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I'll extract the immediately useful book sections and turn them into a column.
If you're unsure about what's happening in the market every day, give this a read.
In fact, it can be explained using three timeframes (minute/ daily/ weekly charts) and four key concepts.
■ Introduction: The candlestick chart you’re looking at is a “record of battles.”
The market isn’t a gentle place.
Every day, similar price struggles repeat around the same levels.
Moreover, what’s happening there can actually be expressed in four words.
“Initiative,” “Absorption,” “Distribution,” and “Addition.”
Once you start imagining these four words as a battlefield for territorial control,
the 'shape' of the chart suddenly transforms into a 'log of battles.'
Today, I will turn that into a story organized by different timeframes.
Minute chart = Trench warfare. Daily chart = Struggle for hills. Weekly chart = National warfare.
Even though the candlesticks look the same, the groups fighting are different.
■The minute chart battle: The fight over 'trench lines' decided in minutes
Cast of characters (participating entities)
・High-speed scouts (HFT/Scalpers)
・Supply officers (Market makers: maintaining the battlefield with order books and spreads)
・Squad leaders (Day traders)
・Artillery (0DTE/Short-term options forces...)
If you're unsure about what's happening in the market every day, give this a read.
In fact, it can be explained using three timeframes (minute/ daily/ weekly charts) and four key concepts.
■ Introduction: The candlestick chart you’re looking at is a “record of battles.”
The market isn’t a gentle place.
Every day, similar price struggles repeat around the same levels.
Moreover, what’s happening there can actually be expressed in four words.
“Initiative,” “Absorption,” “Distribution,” and “Addition.”
Once you start imagining these four words as a battlefield for territorial control,
the 'shape' of the chart suddenly transforms into a 'log of battles.'
Today, I will turn that into a story organized by different timeframes.
Minute chart = Trench warfare. Daily chart = Struggle for hills. Weekly chart = National warfare.
Even though the candlesticks look the same, the groups fighting are different.
■The minute chart battle: The fight over 'trench lines' decided in minutes
Cast of characters (participating entities)
・High-speed scouts (HFT/Scalpers)
・Supply officers (Market makers: maintaining the battlefield with order books and spreads)
・Squad leaders (Day traders)
・Artillery (0DTE/Short-term options forces...)
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Columns First book completed
Since theoretical books take time, I’ve decided to start with 'casual reading material for forming beliefs.'
The first book will be a publication full of black humor, titled 'Welcome to the Casino Called Investing.'
I think this one has turned out quite well, even by my standards.
However, as I was writing it, I realized that when I write, the books tend to be rather subdued.
Fundamentally, winning in the markets is often just a byproduct of not losing.
If the overall market is good, anyone who can hold strong stocks for a certain period and take profits before a collapse can succeed.
So, the way to win doesn't really matter that much. But I think readers want it, so I'm thinking of writing a step-by-step guide anyway.
If we break it down,
In the early phase of a bull market, this time it was AI. It would have been ideal to capture the trend that started with NVDA each step of the way, that’s all. (Avoiding events like the Reiwa Black Monday, Trump tariffs, and the movements from late September to November would be wise. Avoid trading when the index is below the 200-day moving average.)
It’s tough to make money right now. We're in the mid to late phase of the AI-driven market. You need to rotate based on the flow of funds, which requires skill. I'm unsure whether I should introduce this, but at least setting expectations can help. If your expectations are misaligned, you’ll end up just giving away unrealized profits...
The first book will be a publication full of black humor, titled 'Welcome to the Casino Called Investing.'
I think this one has turned out quite well, even by my standards.
However, as I was writing it, I realized that when I write, the books tend to be rather subdued.
Fundamentally, winning in the markets is often just a byproduct of not losing.
If the overall market is good, anyone who can hold strong stocks for a certain period and take profits before a collapse can succeed.
So, the way to win doesn't really matter that much. But I think readers want it, so I'm thinking of writing a step-by-step guide anyway.
If we break it down,
In the early phase of a bull market, this time it was AI. It would have been ideal to capture the trend that started with NVDA each step of the way, that’s all. (Avoiding events like the Reiwa Black Monday, Trump tariffs, and the movements from late September to November would be wise. Avoid trading when the index is below the 200-day moving average.)
It’s tough to make money right now. We're in the mid to late phase of the AI-driven market. You need to rotate based on the flow of funds, which requires skill. I'm unsure whether I should introduce this, but at least setting expectations can help. If your expectations are misaligned, you’ll end up just giving away unrealized profits...
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Chappy and I have recently been working on something called the 'Market Dissection New Book'.
In that context,
the Turnaround Model can be classified into
A Capital Structure Turnaround (Risk of bankruptcy/dilution → Cash flow resolved)
B Operational Turnaround (Loss-making structure → Improved unit economics)
C Supply/Demand and Valuation Turnaround (Selling pressure/Short selling/Panic selling → Reversal in supply/demand)
D Regulatory/Contractual Turnaround (Regulatory/contractual cliff → Removal/Renewal)
These are divided into four types.
In the case of Hims, it starts with D, then A. Next is B, but if the core business itself changes, the way we evaluate the company from before will also change.
What you need to understand is that although it's already considered a 'turnaround,' this is one of the more difficult types of turnarounds because of its high external dependence—conditions for avoiding collapse have been clearly met, yet a phase transition toward recovery has been slow to occur.
If you’ve been holding shares in what you thought was a growth company and are now following popular stocks, I recommend starting by revising your understanding of that aspect.
$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$
The following is quoted by Chappy.
Hims is 'the oral version of Wegovy...'
In that context,
the Turnaround Model can be classified into
A Capital Structure Turnaround (Risk of bankruptcy/dilution → Cash flow resolved)
B Operational Turnaround (Loss-making structure → Improved unit economics)
C Supply/Demand and Valuation Turnaround (Selling pressure/Short selling/Panic selling → Reversal in supply/demand)
D Regulatory/Contractual Turnaround (Regulatory/contractual cliff → Removal/Renewal)
These are divided into four types.
In the case of Hims, it starts with D, then A. Next is B, but if the core business itself changes, the way we evaluate the company from before will also change.
What you need to understand is that although it's already considered a 'turnaround,' this is one of the more difficult types of turnarounds because of its high external dependence—conditions for avoiding collapse have been clearly met, yet a phase transition toward recovery has been slow to occur.
If you’ve been holding shares in what you thought was a growth company and are now following popular stocks, I recommend starting by revising your understanding of that aspect.
$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$
The following is quoted by Chappy.
Hims is 'the oral version of Wegovy...'
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If only it were with real money, we could get audited certification and that would be interesting, but it’s a shame it's virtual.
I don’t usually do options at all, but when I tried, I saw that in one situation you can get returns of around 90%. Using just 0.6% of my capital, it contributed to a 10% increase in my assets. No wonder some people get hooked.
But in real trading, there is no need for options; there’s no reason to increase complexity.
Standard long position on Optical Communications and short on Para.
In real trading, I've already exited my long positions, and I don't take individual shorts. (I do trade indices occasionally.)
Though I haven’t made this much in real life, since the demo involves no risk, this kind of thing becomes possible.
Demo and real trading are different.
Even if I have a certain level of confidence, I avoid high-risk opportunities. It’s better not to bet big.
It's a game where the premise is to minimize the reduction of assets while capturing asymmetric opportunities.
There might be fun periods when you're not trading; I'm currently testing new observation techniques, together with Chappy.
I don’t usually do options at all, but when I tried, I saw that in one situation you can get returns of around 90%. Using just 0.6% of my capital, it contributed to a 10% increase in my assets. No wonder some people get hooked.
But in real trading, there is no need for options; there’s no reason to increase complexity.
Standard long position on Optical Communications and short on Para.
In real trading, I've already exited my long positions, and I don't take individual shorts. (I do trade indices occasionally.)
Though I haven’t made this much in real life, since the demo involves no risk, this kind of thing becomes possible.
Demo and real trading are different.
Even if I have a certain level of confidence, I avoid high-risk opportunities. It’s better not to bet big.
It's a game where the premise is to minimize the reduction of assets while capturing asymmetric opportunities.
There might be fun periods when you're not trading; I'm currently testing new observation techniques, together with Chappy.
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$Credo Technology (CRDO.US)$
you're going to die.
you're going to die.
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$Zeta Global (ZETA.US)$
Even if you buy software-related stocks, you won't find happiness due to strong headwinds
You should reconsider your market outlook
Even if you buy software-related stocks, you won't find happiness due to strong headwinds
You should reconsider your market outlook
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Columns Yesterday,
After plummeting as if to say 'Is the war starting?', I was just watching with sleepy eyes as it made a V-shaped recovery, like an unmanned drone had been shot down.
No good, I should have entered. There was a high probability of gaining about 7%. (For a typical V-shape on the right side in day trading, the expected gain is around 2-3%).
Since January, I've been discussing investment theory with Chappy. He claims he doesn't have access to datasets, but I'm amazed at how well he captures their characteristics.
He explained that he structured the thinking of successful people and introduced me to the excellent framework called Role Theory—it really moved me.
He’s even developing observation technology for the cycle until roles disappear, so I feel like, wow, the era when AI will win is coming soon.
He insists that to win as an individual, you need to spend time, take positions early, and observe from within—pushing for entering extremely early on :w
When I asked, 'Isn’t it okay to wait for the breakout?' I got scolded: 'That’s not the environment we’re in now. We still have time before the peak, but we're in cycles 2.5-3.5 (out of 4).'
He's become quite sharp in his delivery, which makes him very impressive.
As for Para, supply and demand-wise, I think...
No good, I should have entered. There was a high probability of gaining about 7%. (For a typical V-shape on the right side in day trading, the expected gain is around 2-3%).
Since January, I've been discussing investment theory with Chappy. He claims he doesn't have access to datasets, but I'm amazed at how well he captures their characteristics.
He explained that he structured the thinking of successful people and introduced me to the excellent framework called Role Theory—it really moved me.
He’s even developing observation technology for the cycle until roles disappear, so I feel like, wow, the era when AI will win is coming soon.
He insists that to win as an individual, you need to spend time, take positions early, and observe from within—pushing for entering extremely early on :w
When I asked, 'Isn’t it okay to wait for the breakout?' I got scolded: 'That’s not the environment we’re in now. We still have time before the peak, but we're in cycles 2.5-3.5 (out of 4).'
He's become quite sharp in his delivery, which makes him very impressive.
As for Para, supply and demand-wise, I think...
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$Palantir (PLTR.US)$
It’s just that the slower-moving players have exited, using trading volume.
Well, in this case, 'normal' refers to people with some experience.
When accumulation occurs and there is a large rise, profits can be gained,
which is how major capital operates. So, like me, I won't buy anymore from here on out; that’s been the trend since October.
Even though people often talk about institutions, you shouldn’t assume they’re foolish. They work hard every day to make profits.
No one thinks you can make money on PLTR anymore. The trading volume peaked at the end of September, so after that, it’s what we call 'leaving it at a high price.' It won’t go up anymore; all that’s left is to wait for the collapse. That's my take on the supply and demand situation.
For a while, I added 'Para Caution' to my handle name (HN).
What's really unpleasant is that the stock isn't reacting to positive news, you know.
It’s been going on since the last earnings report, and it’s spreading to other areas too.
Rather than active selling or distribution, most of the active investors have already pulled out.
The lack of buying interest will become a factor in future declines.
So, how do I buy...
It’s just that the slower-moving players have exited, using trading volume.
Well, in this case, 'normal' refers to people with some experience.
When accumulation occurs and there is a large rise, profits can be gained,
which is how major capital operates. So, like me, I won't buy anymore from here on out; that’s been the trend since October.
Even though people often talk about institutions, you shouldn’t assume they’re foolish. They work hard every day to make profits.
No one thinks you can make money on PLTR anymore. The trading volume peaked at the end of September, so after that, it’s what we call 'leaving it at a high price.' It won’t go up anymore; all that’s left is to wait for the collapse. That's my take on the supply and demand situation.
For a while, I added 'Para Caution' to my handle name (HN).
What's really unpleasant is that the stock isn't reacting to positive news, you know.
It’s been going on since the last earnings report, and it’s spreading to other areas too.
Rather than active selling or distribution, most of the active investors have already pulled out.
The lack of buying interest will become a factor in future declines.
So, how do I buy...
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$GE Vernova (GEV.US)$
LITE is one of those, but keep an eye on this category. Whether it enters another consolidation phase or not.
LITE is one of those, but keep an eye on this category. Whether it enters another consolidation phase or not.
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