The original English version of this article was first published on January 15
In this article, I'd like to share with you another way to gain an advantage in trading. This method is related to public information. Most people either don't know they have this information or don't know how to use it to their advantage.
This approach looks at “insider buys.”
Company insiders are the management team, board members, or shareholders who hold at least 5% of the company's shares. They can get information that the public can't get, but they can't trade based on that information because it's illegal “insider trading.”
Legitimate insider trading is different.
These insiders are allowed to trade based on publicly available information and their in-depth knowledge of the business. In most cases, they have to report their trades to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) within two days, then their trading information is made public.
If you know how to interpret this information, they can alert you to a great opportunity to trade.
You need to know that not all insider purchases are important; in order to select important information, you need to figure out the following questions.
1. Question 1: Who is buying it?
Generally speaking, you want the highest-level insiders, that is, company executives, such as the CEO (CEO), chief financial officer (CFO), and chief operating officer (COO), to buy.
Often these insiders know more about the details of a company's operations than anyone else, so when the market abuses the company's stock too much...

Megatrend investing can generate attractive returns, but with one condition: you need to reinvest when no one is paying attention or when everyone is shying away from these assets.
Even if you notice an obvious major trend, if other investors are already betting on this opportunity, your earnings will still be affected.
This is exactly what happened to all investors in one sector last year.
Below I'll share what happened in that section, what we can learn from it, and how to avoid this trap.
The story behind an obvious megatrend is always fascinating, especially the kind of investment theme that will change our lives for decades to come.
Investors who are betting on this investment theme are generally right. The sector they are entering is likely to take off in the next few years, but this doesn't change the basic principle of investment: if the timing is wrong, you will still suffer huge losses.
The section we're talking about today is the clean energy section.
Investors' enthusiasm for clean energy was high in 2020. Ford Motor unveiled the all-electric Mustang Mach-E, switching from its most characteristic muscle car to an electric car. In the same year, GM also launched an all-electric SUV. Honda plans to launch an all-electric SUV called Honda ProLogue in 2024.
In addition to the above companies, Jaguar, Cadillac, Volvo and other car brands plan to only produce electric cars by 2030.
Not only are automobile companies promoting the development of clean energy, the US...

The S&P 500 is often seen as a weather vane for the US economy, but don't be fooled by it sometimes.
Today's S&P 500 Index is different from what it used to be. Today, only a few companies account for the majority of the S&P 500 Index's constituent stocks.
A few companies refer to “FAAMG” companies, including Meta Platform (FB), Apple (Apple), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL).
The total market capitalization of these five companies accounts for 22.3% of the S&P 500 index. If you add Tesla (TSLA) with a listing value of $1.1 trillion, the market capitalization of these six companies accounts for a quarter of the S&P 500 index.
Therefore, although the S&P 500 originally represents a broad range of markets, many times its trend is directly related to these big tech giants.
Other smaller companies may be in trouble, and their stock prices may fall, but if the shares of these 6 tech giants rise, the S&P 500 index may also rise. As a result, it is often difficult to tell whether a bull market is actually healthy or whether it is supported by just a few companies.
One way to assess this is to look at the rising and falling lines of the S&P 500 index.
The rise and fall line is a simple evaluation indicator. The number of stocks that have risen on a certain day is subtracted from the number of stocks that have fallen. If there are many stocks that have risen on the same day, the rise and fall line will rise; if there are more falling stocks, the rise and fall line...

Consumer necessities stocks were among the top performers in the stock market over the past month. The benchmark S&P 500 index has fallen 0.9% since December 10, while the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index (S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index) has risen 4%.
As we all know, consumer necessities are stores and items that people cannot live without in their daily lives, such as grocery stores, food companies, and household goods manufacturers such as toilet paper, toothpaste, and garbage bags. These are all sources of major necessities.
Regardless of the economic situation, people always have to go to these stores to buy these products, so these companies don't need to experience drastic demand fluctuations like other economic sectors. Additionally, due to their stability, these companies often pay growing dividends to shareholders on a regular basis.
The combination of these two major advantages makes consumer necessities a “risk-averse” sector. Investors tend to transfer capital to this sector when other sectors of the market seem risky.
Recently, the stock market is quite risky. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index (one of the most popular “venture capital” sectors) has fallen 5% in the past month, and many individual stocks within this sector have fallen even worse.
However, the rise in consumer goods stock prices may lose momentum, at least in the short term.
One of our favorite ways to assess trader sentiment is to look at the Bulls Percentage Index (BPI). What BPI tracks is a...

1. What needs to be done is not prediction, but risk assessment
For humans, the world is difficult to predict, mainly because the future is unpredictable.
We live in a complex, interconnected world, and no one knows for sure what will happen next.
Looking back at recent major events in the market, any real assessment would agree; they are unpredictable.
No one specifically predicted the COVID-19 outbreak, and we don't know where it began. In fact, looking back in the past, we haven't even fully understood its origin.
The amazing bull market that followed also seemed unpredictable. The stock market experienced a crazy bull market after the global lockdown, which was unprecedented in history.
Other market drivers are not non-artificial “black swans” (like COVID-19), but rather a decision made by a small group of people, which could play any driving role.
Although it is impossible to predict outbreaks, when you carefully assess risk, you can estimate the likelihood of such a situation occurring, even if you don't know exactly when or how it will occur.
However, these are assessments of risk, not predictions. Because you know that stock prices are affected by widespread and unpredictable events, you need to make sure you don't increase leverage, and you also know that a 50% drop may occur.
If you trust the predictions you make about your portfolio (or predictions made by others), then you're risking your own money.
Therefore, when we are planning the 2022 column content, we switched to a risk assessment...

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This is a trap that many investors can't stop and can easily fall into.
When the market falls sharply, they will have the desire to buy stocks, hoping to break the bottom.
After all, as the old saying goes, we want to “buy low and sell high.” However, buying while stock prices are still falling is sometimes a dangerous game and usually results in losses.
Today, let's talk about a market that is in its downturn, but investors are flocking in, which sends a red flag that there may be further losses in 2022.
Zhonggai has caused quite a few people to lose money this year (we said it a year ago; stay away from China Securities; I don't know how many friends have done it). It has been particularly affected by the return to Hong Kong boom, but at this point, many friends will be curious. Is it really time to get to the bottom of it? After all, buying at the bottom is very attractive, and the potential profit is greatest. If you can make a big order, it will be enough to show off for a while.
As a result, many investors are ready to go undercover.
ETF-iShares (FXI) holds a basket of shares of leading Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. This is one of the easiest ways for US investors to invest in Chinese stocks.
Importantly, FXI has continued to decline since peaking in February of last year, and since then FXI has declined by about 32%.
However, investors have not given up on this market. We can see this from FXI's total circulation share. The principle is simple:
FXI's unique fund structure allows it to increase or liquidate shares according to investors' needs. If investors are bullish on China's blue chips...

Editor's note: As part of the New Year series, we will once again analyze the real estate market.
1. The real estate market is just beginning
l Choose between gold and real estate investment; Steve will no doubt choose the latter
Admittedly, the US real estate market is the focus of 2021, and record low interest rates and high demand have led to crazy housing bidding wars and skyrocketing housing prices.
These are all speculative frenzy, reminiscent of the real estate bubble before the financial crisis. But according to Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, the real estate bull market is not a bubble, but the beginning of a long-term trend that is far from over.
As Steve stated in a research report published on September 9, he believes that real estate is an excellent investment today and even the next 10 years. If he had no choice, he would choose to give up all of his gold investments. Old readers probably know that Steve is very optimistic about investing in the US real estate market.
Steve called this real estate bull market his most important prediction for the 1920s. In the following, Steve shares the three best ways to seize this huge trend.
If I had to opt out, I (Steve, same point below) would choose to never invest in gold and instead invest in the real estate market.
Around 2000, gold was about to end its 10-year bear market.
It would be too conservative to say that no one paid attention to gold at the time.
I remember the first time I went to the coin fair. The exhibition hall was half full, and everyone who came to the exhibition was over 60 years old....

1. I personally think that there may be a market crash in 2022.The "market" here refers to the stock market and the corporate bond market, which is much larger than the stock market.I'm not the only one who thinks so. Michael Burry is one of the few people who can foresee the financial crisis in 2008. In 2007, he bought credit default swaps on mortgage bonds through his hedge fund, betting heavily on a fall in the market.The deal earned $750 million for Burry investors and $100m for himself. Michael Lewis wrote a book about him, which was later adapted into the movie Big short.We should all pay attention to Burry.He doesn't often share his thoughts, and when he does, he usually speaks on Twitter these days.Now that Burry predicts that the "mother of the crash" is emerging, he says the market is like dancing on the cutting edge. He recently posted a message about the market on Twitter:More speculative than in the 1920s, higher than the overvaluation of the 1990s, and worse than the geopolitical and economic conflicts of the 1970s.In addition to posting on Twitter, Burry is selling most of his shares.At his hedge fund Thain Asset Management (Scion Asset Management), he cut his portfolio from more than 20 stocks to six at the end of the third quarter.Not all my colleagues like it.