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Luffy D Wealth Private ID: 102286629
Long Term Investor | #Metaverse Stocks Not investment advice #OnePiece Fan
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    The S&P500 have been touching correction territory for the past 2 days and it is beginning to spook investors. There is sudden interest in $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US)$ but I'm not the biggest fan to short the market.
    $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ has not been spared by the recent carnage along with $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ $Meta Platforms(FB.US)$ and several other technology stocks.
    Today, I wish to share my observation on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ over th...
    The Nvidia Story So Far. Will it drop an ARM?
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    I don't think we feel it much in Singapore. I remember travelling overseas (say Germany, Thailand, Australia) and people where saying things were so cheap.
    Though we don't travel now, the conversation goes around "do you know that this is cheaper in xxx, don't you miss travelling? "
    So I think yes, people are generally getting wealthier in Singapore. we just don't feel it just like how fish don't feel water.
    one of the best things I do is to start thinking about investing in decades not years. The long time period will help me deal with short term losses and instead focus on the long run.
    This column is inspired from reading a memo by OakTree's Capital Co-Founder Howard Marks on "Selling Out". I have listed down key learning points from his sharing. I hope that this sharing will benefit everyone in their journey in investing.
    Starting Point: Buy Low Sell High
    This is the most basic/common sense of the discussion. In our human instincts, we want to make money and the most easy way to do it is to buy it at $1 to sell it at $100. However, is it that easy to do?
    ...
    When should you sell?
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    Terry Smith is one the best investors I know. He manages the Fundsmith equity fund that has a speculator return over the last decade. I enjoy reading his annual letters to get an idea on his investing mindset. Here are 9 lessons that I have taken away from him.
    Wishing everyone a great 2022 ahead!
    1. No investment strategy will outperform in every reporting period and every type of market condition. So, as much as we may not like it, we can expect some period...
    9 Investing Lessons From Terry Smith
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    $Unity Software(U.US)$ has been getting good attention because of the #Metaverse effect when $Meta Platforms(FB.US)$ first shared that they are moving into the metaverse.
    Unity is mainly used as a game engine now. Some of the more popular games includes Pokemon Go, Monument Valley, Call of Duty, Beat Sabre and Cupcake. It is currently have around 50% of market share for game engine.It is currently in a good position to as a platform to create the Metaverse.
    Share prices has been correcting and is now close to EMA200. Do you think it is a good time to invest into Unity?
    $U Coming Back To EMA200. Is it time to enter?
    Tesla Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has sold another 934,091 shares of the electric vehicle maker worth US$963.2 million, U.S. securities filings showed on Thursday.
    He also exercised stock options to buy 2.17 million shares of Tesla, according to the filings.
    What do you think of the behaviour of Musk? is $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ a buy now?
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    $Apple(AAPL.US)$ is quietly become one of the biggest companies in the world. If their share price goes up further, their market cap will be worth $3Trillion Dollars!. It is bigger than the ENTIRE GERMAN EQUITY!
    Isn't that crazy?
    One place to stay off with is did fundamental changed over the last 2 years for it to be valued at where it is today? Personally, I think it is a no.
    Another reason why valuation is steep now is because the #Metaverse effect is being priced in. However, I believe that $Apple(AAPL.US)$ might not be in a good position in the #Metaverse for the folowing reasons.
    1. Questionable Game Changer?
    AAPL used to be the game changer for phone. Steve jobs wanted to make lives better by putting a revolutionary product in the hands of consumers. However, iPhones (which accounts for ~50% of revenue) hasn't had much improvements over the years. I believe Tim Cook is more of an optimizer than a visionalist.
    2. CAPEX Spending
    The amount of money spend on developing for the future don't lie. You can't innovate without investing.
    $Apple(AAPL.US)$ TTM Revenue is USD365,817M(TTM). The amount spend on CAPEX is USD11,085M. $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ TTM Revenue is USD457,965M TTM). The amount spend on CAPEX is USD56,941M. $Meta Platforms(FB.US)$ TTM Revenue is USD112,330M(TTM). The amount spend on CAPEX is USD17,811M.
    Apple CAPEX pales in comparison to Amazon. Even though Facebook revenue is just 30% of Apple, they are spending 60% more than Apple. I doubt Apple will the capability to build #ElectricVehicles at this stage.
    3. R&D Spending
    R&D % of Revenue
    $Apple(AAPL.US)$ : 5.99%
    $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ : 11.1%
    $Meta Platforms(FB.US)$ : 20.31%
    I believe AAPL focuses on branding and their ecosystem rather than innovating technology. AAPL may be the hardware of the#Metaverseworld through AR on iPhone cameras. (Hints on $Kopin(KOPN.US)$ ). However, based on R&D spending, they are currently not very competitive.
    What do you think?
    Is $AAPL Overvalued?
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    The 2021 Madness. What's Next
    The past 2 years have been madness. I believe you saw how COVID-19 took the world by storm. Your company might have been left paralyzed, our governments scrambled and ordinary people that you know became separated from their loved ones.
    Just as we think that things are becoming more stable, Omicon emerged When will this ever end?
    First thing first, for readers following Wealthdojo, I would like to thank you for all the support you have given by sharing my articles. It is really a pleasure.
    As you know, it is a yearly tradition to write a reflection of the year so that we don’t miss the lessons we learnt . In this annual 2021’s reflection, I have a new epiphany.
    What if things never really ends and these will continue forever?
    History In Context
    100 Years Of History And The Stock Market
    In the last 100 years, things were crazy. If you travel through time to the 1900s and tell someone that you can find all the information in the world in a 6 inch metal piece (smartphone), they will think that you are crazy.
    Do you know what else is crazy? Imagine all of these happening just in the last 100 years.
    Every single time when we thought things are crazy, we bounced back as a human race to be where we are now. I believe things will be crazier from now on. (Maybe the Metaverse isn’t that crazy after all. More on the Metaverse in the points below.)
    The Crazy Things That Happened in 2021
    Let’s start with my pet peeve. Over 35% of all Amercian dollars ever printed by the US government was printed in 2020! These American dollars are given out for people like shopping vouchers. I cannot imagine how inflation will be like in the near future. This has raised food prices and impacted countries like Egypt, Libra, Syira and Yemen where people are rioting in the streets for having nothing to eat.
    We also saw terrible companies’ stock soar insanely high. Companies such as Gamestop $GameStop(GME.US)$ , $AMC Entertainment(AMC.US)$ saw great gains. The worse part of it all is that I see speculators trying to rationalize those buys.
    NFT are now sold for millions with the current record of $69 million. Did I mentioned cryptocurrency already? Anyway, here’s the NFT that was sold.
    Investing in 2021 is like going to NTUC before PM Lee gives his speech. There will be lot of people buying, stocking up on toilet paper and cup noodles. There will be fair share of people taking photos or videos of situations. It is funny, exciting and everyone will have a story to tell.
    Please enjoy my reflections as I reflect on the 2021.
    No One Gives a Damn About Long Term Investing Anymore
    If they are, they are probably very seasoned investors or part of a Long term investing community.
    It is not easy being a self directed long term investor. We live in a world of instant gratification. If you want food, just hit the Grab App and you will get it in 30 minutes. If you want a dress, just hit the Shopee App and you will get it in 2 to 3 days. If our internet connection is down for 15 mins, we behave like the world is over. In a world where things comes so easily, the virtue of patience becomes very hard.
    The stock market is one where we see unique individuals. Some people treat it as a place to buy high quality companies. Others might treat it like a platform to instantly change their lives by putting all their savings in one company/coin. I don’t think there is right or wrong to this. I just wonder if they do get their intended results.
    Social media changed the stock market completely. . Everyday, we are going to the moon. HODL. . It almost makes investing looks like it is easy money until it is not. Correction happens and people suddenly becomes a “long term investor” again. Well.. at least until the correction is over.
    AMC TO THE MOON: I wonder how this Youtuber is doing now. ( $AMC Entertainment(AMC.US)$ )
    I find it so difficult to talk about investing now when their expectation is getting multi-baggers in the next few weeks. If it is not 100%, don’t even bother.
    I wonder if people will be ever satisfied by buying and holding quality companies anymore. That being said, my own investment thesis is still investing and holding on to the quality companies in the long run.
    Burn Outs Are Real
    Do you remember holidays? Holidays are mostly overseas trips requiring you to pay buckets loads of money for you to take a photo over a scenic location. (Kinda look like this).
    Jokes aside, I noticed the lack of holidays causing burns outs among my friends. People are suffering from burn outs. It is so hard to walk away from our work now and worse still, we can’t even go for a holiday.
    I always thought that holidays were a temporary reset that we need in a driven society. There is always an email that you need to reply. There is always a whatsapp work group chat that you need to give attention to. You are constantly engaged. Although holidays are temporary relief much like Panadol, you might feel that at least it gives you the opportunity to disengage yourself from work and enjoy that moment.
    *Important* If you find yourself constantly feeling helpless or trapped, having an increasing cynical outlook of life or lacking motivation, back pains, shoulder aches, gaining those extra pounds around your belly, those might be signs that you are experiencing a burn out. You might need some help.
    I’m not suggesting that I’m an expert to help with burn outs. Pandemic or not, I believe it is very important to take breaks or just a time to do nothing. I can tell you that it is not easy to do nothing. We have NOTHING in our culture that focuses on doing NOTHING. I grow up learning that I should not waste time and I was punished for wasting time.
    Took me 5 years to learn that relaxing is not wasting time. This is so important that I’m going to bold and type this sentence again. RELAXING IS NOT A WASTE OF TIME.
    Burn outs are real. Take breaks.
    The Common Man Behaves Like Experts
    Put a smart phone in the hands of ordinary man and they behave like experts. In my university days, I learnt about Bunning-Kruger Effect in Behavior Economics. Dunning-Kruger effect is generally reported as an irrational tendency among certain incompetent individuals systematically to overestimate their true level of competence.
    An obvious example is ordinary man or woman becoming “experts” in vaccines overnight and being able to share certain theories. For companies like $Moderna(MRNA.US)$ Moderna aren't sure that their vaccine will work on the Omicron, how can the common man be so sure?
    I struggle with this a lot. It seems like everyone thinks there is a conspiracy theory everywhere and they are very convinced about their own theory. The trust in the government is tested regularly with every strain or every spike in COVID-19 cases. Though I feel annoyed when there are heighten restrictions on dining, I believe we are doing all we can to get through this.
    Thinking deeply, I believe the struggle of this generation will be to find the right information. We have an overload of information and it is our duty to sleeve through all the noises. I see this in investment as well. There is probably someone you know who talks about Bitcoin and may be earning money if you know what you are doing.
    For me, I placed high importance in finding places with right information.
    Be Open Minded AND Keep your Eyes Open
    I would like to finish off with this statement. I can’t help but feel that the world is constantly changing. Something that might have worked 5 years ago might be obsolete now.
    Floppy discs, CDs, DVDs, MP3 players, the pager, overhead projectors, fax machine are just some technologies that once took the world by storm and are obsolete today. The world is changing and so should our minds.
    I’m currently learning about everything related to the Metaverse. You can follow the page if you wish to be updated. I believe that this is an emerging trend and we are still early in the adoption of the technology.
    It is also important to keep our eyes open. With the new shiny object in the room, there will be new scams and new ways to be cheated. Open your eyes and move. There is no guarantee that we will not be hurt but it is important to keep moving.
    Final Thoughts
    This is probably my last article for the year. Wishing all of you good health and may fortune favor the brave.
    What about your reflections in 2021? Let me know in the comment below.
    The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.
    The 2021 Madness. What's Next?
    The 2021 Madness. What's Next?
    The 2021 Madness. What's Next?
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