be on long term gains as fundamentally strong stocks tend to always go higher in the long run. Whenever a negative change happens to any of the three conditions,  it is time to sell. When it comes to selling, we may decide to sell stocks once the price gets close to their fair value which implies that there is limited upside left and we could then reinvest the proceeds into stocks with higher potential upside for better returns.
    $Apple(AAPL.US)$
    $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$
    $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$
    $Amazon(AMZN.US)$
    $Facebook(FB.US)$
    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$
    $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$
    $Visa(V.US)$
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    When to buy:
    1. The underlying company is great
    2. It is selling for much less than it is worth
    3. Consistently high profitability
    4. Low debt levels
    5. Able to pay its short-term obligations
    6. Has a durable competitive advantage
    7. When it's current stock price is at least 25% lower than its intrinsic value.
    When to sell:
    1. Price reaches value.
    2. Long-term problems arise
    3. A better opportunity becomes available.
    The wisest rule in investment is: when others are selling, buy. When others are buying, sell. Usually, of course, we do the opposite. When everyone else is buying, we assume they know something we don't, so we buy. Then people start selling, panic sets in, and we sell too.
    3
    Investment is very simple, you can just follow the trend; but sometimes it’s extremely hard for human nature.ChuckleInvestors like to complicate the simple things, and they are anxious about the buying/selling points.ShockedShockedShocked I think the way to profit is not to see the market correctly, but to have the arrogance to gain a lot when you follow the trend properly, and the courage to face the failure. Investors must learn to move forward in the mist and strengthen their confidence.
    1. Cut loss and let profit run
    I think investment is essentially a risk management game, not a profit-seeking. We have to set the stop loss level reasonably, since the indicator is what we can control, the profit is controlled by the market.Doge
    Recently I pay attention to  $Lucid Group(LCID.US)$  which is the combination of  $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ and  $Ferrari(RACE.US)$ , I like this new energy car which appearance is high-end, so I bought the stock at $22.
    2. Buying stocks is buying companies
    Trend investors buy at a high price after an uptrend is formed which take advantage of the trend, and sell them at a higher price when the market changes.Trick When buying at a low price and the downtrend is forming, they should sell them at a lower price decisively so as not to loss much. Stock picking is not as good as picking time, and picking time is inferior to picking momentum.
    For example, once my dad posited in  $Sea(SE.US)$  at 35 dollars, now the price has risen 10 times. This company directly copied the business models of  $TENCENT(00700.HK)$  and  $Alibaba(BABA.US)$  to Southeast Asia, and has ranked first in games and e-commerce in most countries. I am very optimistic about the company, so I bought it.
    3. Read more investment books
    I like to find answers in books, so I read a lot of classics which are written by Warren E. Buffett/Philip A. Fisher/Charlie Thomas Munger/Benjamin Graham/John Templeton/Peter Lynch. The stock market rises slowly but falls quickly, because the explosive power of fear far exceeds the desire of greed. The prices need purchasing power to rise, but can fall freely as long as their own gravity! Buffett said: "As long as an investor can avoid big mistakes, he won't worry about it next ".LaughLaughLaugh
    There is no “best” points for buying/selling, what we can do is to find the "most suitable" one. Every point of the transaction is the result of careful consideration, but there is no guarantee that every step is correct. I have heard lots of theories which are so difficult to implement. It is difficult to invest in terms of waiting, upholding and being emotional. Fundamentally speaking, it’s hard for us to break through ourselves.
    Follow the current trend to buy/sell
    Follow the current trend to buy/sell
    Follow the current trend to buy/sell
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