Hi,
moomoo ID:0
Log Out
English
Back
Log in to access Online Inquiry
avatar
TiptopptraderFemaleID: 102537278
Looking to travel to Queen city one day
Follow
Achievements
0
Following
0
Followers
2
Visitors

    Why did Moderna stock drop today?

    $Moderna(MRNA.US)$ shares are falling today as investors react to a delayed timeline for the company COVID-19 shot targeted at adolescents.
    On Sunday, Massachusetts-based biotech said that the FDA is unlikely to complete its review on the vaccine for use in those aged 12 – 17 years.
    Until that evaluation is complete, the company said it would not file an FDA submission seeking its clearance for use in the 6 – 11-year age group.
    Jeff Zients, President Biden’s Covid-19 response coordinator, and CDC Director, Rochelle Walensky, brushed off its impact on the anticipated rollout of $Pfizer(PFE.US)$ /$BioNTech(BNTX.US)$ COVID-19 shot for kids aged 5 – 11 years.
    “There’s plenty of supply of Pfizer vaccine, and we look forward to parents having the opportunity to vaccinate their kids,” Bloomberg quoted Zients as saying.
    However, the twin setbacks have hurt Moderna, with shares recording the biggest intraday decline since Oct. 22.
    Yet, as the following graph indicates, the stock has added over 200% since the start of the year.
    Why did Moderna stock drop today?
    Comment
    Share

    ColumnAMD stock's expected returns

    $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$ Since AMD's expected return is equivalent to ~15%, it is only a modest buy at the current price. However, buying AMD via Xilinx could improve future returns, making it a worthy option. We will discuss this merger arbitrage play in just a moment, but before we do so, let's discuss something critical to our valuation.
    The growth assumption of 15% CAGR from a base of $24B implies a 2031 revenue figure of $100B. If AMD fails to win a monopolistic market share (comparable to Intel's past dominance) over the next decade, these revenue growth targets may not be achieved. We must be cognizant of the fact that AMD is up against the likes of $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ , $Apple(AAPL.US)$ , $Intel(INTC.US)$ , ARM-based chip makers, and all other big-tech companies making their own chips in-house. Now, let's take a look at consensus analyst estimates for AMD's revenue growth rates:
    As you can see, AMD's growth rate is expected to decelerate significantly over the coming years. Now, I understand that Wall Street analysts are wrong most of the time, and I can envision a world where AMD does $100B in revenue every year. However, I don't think we have an ample margin of safety while investing in AMD due to aggressive growth projections priced into its stock.
    With the acquisition of Xilinx, AMD is expanding its total addressable market from ~80B to ~$110B. Currently, AMD's product portfolio is not as broad as Intel and Nvidia (AMD project's data center TAM for its products at just $45B, Intel and Nvidia have data center TAM's of ~$230B); however, this should be viewed as an opportunity for growth. With that being said, AMD's 3rd Gen EPYC processors (the fastest x86 server CPUs) are winning market share in the data center (still heavily dominated by Intel), and the company has a strong product roadmap for further enhancing its presence in high-performance computing, AI, and data center markets.
    With the impending 2022 launches of Zen4 powered EPYC CPU processors and CDNA2-powered GPUs, AMD is set to maintain its product leadership over Intel, and capture more market share in the data center in 2022 and beyond. As we know, Intel is struggling with its manufacturing process, and a move to outsource advanced node manufacturing (to $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$ for Ponte Vecchio and a few other upcoming Intel products) is not enough to stop AMD's higher-performing, less power consuming products from winning market share (at least in the medium term). Hence, AMD can deliver another spectacular year of sales growth in 2022 (far better than what analyst estimates suggest).
    After years of solid execution, AMD has regained customer trust in the data center markets as evidenced by its recent partnerships with some of the largest cloud providers in the world. Under the exemplary leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD can become a true heavyweight in the burgeoning semiconductor industry over the next decade and beyond.
    AMD stock's expected returns
    AMD stock's expected returns
    AMD stock's expected returns
    +4
    Comment
    Share

    ColumnWhy Alibaba is a buy before earnings

    $Alibaba(BABA.US)$ Shares of Alibaba have been in for a roller-coaster ride this year. Alibaba was caught in the middle of a major crackdown on multiple sectors of the Chinese economy in 2021. After the CCP decided to strengthen regulatory oversight and force Chinese enterprises to consider China's national security interests as part of their business strategies, valuations for major Chinese growth stocks cratered. The crackdown started off with financial service providers which made cryptocurrencies available to their customers and quickly spread to e-commerce companies, internet firms offering gaming products for children, for-profit businesses and even food delivery startups. The justification for Beijing in all of these instances has been to uphold rules of economic fairness by cracking down on companies that are said to engage in monopolistic behavior. Most large Chinese companies were targeted by China's anti-trust watchdog, the State Administration for Market Regulation, including Alibaba and $TENCENT(00700.HK)$.
    Most recently, enforcement regulations have taken a backseat to a new force emerging in the Chinese stock market: Multiple Chinese real estate and development firms are nearing bankruptcy as a downturn in property prices created a liquidity crisis that might get worse. Relying on massive amounts of easy debt, these firms have built development projects on speculation. Now that prices are dropping, the supply-demand mismatch is creating serious liquidity problems for firms like Modern Land, China Properties Group or $EVERG SERVICES(06666.HK)$ .
    Alibaba may be able to escape the selling pressure in the Chinese market if the company tables an impressive earnings card for the last quarter next week and I believe Alibaba will be able to do this! Although there is no official earnings date announcement, the earnings card is expected for November 4, 2021, according to Nasdaq information.
    Alibaba's e-commerce business is soaring, and the segment's growth even accelerated during the global Coronavirus pandemic. Alibaba's e-commerce business, responsible for 88% of revenues and 92% of EBITDA profits, is far and away the most important business driver for Alibaba. An additional breakdown of Alibaba's e-commerce revenues shows that international e-commerce retail and Alibaba's logistics business, branded under the name Cainiao, saw the highest year-over-year growth rates of 54% and 50%. The Cainiao network is expanding rapidly in China but also invests in a smart logistics network to deal with accelerating cross-border transactions.
    Alibaba is also looking forward to generating higher free cash flow in the future, which could drive a revaluation of Alibaba's shares. This is because the company's free cash flow in the last quarter was impacted by China's anti-monopoly fine which lowered the firm's free cash flow by 9.1B Chinese Yuan ($1.4B). The total fine was 18.2B Chinese Yuan ($2.8B) and was levied on Alibaba due to alleged anti-competitive practices. Although Alibaba recognized 50% of the anti-trust fine, the free cash flow was still 20.8B Chinese Yuan ($3.3B). Alibaba's free cash flow margin, after accounting for the anti-trust fine, was 10%. In the year-earlier period, Alibaba's free cash flow margin was 24%. I believe Alibaba could return to a 20% free cash flow margin next year.
    Looking ahead into the future, we can see that Alibaba's revenues are modeled to grow at a rate of 17% annually between FY 2021 and FY 2026. After receiving a big fine this year, Alibaba played nice with the CCP which could reduce the probability of receiving new fines in the future.
    Let's assume that Alibaba will not get any more anti-monopoly fines and grow revenues at a rate of 17% annually, which is implied in revenue forecasts until FY 2026.
    By 2026, Alibaba is expected to have revenues of $263.7B. If Alibaba's free cash flow margin stabilizes around 20% over the next five-year period, which I believe is plausible, then it could become a $52B a year free cash flow business… and the estimates have upside because Alibaba's other two businesses, digital media and cloud computing, will also start to make positive cash contributions to the firm. After all is said and done, I believe Alibaba could generate $52B in annual free cash flow by FY 2026, which is twice the free cash flow the firm generates currently. The firm's free cash flow is cheap compared to last year.
    Revenue estimates are rising and should continue to rise after results for the September quarter have been submitted. Alibaba's P-S ratio is just 2.4, less than half the ratio from last year!
    Why Alibaba is a buy before earnings
    Why Alibaba is a buy before earnings
    Why Alibaba is a buy before earnings
    Comment
    Share
    $Alibaba(BABA.US)$ BABA is likely going to present a strong earnings card for the last quarter, mostly because e-commerce is surging and Alibaba is the largest and most important e-commerce platform in China. Alibaba's risks are chiefly macro-style and the firm's free cash flow is set to improve significantly in the future. Due to Alibaba's attractive valuation based off of sales and free cash flow, BABA shares have a great future!
    Comment
    Share
    Tiptopptrader liked and commented on

    Ford Motor and Lucid Group among consumer gainers; Altria Group among losers

    Comment
    Share

    AMD tops forecasts as data-center sales lead earnings results

    $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$on Tuesday reported better-than-expected third-quarter results fueled by data center sales that doubled from the same period a year ago.
    After the close of trading AMD said that for the period ending Sept. 25, it eared 73 cents a share, excluding one-time items, on revenue of $4.3 billion, compared with earnings of 41 cents a share, on $2.8 billion in sales, in the third quarter of 2020. The results topped the forecasts of Wall Street analysts, who had forecast AMD to earn 66 cents a share on revenue of $4.11 billion.
    AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su said in a statement that in adding to data center sales doubling from a year ago, the company saw particular strength from shipments of the newest version of its Epyc computer processors and business in general "significantly accelerated" during the quarter.
    Computing and graphics segment revenue climbed 44% from a year ago, to $2.4 billion, on higher sales of AMD's Ryzen, Radeon and AMD Instinct processor sales. Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment revenue totaled $1.9 billion, up 69% from last year's third quarter.
    In late September, Su said she sees the component shortage impacting the semiconductor market to ease by next year.
    AMD tops forecasts as data-center sales lead earnings results
    Comment
    Share
    Tiptopptrader commented on

    Tesla reached a tipping point with Hertz deal, $1T market cap

    Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives said Monday that Elon Musk's$Tesla(TSLA.US)$reached a "tipping point" with a deal to sell 100K electric vehicles to rental car company$Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.(HTZZ.US)$.
    In an interview with CNBC, Ives added that the company reached a "watershed moment" by passing the $1T market cap mark, as the company remains in the early innings of a "green tidal wave."
    Early Monday, Tesla revealed a deal to provide 100K vehicles to HTZZ, which plans to offer the EVs to its rental customers. Bloomberg reported that the deal will represent about $4.2B in revenue.
    News of the deal sparked a nearly 13% rally in TSLA on Monday, adding to gains posted last week.
    Fueled in part by its recent earnings release, shares set a new all-time high last week, with Monday's advance extending that peak. TSLA reached an intraday 52-week high of $1,045.02 before closing at $1,024.86.
    Monday's gains also sent TSLA's market cap above $1T, putting it in a class with$Apple(AAPL.US)$,$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$,$Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$and$Amazon(AMZN.US)$.$Facebook(FB.US)$has been in the $1T club as well, although it has fallen below that level recently.
    Asked how TSLA can maintain its market leadership as the EV market becomes more crowded, Ives pointed to several advantages the company holds over latecomers to the industry.
    "I think Tesla has a battery technology moat, the supply moat ... and then you look at just the brand and the cache that Musk has built," he said.
    Ives asserted that his figures show TSLA demand outstripping supply by about 10%.
    "We've never viewed Tesla as an automotive company. We've viewed it as a disruptive technology company," Ives noted, highlighting his firm's $1,500 bull-case price target.
    Tesla reached a tipping point with Hertz deal, $1T market cap
    Comment
    Share
    Tiptopptrader commented on

    ColumnTesla May Have A Safety Problem

    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$One of the major bull thesis for electric vehicle maker Tesla currently is the massive opportunity that exists in autonomy. Despite failing to have a million robo-taxis on the road in 2020 as Elon Musk had previously promised, major investors like Ark Invest and its CEO Cathie Wood have high hopes for this part of the market. Unfortunately, the latest set of news shows a troubling pattern of events that puts Tesla's safety into question.
    Tesla releases a quarterly vehicle safety report, also known as the Autopilot report. Up until last quarter, the company had released this data pretty much within 2-3 weeks of a period's end. The Q2 data didn't come out until the last day of September, which was very strange, and the latest results can be seen below (in terms of millions of miles driven per accident). This was the second quarter in a row where the year-over-year Autopilot stats got worse.
    Remember, this is a system that's supposed to be constantly improving. Also, while Tesla fans may say that a Tesla on Autopilot is much safer than the average driver, we don't truly know that. Most Tesla Autopilot miles are done on highway miles where there are much less crashes, and Tesla is comparing its data across all vehicle types. Would you really see a valid comparison between crash data of a large Toyota Tundra versus a tiny Fiat, for instance?
    Recently, Tesla has pushed its full self-driving Beta version to a select group of drivers. To get on the system, you had to have a perfect 100 "safety score", which was calculated based on your recent driving history. While Elon Musk even admitted that the safety score wasn't perfect, Electrek posted an article on Thursday that Investment Advisor and ETF Manager Ross Gerber, a vocal Tesla fan, got access to the Beta program despite a safety score of just 37. There are a few items from that article that are very concerning, as quoted below.
    He [Ross Gerber] said that he believes Tesla sent him the update because “everyone in the media” follows him and he can spread information about the Full Self-Driving Beta update.
    However, I would note that the first thing he did after getting the update is drive and film with a handheld device while using FSD beta.
    That goes against Tesla’s recommended use of Autopilot and FSD features. It’s also a driving violation in California.
    This is extremely troubling, regardless of how good a driver Ross Gerber actually is. If Tesla is indeed pushing the FSD Beta program to vocal supporters instead of those with the highest safety scores, it is risking the safety of everyone on the road just to be promotional. If Ross had a high score like a 95, this might be a different discussion, but just a 37 seems to show something isn't right here. In fact, Ross Gerber has already promoted FSD to his more than 175,000 Twitter followers as seen below.
    Additionally, it appears that Tesla is coming under increased scrutiny from US regulators. According to CNBC, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration recently asked Tesla why it didn't initiate a recall recently when pushing a safety update regarding emergency vehicles. This came after at least twelve Tesla vehicles crashed into first responders' vehicles on the roads while using some of Tesla's advanced safety features, and this included one fatality. The NHTSA also frowned upon Tesla requiring initial users to sign non-disclosure agreements ("NDAs") when using FSD Beta, as Tesla was apparently afraid that users would post videos of poor experiences or system problems on social media. It appears that Tesla has since stopped the NDA practice, but it's certainly not a good look.
    Tesla May Have A Safety Problem
    Tesla May Have A Safety Problem
    Comment
    Share
    Tiptopptrader commented on

    ColumnTesla's success is exciting, but they are still an automotive manufacturer that

    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$I don't hate TSLA or growth companies; what I hate is paying too much for growth. TSLA is doing all the right things, their revenue, net income, and free cash flow are growing considerably, but at today's levels, investors are paying way too much for TSLA's future growth as a tremendous amount is priced in. A report came out the other day where Bernstein went on a fact-finding mission. Their firm determined that 99% of global car sales originated from traditional auto OEMs. Internal combustion engines accounted for 97%, while battery electric vehicles came in at 2%. The most interesting thing about the report was that the top 15 OEMs had a collective market cap of $1.2 trillion while the pure-play EV companies, with TSLA at the helm, had a collective market cap of $1.1 trillion, yet they sell 1% of all cars today.
    Currently, TSLA has a market cap of $890.5 billion while the combination of$Ford Motor(F.US)$,$General Motors(GM.US)$,$Toyota Motor(TM.US)$,$VOLKSWAGEN A G(VWAGY.US)$,$BAYER MOTOREN WERK(BMWYY.US)$,$Honda Motor(HMC.US)$and$MERCEDES-BENZ GROUP AG(DDAIF.US)$have a combined market cap of $746.62 billion. TSLA in the TTM has generated $46.85 billion in revenue, $3.47 billion in net income, and $2.57 billion in FCF, while the combined entity of F, GM, VWAGY, BMWYY, TM, HMC, and DDAIF generated $1.13 trillion in revenue, $102.27 billion in net income, and $79.51 billion in FCF. People who are investing in TSLA today are paying too much for their growth. It's perplexing, and the numbers don't make sense. By these numbers, TSLA would need to increase their revenue by $1.08 trillion (2,316%), net income by $98.8 billion (2,849%), and their FCF by $76.95 billion (2,997%) to equal what these companies are producing currently, yet TSLA's market cap is $143.88 billion larger than these companies combined. There is no justification for TSLA's market cap, and all of the innovative ways they are potentially going to generate revenue from aren't filling this void anytime soon. The premium on TSLA's growth is dangerous, and there isn't a single logical justification that has been made to support their market cap.
    TSLA has a current P/S of 18.48 ($892.28 / $48.28 (revenue per share)) and a current EPS of 249.94 ($892.28 / $3.57). TSLA is in the middle of the pack as its net income conversion ratio is 7.4%. I know what the bulls are going to say, TSLA is growing more than everyone else, and I don't understand growth. I have a question, are they? I used many companies here, but let's look at just VWAGY for a one-to-one comparison. TSLA has increased its total revenue by $39.85 billion over the past five years and it's grown from $7 billion to $46.85 billion in the TTM. I admit that's incredible, but so is what VWAGY did. In the same period, VWAGY has increased its revenue by $55.78 billion as it went from $195.79 billion to $251.56 billion. Sure, TSLA has a much higher percentage from a percentage base, but VWAGY, as an established company, grew by more than $8.2 billion over the same period. The same goes for net income, as VWAGY saw its net income increase by $15.94 billion over the past five years while TSLA's increased by $4.14 billion. VWAGY has a 13% ROE ratio, while TSLA's is 12.17%. VWAGY saw its FCF increase by $33.71 billion in the last five years while TSLA's grew by $3.88 billion, yet VWAGY trades at a 4.6x price to FCF multiple while TSLA's multiple is 346.9x. Mr. Market has also placed a 0.83x value on VWAGY's equity regarding its market cap, while TSLA trades at 31.25x. The kicker is that TSLA has diluted shares as they have increased the amount of TSLA shares outstanding by 23.45%, and VWAGY has done all of this while keeping outstanding shares the same. TSLA's market cap is $753.49 billion larger than VWAGY, and if you think VWAGY is standing still in the EV market, they aren't.TSLA's valuation doesn't work, and it's not justifiable as an automotive company.
    Tesla's success is exciting, but they are still an automotive manufacturer that
    Comment
    Share
    $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ Daily stoch rolling over back under the 50 day ma beautiful engulfing candle with nice vol. Lower highs lower lows.
    Weekly rolled over says stay short
    U noticed when we rallied off the low and I said wont last we will give it all back near the 50 day
    U can tell that was going to happen by look at vol as we went into 50 day weak more selling
    next thing was that weekly stoch as the daily headed up weekly stayed down not enough energy turn it up.
    Some folks said bottom in go long john new highs and look giving it all back. That weekly stoch told me not get out totally spy shrt.
    Comment
    Share