It's official:
For the first time this year, markets now only see 3 interest rate cuts in 2024.
This also happens to be the first time that markets align with the latest Fed guidance.
Odds of a rate cut in this week are down to 2% and odds of a rate cut in May are down to ~7%.
Just 3 months ago, markets saw SEVEN rate cuts in 2024 with rate cuts beginning this month.
As inflation data begins to rise again, 3 rate cuts is beginning to feel optimistic.
What does the Fed say this week?
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Several companies were in the spotlight due to various developments:
Oracle ( $Oracle(ORCL.US)$ ) experienced a surge in after-hours trading, buoyed by cloud deals and AI demand.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals ( $ACADIA Pharmaceuticals(ACAD.US)$ ) saw its stock decline by 15% following the announcement of disappointing results from a Phase 3 trial.
Vail Resorts ( $Vail Resorts(MTN.US)$ ) reported a decrease in stock value after releasing results that were impacted by lower visits and snowfall.
$Asana(ASAN.US)$ Asana rep...

From Bloomberg:
“US consumer expectations for #inflation over the next three years climbed in February — and increased even more sharply for the five-year horizon — a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey showed.
Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.7% last month, rebounding from a record low in January. Five-year expectations, meanwhile, climbed to a six-month high of 2.9%. Projected year-ahead inflation was unchanged from January at 3%.”
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These are some of the stocks making the biggest moves before the bell:
Crypto stocks — Stocks connected to cryptocurrencies rose as Bitcoin hit a fresh record high and topped $71,000. Coinbase and Microstrategy rose about 6% and 8%, respectively. Marathon Digital also rose 6%.
$PDD Holdings(PDD.US)$
— U.S.-listed shares of the Chinese ecommerce company added 4.5% following an upgrade by Jefferies to buy.
$Duolingo(DUOL.US)$
— Duolingo shares...

Very difficult to say the bull market is...
1⃣ a bubble
2⃣peaking for the bull market cycle
Usually a bubble finds margin debt at record levels
Usually a bull market tops with margin debt at record levels. I don't see record level margin debt; do you?
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$Sea(SE.US)$ Sea Limited Q4 FY23:
• Revenue +5% Y/Y to $3.6B ($70M beat).
• EPS -$0.19 ($0.07 beat).
Shopee marketplace +23% Y/Y to $2.3B
Garena Bookings +2% Q/Q to $0.5B.
SeaMoney revenue +24% Y/Y to $0.5B.

Apple $Apple(AAPL.US)$ has dropped to 4th place in terms of China smartphone market share.
Apple's share fell below 16%, down from 19% a year ago, while Huawei surged to a 16.5% market share in the first 6wks, up from 9.4%, driven by patriotic buying.
Vivo leads with a 19.2% market share, while Honor, which separated from Huawei in 2020, holds the 3rd position.

🇺🇸U.S. ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK:
*ISM SERVICES PMI (TUES.)
*ADP NONFARM PAYROLLS (WED.)
*JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (WED.)
*JOBLESS CLAIMS (THURS.)
*NONFARM PAYROLLS (FRI.)
*UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (FRI.)
*AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (FRI.)
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