$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ So it’s really going to touch the call wall firmly and then drop all the way down to the put wall?! Gamma exposure is not to be underestimated!!
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$Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US)$ Given tomorrow's CPI release following that jobs report, it's inevitable that today sees profit-taking sales on yesterday's positions.
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"Korea's circuit breaker is a technical correction—the fundamentals remain solid, presenting a great dip-buying opportunity"
— Timothy Moe | Chief Asia Pacific Equity Strategist, Goldman Sachs
June 8, 2026 — KOSPI triggered a market-wide circuit breaker after opening down 8.4%; KOSDAQ also halted. Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Asia Pacific Equity Strategist, appeared on Bloomberg Live: "The AI story has only just begun—and it’s already generating profits. Korea is a prime example." Korean corporate earnings are projected to surge +320% this year, and Samsung and SK Hynix trade at around 5x P/E, which he calls a "clear dip-buying opportunity." Historically, after circuit breakers were triggered in Korea, markets rebounded 15–30% within 3–6 months.
📊 Data on Korea’s 'Black Monday':
KOSPI opening: -8.4% → Full-market circuit breaker triggered at 09:03 Seoul time
KOSDAQ: Down over 7%; KOSDAQ150 futures down 6% → Algorithmic trading halted
Samsung Electronics: ...
— Timothy Moe | Chief Asia Pacific Equity Strategist, Goldman Sachs
June 8, 2026 — KOSPI triggered a market-wide circuit breaker after opening down 8.4%; KOSDAQ also halted. Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Asia Pacific Equity Strategist, appeared on Bloomberg Live: "The AI story has only just begun—and it’s already generating profits. Korea is a prime example." Korean corporate earnings are projected to surge +320% this year, and Samsung and SK Hynix trade at around 5x P/E, which he calls a "clear dip-buying opportunity." Historically, after circuit breakers were triggered in Korea, markets rebounded 15–30% within 3–6 months.
📊 Data on Korea’s 'Black Monday':
KOSPI opening: -8.4% → Full-market circuit breaker triggered at 09:03 Seoul time
KOSDAQ: Down over 7%; KOSDAQ150 futures down 6% → Algorithmic trading halted
Samsung Electronics: ...
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$Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US)$ I had anticipated a self-driven rebound from below the psychological level of 200. However, given this week’s packed calendar—CPI on June 10, Oracle earnings after the close, PPI on June 11, and the SpaceX IPO plus MSQ on June 12—it's too risky to chase the market aggressively. Caution prevailed; I figured the rally would likely end yesterday or today... That said, if I'm aiming for certainty, the single rate cut already priced in—alongside the lock-up expirations—would most plausibly occur at the November or December FOMC meeting following the midterm elections. If average hourly earnings continue hovering around 0.2%–0.3%, wages won't keep up with inflation even as employment rises. In that case, the Fed can't recklessly hike rates either. ...If I want to secure gains with confidence, I’d rather wait until around March next year.
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ When the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5%, equities tend to enter a correction phase. Loss-making companies with high PSR (Price-to-Sales Ratio) TTM are especially vulnerable.
Roughly speaking, this is how interest rates and equities relate.
[Real Interest Rate] ※ Published with a one-month lag
Below 1.5% → Significant room for equity gains
1.5%–2.5% → Neutral
Above 2.5% → Risky
[10-Year Treasury Yield] ※ Use this metric when assessing current conditions
4.0%–4.3% → Initial caution warranted, but still manageable
Above 4.5% → Prone to corrections; growth stocks and loss-making companies with high PSR require close attention
4.7%–5.0% → Interest rate shock. Entire equity market enters danger zone
Roughly speaking, this is how interest rates and equities relate.
[Real Interest Rate] ※ Published with a one-month lag
Below 1.5% → Significant room for equity gains
1.5%–2.5% → Neutral
Above 2.5% → Risky
[10-Year Treasury Yield] ※ Use this metric when assessing current conditions
4.0%–4.3% → Initial caution warranted, but still manageable
Above 4.5% → Prone to corrections; growth stocks and loss-making companies with high PSR require close attention
4.7%–5.0% → Interest rate shock. Entire equity market enters danger zone
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$Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US)$
It seems the stock price has entered a temporary stabilization phase around here, so those who want to buy might as well go for it decisively!
However, volatility remains high, the stock still feels overvalued, and I believe there’s downside risk. Even in the best-case scenario, the lock-up expiration is coming up soon.
Either commit to a long-term investment, plan to sell quickly if it surges sharply, or adopt a wait-and-see approach and buy gradually.
Breaking below 200 and then rebounding sharply isn’t a bad price movement.
Well, it’ll definitely be a gamble.
If I were to buy, I’d prefer a price below 250.
It seems the stock price has entered a temporary stabilization phase around here, so those who want to buy might as well go for it decisively!
However, volatility remains high, the stock still feels overvalued, and I believe there’s downside risk. Even in the best-case scenario, the lock-up expiration is coming up soon.
Either commit to a long-term investment, plan to sell quickly if it surges sharply, or adopt a wait-and-see approach and buy gradually.
Breaking below 200 and then rebounding sharply isn’t a bad price movement.
Well, it’ll definitely be a gamble.
If I were to buy, I’d prefer a price below 250.
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$Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US)$
Buying today
Buying today
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I asked AI for Oracle's earnings forecast. Hoping it won't turn out like Broadcom 🙏🌠
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$Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US)$ If you're thinking of buying, wait until 1–2 quarters after the lock-up expiration covering 171 million shares... Until then, upside will likely be limited. The real buying opportunity may start around the first half of next year. With total shares outstanding at 220 million and a free float of only 30 million, institutional investors will probably start accumulating once the stock price has fully dropped after those 171 million shares are sold. Right now is definitely not the time to jump in. Since it's an unprofitable company, focus on the PSR (Price-to-Sales Ratio). If you're aiming for a 10-bagger, wait until the PSR falls to the industry average. Of course, if you're targeting this stock, you'd prefer its market cap to bottom out first.
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$Redwire (RDW.US)$ Wait until it falls below $5.
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