At low levels, focus on logic; at high levels, focus on K-line
Let me start with a disclaimer—I was among the earliest bloggers covering memory/storage.
Can MU double again after already doubling? It all depends on its contract mix.
Here’s the bottom line: MU’s rise from $500 to $971 is just phase one. Phase two—valuation as a growth stock—has only just begun.
This memory supercycle is different from previous ones. Historically, memory was treated as a cyclical stock—you’d ride a rally and then wait for the downturn; a P/E ratio of 10x was considered the ceiling. But something changed in 2026: Micron started signing five-year Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs), locking in 68% of its revenue under long-term contracts. Prices, volumes, and terms are fixed for five years. This means two-thirds of its business is no longer exposed to spot price volatility.
I. How the $250B revenue figure is derived
We cross-validated FY27 revenue using two approaches. The first is a top-down estimate from TrendForce: the global memory market in 2027 will reach $1.28 trillion, with Micron holding 25% DRAM share and 11.5% NAND share, implying CY2027 Micron revenue of $269B, which translates to approximately $250B for FY27.
The second point is NVIDIA’s supply chain from the ground up—NVIDIA reported $75 billion in data center revenue for Q1 and guided to $91 billion for Q2, with Jensen describing demand as exhibiting 'parabolic growth.' For every additional Vera Rubin NVL72 rack deployed, ...