【📝 Comment on the latest issue of the Quarterly Report 📝】
Here is a summary of the key points of the 2024 summer issue.
By all means, I want many investors to take a look ()
⚫ ︎ Expected operating profit for 2024 (fiscal year ending 2024/4 to fiscal year ending 2025/3, target 3635 companies)
・All industries: 7.1% increase in profit forecast
・Manufacturing industry: 9.1% increase in profit forecast
・Non-manufacturing industry: 4.4% increase in profit forecast
　
⚫ ︎ Current fiscal year operating profit forecast by industry
・Chemical: Expected significant increase in profit of 36.7% from the previous fiscal year
・Automotive-related and semiconductor-related electronic materials are doing well
・Resonac, Asahi Kasei, and Nitto Denko are doing well
　
・Semiconductor-related: Machinery and electrical equipment also have a high profit growth rate
・Tokyo Electron, Disco, and Roze grow
　
・The service industry and retail industry have a high profit growth rate
・Improvements from the COVID-19 pandemic and the expansion of visitors to Japan have an impact
・Growth in DX support, EC, etc.
　
⚫ ︎ Industries that anticipate a decrease in profit
・Electricity/gas industry
・Reduced fuel and delays in price reflection
　
・Steel, petroleum and coal products, mining
・Expected decline in profit due to high market conditions
　
⚫ ︎ Points of interest
・Increase in companies increasing dividends
・More than 1100 companies have been affected by dividend increases
・Increase in the number of companies that set dividend payout ratios in medium-term plans, etc., and increase dividends even when profit is expected to decline
・Total return ratio, including share acquisitions, and DOE (...

1. summary
🔴 Maintaining the status quo
・The Bank of Japan plans to decide on a government bond purchase reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at the next meeting
・The Bank of Japan plans to hold a bond market participant meeting to listen to opinions on government bond purchases
　
2. Current situation analysis
・The Bank of Japan maintained the judgment shown in the April outlook report, stating that “there are weak movements in some parts, but it is recovering moderately.”
・Production: As a trend, it is within a flat range, but it is stated that “the decline due to the suspension of production and shipments by some automobile manufacturers continues.”
・Personal consumption: Although automobile sales continue to decline due to the effects of rising prices and the suspension of shipments by some manufacturers, it is said that “it has remained steady.”
　
3. Economic outlook
・Regarding the outlook for the economy, it is predicted that “growth will continue to exceed the potential growth rate because the positive cycle mechanism from income to expenditure gradually strengthens.”
・Consumer prices: Regarding the underlying rate of increase, medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to rise due to improvements in the macro supply-demand gap and the strengthening of the virtuous cycle between wages and prices.
・In the latter half of the forecast period of the “outlook report” with 2026 as the final year, prices...

The Federal Reserve has decided to leave the FF interest rate induction target unchanged at 5.25-5.50%.
Interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points have been suggested once by the end of the year, and there is a possibility that they will begin in December.
It has changed from the previous forecast, and the possibility of interest rate cuts before the presidential election has decreased.
🔥 Full explanation on YouTube ↓
Federal Reserve statement
Economic activity continues to be strong, employment is strong, and the unemployment rate is still low.
Regarding inflation, the expression “progress towards the 2% target can be seen” has also been improved.
　
Chairman Powell's Remarks
They stated that interest rate cuts are not appropriate until confidence is obtained that the inflation rate will move towards 2%, and that confidence has not yet been obtained from this year's data.
While the consumer price index (CPI) was a positive indicator, it showed an attitude of not making judgments based on single-month data alone.

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The circulation yield on Japan's new 10-year government bonds temporarily rose to 1.1% at the end of May!
This is the highest level since 2011/12.
This is because the possibility that the Bank of Japan will carry out policy revisions such as government bond purchases and reductions at the June monetary policy meeting spread to the market.
On 5/29, the Bank of Japan deliberation committee member Adachi suggested the idea of considering reducing government bond purchases, and market tension increased further.
Also, the Bank of Japan reduced the offer amount for government bond purchase operations on 5/13, which has also caused interest rates to rise.
In the market, it has been pointed out that there is a possibility that the Bank of Japan will raise additional interest rates, but there is also a view that the Japanese economy cannot withstand interest rate hikes.
Meanwhile, in the main opinions of the April monetary policy meeting, there were many strong hawkish statements about the outlook for interest rate hikes.
“Additional interest rate increases are possible at the monetary policy meeting in ◯ month”
What is a full-scale QTWill it be after the additional interest rate hike is ◯◯It is expected, and after additional interest rate hikes will be made in ◯ month this year at the earliest,Next year will be around ◯ strongIt is.
The truth is in this video ↓

Japan's 10-year government bonds reach 1.1%
On 2024/5/30, the circulation yield of Japan's new 10-year treasury bonds (374th bonds) temporarily rose to 1.100%. This increase in yield was at a high level for the first time in about 12 and a half years since 2011/12, and had a major impact on the market.
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Background of rising yields
This increase in yield is due to a combination of several factors. First, the effects of rising interest rates in Europe and the US can be mentioned. The fact that central banks in the United States and Europe continue to raise interest rates to control inflation has created upward pressure on global interest rates. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan stepped on policy revisions such as reducing government bond purchases at the June monetary policy meeting...

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business model
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1. Gaming: NVIDIA GPUs are widely used in the gaming market, and the GeForce series is particularly famous. Partnerships with game developers are also strong, contributing to an improved gaming experience.
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3. Data centers: NVIDIA GPUs are in high demand for data processing and AI workloads...

[CPI bulletin]
whole
•Month-on-month: +0.4% (forecast: +0.4%)
•YoY: +3.4% (forecast: +3.4%)
By item
• Energy: +3.2% (month-on-month), +3.2% (year-on-year)
• Food: +0.3% (month-on-month), +6.1% (year-on-year)
• Core Index (excluding energy and food): +0.3% (month-on-month), +3.6% (year-on-year)
exhaustive
• Energy prices continue to be mainly driven by rising gasoline prices.
• Food prices continue to rise, while prices for chicken, eggs, etc. continue to rise, some vegetable prices have declined.
• Core indices have leveled off as expected, and there are signs of slowing inflation.