Scottie Hatmaker
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GENTING Genting - Can we go to bottom now? [CC ENGLISH ENG SUB]
$GENTING(3182.MY$
GENTING Genting - Can we go to bottom now? [CC ENGLISH ENG SUB]
$GENTING(3182.MY$
GENTING Genting - Can we go to bottom now? [CC ENGLISH ENG SUB]
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Scottie Hatmaker
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Scottie Hatmaker
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Fellow Investors:
I have been telling everyone for quite a while that $Meta Platforms(FB.US$ and $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ are two of the best buys with the best balance sheets, along with deep and wide moats filled with crocs.
I urge investors when they can, to get out of companies that have no earnings, have no margins, because investing them is, at best, "betting on the come." And people who place their money in companies that are eventually supposed to do all these great things that they're not currently able to do, usually lose money, and are sorely disappointed. This is especially true of the most potently hyped companies.
I have been telling everyone for quite a while that $Meta Platforms(FB.US$ and $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ are two of the best buys with the best balance sheets, along with deep and wide moats filled with crocs.
I urge investors when they can, to get out of companies that have no earnings, have no margins, because investing them is, at best, "betting on the come." And people who place their money in companies that are eventually supposed to do all these great things that they're not currently able to do, usually lose money, and are sorely disappointed. This is especially true of the most potently hyped companies.
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$Microsoft(MSFT.US$ I'm forced to use MS Teams since it's what the DOD has purchased. I hate it. Confusing at times. We usually leave our cameras off because it bogs down if too many video feeds are running.
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Canada's government has officially excluded $Boeing(BA.US$ Super Hornet from the bidding for a potential C$19B (US$14.8B) contract to build 88 new fighter jets to replace the military's aging CF-18s.
The move by Public Services and Procurement Canada means $Lockheed Martin(LMT.US$ F-35 stealth fighter and Saab's Gripen are the only two aircraft still in contention.
The Super Hornet and F-35 were viewed by some observers as the only real competition because of Canada's relationship with the U.S., which includes using fighter jets together to defend North American air space, while Sweden - Saab's home - is not a member of NATO or NORAD.
Boeing saysit is "working with the U.S. and Canadian governments to better understand the decision and looking for the earliest date to request a debrief to then determine our path forward."
According to a report yesterday, Boeing is in the lead to win an order for nearly 50 freighter planes from Qatar Airways.
The move by Public Services and Procurement Canada means $Lockheed Martin(LMT.US$ F-35 stealth fighter and Saab's Gripen are the only two aircraft still in contention.
The Super Hornet and F-35 were viewed by some observers as the only real competition because of Canada's relationship with the U.S., which includes using fighter jets together to defend North American air space, while Sweden - Saab's home - is not a member of NATO or NORAD.
Boeing saysit is "working with the U.S. and Canadian governments to better understand the decision and looking for the earliest date to request a debrief to then determine our path forward."
According to a report yesterday, Boeing is in the lead to win an order for nearly 50 freighter planes from Qatar Airways.
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Scottie Hatmaker
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$Altimeter Growth Corp(AGC.US$ $Grab Holdings(GRAB.US$ Grab's earnings report puts a lot of emphasis on Adjusted Net Sales where Adjusted Net Sales = Revenue + consumer incentives and excess driver/merchant incentives. This will mislead investors and exaggerate the company's actual performance. Firstly, incentives-fueled growth is not sustainable due to cash burns and reliance on subsidies from external parties. Secondly, according to Grab:
Grab presents Adjusted Net Sales as a metric to compare, and to enable investors to compare, its aggregate operating results in the absence of excess incentives, which are intended to be temporary drivers of growth, and which Grab plans to reduce in the future. Grab’s management believes Adjusted Net Sales captures significant trends in its business over time.
Therefore, incentives should be removed from any form of Grab's performance analysis. Unfortunately, Grab's performance after removing incentives doesn't look optimistic. Grab's revenue decreased by 16% quarter over quarter, despite an increase in adjusted net sales of 8%. This suggests that incentives fueled the bulk of its expansion. According to the numbers, Grab upped its incentives by 27% quarter over quarter. However, the 27 percent increase in incentives resulted in just a 3.78 percent rise in monthly transacting users (MTU) and a 2.6 percent increase in GMV per MTU. This has several consequences. To begin, the considerable increase of incentives but just a modest increase in growth indicates an aging market.
On the other hand, with Uber as comps, Grab's valuation of $60bn implies a (revised) CAGR of 35% + a full recovery of its ride-hailing business to pre-pandemic levels. This causes a discrepancy between its valuation and growth expectations. A bear-case scenario will see Grab's share price mirror $Zoom Video Communications(ZM.US$ decline after reporting slowing growth.
Let's examine whether Q3 performance can turn things around for Grab.
Figure 1: Grab's 2021Q1 Quarterly Performance
Figure 2: Grab's 2021Q2 Quarterly Performance
Grab presents Adjusted Net Sales as a metric to compare, and to enable investors to compare, its aggregate operating results in the absence of excess incentives, which are intended to be temporary drivers of growth, and which Grab plans to reduce in the future. Grab’s management believes Adjusted Net Sales captures significant trends in its business over time.
Therefore, incentives should be removed from any form of Grab's performance analysis. Unfortunately, Grab's performance after removing incentives doesn't look optimistic. Grab's revenue decreased by 16% quarter over quarter, despite an increase in adjusted net sales of 8%. This suggests that incentives fueled the bulk of its expansion. According to the numbers, Grab upped its incentives by 27% quarter over quarter. However, the 27 percent increase in incentives resulted in just a 3.78 percent rise in monthly transacting users (MTU) and a 2.6 percent increase in GMV per MTU. This has several consequences. To begin, the considerable increase of incentives but just a modest increase in growth indicates an aging market.
On the other hand, with Uber as comps, Grab's valuation of $60bn implies a (revised) CAGR of 35% + a full recovery of its ride-hailing business to pre-pandemic levels. This causes a discrepancy between its valuation and growth expectations. A bear-case scenario will see Grab's share price mirror $Zoom Video Communications(ZM.US$ decline after reporting slowing growth.
Let's examine whether Q3 performance can turn things around for Grab.
Figure 1: Grab's 2021Q1 Quarterly Performance
Figure 2: Grab's 2021Q2 Quarterly Performance
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$MasterCard(MA.US$ Seems like they went with a smaller than usual div increase but larger buyback. Makes sense, I hope they increase the pace of buybacks as the current $4.4B outstanding means they bought back around $800m in q4 so far. Should be far more at these prices.
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$Crude Oil Futures(JUN4)(CLmain.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ I use about 300-400 gallons of gas a year. So let me sell my car, and buy a $45k car to save about $1k a year. My ROI is only forever. It would take me 3.3 years just to make up on the sales tax.
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An ugly day for the stock market was especially rough on $AT&T(T.US$, which slipped 4.4% on the day to seal its worst month in a year and a half - and reach its lowest point since the Global Financial Crisis, more than a decade ago.
That came as a presentation from Communications chief Jeff McElfresh raised new concerns about user growth in the wireless industry.
Speaking at a Wells Fargo conference, McElfresh worked to highlight momentum in mobility, saying over the past five quarters AT&T has delivered its best subscriber results in a decade (including nearly 4 million postpaid phone net additions, and 1.4 million fiber net adds).
"Total tonnage of EBITDA in the third quarter of '21 was a high-water mark for us," he says, noting Wireless raised its EBITDA by nearly 3.6%.
He added that the company's "three key elements" - simplified plans and targeted sub-segment approach, improved customer experience and network performance - are leading to lower churn and increased customer lifetime value.
He reiterated, though, that the outlook for 2022 and beyond doesn't assume a continuation of the outsized trends in net adds that we've seen.
"There's no doubt that the stimulus programs have put some extra cash in household budgets" this year, he says. "And so we're not expecting that level of activity to continue into 2022 and beyond. In fact, in a three-player market with the integration between Sprint and T-Mobile, we suspect the activity level for postpaid in 2022 is probably going to subside." AT&T does expect to take "more than our fair share," however, and he adds their guidance doesn't depend on outsized postpaid growth.
Expectations that average revenue per user on postpaid phones will stabilize next year means the company expects higher service revenues from the growing base, he says. Fewer than a quarter of gross adds and upgrades in Q3 traded in newer devices for premium promotional offers, and only about 20% of the company's postpaid smartphones are on Unlimited Elite, its highest-ARPU and fastest growing rate plan.
McElfresh's comments about dwindling industry user growth ahead did no favors for AT&T's wireless rivals today. $T-Mobile US(TMUS.US$fell 4.1% (again, also amid a marketwide sell-off), and $Verizon(VZ.US$fell 2.7%. $Dish Network(DISH.US$, set to become the fourth national player in wireless over time, tumbled 5.7% today.
That came as a presentation from Communications chief Jeff McElfresh raised new concerns about user growth in the wireless industry.
Speaking at a Wells Fargo conference, McElfresh worked to highlight momentum in mobility, saying over the past five quarters AT&T has delivered its best subscriber results in a decade (including nearly 4 million postpaid phone net additions, and 1.4 million fiber net adds).
"Total tonnage of EBITDA in the third quarter of '21 was a high-water mark for us," he says, noting Wireless raised its EBITDA by nearly 3.6%.
He added that the company's "three key elements" - simplified plans and targeted sub-segment approach, improved customer experience and network performance - are leading to lower churn and increased customer lifetime value.
He reiterated, though, that the outlook for 2022 and beyond doesn't assume a continuation of the outsized trends in net adds that we've seen.
"There's no doubt that the stimulus programs have put some extra cash in household budgets" this year, he says. "And so we're not expecting that level of activity to continue into 2022 and beyond. In fact, in a three-player market with the integration between Sprint and T-Mobile, we suspect the activity level for postpaid in 2022 is probably going to subside." AT&T does expect to take "more than our fair share," however, and he adds their guidance doesn't depend on outsized postpaid growth.
Expectations that average revenue per user on postpaid phones will stabilize next year means the company expects higher service revenues from the growing base, he says. Fewer than a quarter of gross adds and upgrades in Q3 traded in newer devices for premium promotional offers, and only about 20% of the company's postpaid smartphones are on Unlimited Elite, its highest-ARPU and fastest growing rate plan.
McElfresh's comments about dwindling industry user growth ahead did no favors for AT&T's wireless rivals today. $T-Mobile US(TMUS.US$fell 4.1% (again, also amid a marketwide sell-off), and $Verizon(VZ.US$fell 2.7%. $Dish Network(DISH.US$, set to become the fourth national player in wireless over time, tumbled 5.7% today.
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