Dan Thunderbolt
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Dan Thunderbolt
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US Stock Market Review 15 - 19 Apr 2024
DJI -0.08%, SP500 -3.05%, NASDAQ -5.52%. Market experienced selloff from mainly tech stocks, with NVDA fell more than 10% on last Friday, expect to see more volatility ahead on big tech earnings
Four of the Magnificent Seven group of tech giants will report this week: TSLA, META, MSFT GOOGL
Event to watch: 23 Apr S&P PMI & New Home Sales, 24 Apr Durable Goods Orders, 25 Apr GDP QoQ & initial jobless Claims, 26 Apr Core PCE Pri...
DJI -0.08%, SP500 -3.05%, NASDAQ -5.52%. Market experienced selloff from mainly tech stocks, with NVDA fell more than 10% on last Friday, expect to see more volatility ahead on big tech earnings
Four of the Magnificent Seven group of tech giants will report this week: TSLA, META, MSFT GOOGL
Event to watch: 23 Apr S&P PMI & New Home Sales, 24 Apr Durable Goods Orders, 25 Apr GDP QoQ & initial jobless Claims, 26 Apr Core PCE Pri...
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$Palantir(PLTR.US$ Long PLTR. Increased short interest could help propel the stock higher with a short squeeze if the next earnings report on November 11th is another blowout quarter. The main thing that concerns me about the stock is an elevated price/sales ratio. It could tread water and build a base for a year. Opportunity costs if the overall market continues higher. That said, I believe this is a good one for long term investors.
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Gainers: $Meten(METX.US$ +11%. $Ford Motor(F.US$ +8%. $Lucid Group(LCID.US$ +25%. $Digital Brands Group(DBGI.US$ +54%. $Ambev SA(ABEV.US$ +7%.
Losers: $Twilio(TWLO.US$ -15%. $Remark Holdings(MARK.US$ -5%. $eBay(EBAY.US$ -7%. $Altria(MO.US$ -6%. $AgriFORCE Growing(AGRI.US$ -7%.
Losers: $Twilio(TWLO.US$ -15%. $Remark Holdings(MARK.US$ -5%. $eBay(EBAY.US$ -7%. $Altria(MO.US$ -6%. $AgriFORCE Growing(AGRI.US$ -7%.
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$Facebook(FB.US$ has instructed employees to preserve internal communications from the past five years amid growing regulatory scrutiny from governments and legislators.
A company email sent last night setting up the legal hold tells employees to hold on to "internal documents and communications since 2016" that have to do with its businesses, according to the report.
“As you are probably aware, we’re currently the focus of extensive media coverage based on a swath of internal documents,” Facebook says in the mail seen by NYT. “As is often the case following this kind of reporting, a number of inquiries from governments and legislative bodies have been launched into the company’s operations.”
And that follows a damaging month-plus of negative stories largely kicked off by The Wall Street Journal's "Facebook Files" series of exposes starting Sept. 13.
Those were based on a large internal document dump provided to lawmakers and the media by whistleblower Frances Haugen.
It's not the first time Facebook has issued a legal directive to its employees. Last year following the antitrust lawsuit by the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys general, the company instructed workers to avoid discussing issues tied to the litigation, and to take online training to understand competition compliance.
Earlier, reports said that the FTC was reviewing Facebook's internal research suggesting harmful effects of its products on users, evaluating whether that violated a 2019 settlement with the agency.
A company email sent last night setting up the legal hold tells employees to hold on to "internal documents and communications since 2016" that have to do with its businesses, according to the report.
“As you are probably aware, we’re currently the focus of extensive media coverage based on a swath of internal documents,” Facebook says in the mail seen by NYT. “As is often the case following this kind of reporting, a number of inquiries from governments and legislative bodies have been launched into the company’s operations.”
And that follows a damaging month-plus of negative stories largely kicked off by The Wall Street Journal's "Facebook Files" series of exposes starting Sept. 13.
Those were based on a large internal document dump provided to lawmakers and the media by whistleblower Frances Haugen.
It's not the first time Facebook has issued a legal directive to its employees. Last year following the antitrust lawsuit by the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys general, the company instructed workers to avoid discussing issues tied to the litigation, and to take online training to understand competition compliance.
Earlier, reports said that the FTC was reviewing Facebook's internal research suggesting harmful effects of its products on users, evaluating whether that violated a 2019 settlement with the agency.
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Dan Thunderbolt
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$Tesla(TSLA.US$Tesla is by far not a bad company, but there could still be trouble ahead. This is due to two key factors - its valuation and its problems when it comes to delivering on growth promises.
Tesla has generated a net profit of $1.86 per share during the third quarter - the highest quarterly profit ever. If we annualize that, we get to EPS of $7.44 - shares trade at around 120x that amount today. That is an absolutely outrageous valuation for an automobile company, but even when we compare Tesla to other high-growth mega-caps such as $Amazon(AMZN.US$, $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$, $Facebook(FB.US$, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$or $Netflix(NFLX.US$, its valuation is by far the highest in that group. Amazon, the second-most expensive company in that group, trades at roughly half of Tesla's valuation, while others, such as Facebook, trade at less than one-quarter of Tesla's valuation - despite delivering huge growth of around 40% this year as well.
Looking at Tesla's valuation relative to the free cash flow the company generates, the picture worsens further. Tesla has generated around $4 billion in free cash over the last year, which means that shares are valued at a free cash flow multiple of more than 200 right now - which pencils out to a measly free cash flow yield of less than 0.5%. This holds true, surprisingly, despite the fact that Tesla has continued to issue massive amounts of shares. Over the last year alone, the diluted share count has risen by 18 million - which pencils out to a $16 billion increase in the company's market capitalization, all else equal.
Stock-based compensation has totaled around $2.2 billion over the last four quarters, and yet, free cash flow stood at just around $4 billion. Adjusted for SBC, free cash flows would have totaled around $2 billion over the last year, which pencils out to a free cash flow multiple north of 400 - which is way too expensive, I believe.
Tesla bulls oftentimes ascribe a lot of value to future business units, such as Tesla's upcoming entry in the electric pick-up market (Cybertruck), or its self-driving project. Both of these future growth projects are feeling some headwinds, however. Tesla has recently taken the pricing for the Cybertruck off its website, along with some specs:
The reasoning for that has not been publicized, but it seems possible that Tesla is realizing that the truck can't be profitably sold at a price of less than $40,000. Possibly, manufacturing headwinds or commodity price increases will force Tesla to sell the truck at higher prices, which would be a reasonable explanation for why the company has taken pricing information off its website. This, in turn, would worsen the Cybertruck's attractiveness versus competitors' offers, such as $Ford Motor(F.US$ F-150 Lightning. The fact that mass production for the Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2023 further pressures the outlook for this model.
Likewise, Tesla has not had too much success with its robo-car approach in recent weeks. Official probes into Tesla's Autopilot, along with a less-than-stellar performance of the latest FSD Beta version threaten the thesis that this will be a huge value driver in the foreseeable future. Some analysts and commenters also believe that the newly-appointed NHTSA Senior Advisor for Safety, Missy Cummings, who is a known Tesla critic, could put more pressure on Tesla and its self-driving claims.
To me, it looks like two of the most important potential growth drivers over the coming years, Tesla's Cybertruck and its self-driving project, are running into headwinds, which could pressure shares in the future, as they are currently priced for perfection.
Tesla has generated a net profit of $1.86 per share during the third quarter - the highest quarterly profit ever. If we annualize that, we get to EPS of $7.44 - shares trade at around 120x that amount today. That is an absolutely outrageous valuation for an automobile company, but even when we compare Tesla to other high-growth mega-caps such as $Amazon(AMZN.US$, $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$, $Facebook(FB.US$, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$or $Netflix(NFLX.US$, its valuation is by far the highest in that group. Amazon, the second-most expensive company in that group, trades at roughly half of Tesla's valuation, while others, such as Facebook, trade at less than one-quarter of Tesla's valuation - despite delivering huge growth of around 40% this year as well.
Looking at Tesla's valuation relative to the free cash flow the company generates, the picture worsens further. Tesla has generated around $4 billion in free cash over the last year, which means that shares are valued at a free cash flow multiple of more than 200 right now - which pencils out to a measly free cash flow yield of less than 0.5%. This holds true, surprisingly, despite the fact that Tesla has continued to issue massive amounts of shares. Over the last year alone, the diluted share count has risen by 18 million - which pencils out to a $16 billion increase in the company's market capitalization, all else equal.
Stock-based compensation has totaled around $2.2 billion over the last four quarters, and yet, free cash flow stood at just around $4 billion. Adjusted for SBC, free cash flows would have totaled around $2 billion over the last year, which pencils out to a free cash flow multiple north of 400 - which is way too expensive, I believe.
Tesla bulls oftentimes ascribe a lot of value to future business units, such as Tesla's upcoming entry in the electric pick-up market (Cybertruck), or its self-driving project. Both of these future growth projects are feeling some headwinds, however. Tesla has recently taken the pricing for the Cybertruck off its website, along with some specs:
The reasoning for that has not been publicized, but it seems possible that Tesla is realizing that the truck can't be profitably sold at a price of less than $40,000. Possibly, manufacturing headwinds or commodity price increases will force Tesla to sell the truck at higher prices, which would be a reasonable explanation for why the company has taken pricing information off its website. This, in turn, would worsen the Cybertruck's attractiveness versus competitors' offers, such as $Ford Motor(F.US$ F-150 Lightning. The fact that mass production for the Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2023 further pressures the outlook for this model.
Likewise, Tesla has not had too much success with its robo-car approach in recent weeks. Official probes into Tesla's Autopilot, along with a less-than-stellar performance of the latest FSD Beta version threaten the thesis that this will be a huge value driver in the foreseeable future. Some analysts and commenters also believe that the newly-appointed NHTSA Senior Advisor for Safety, Missy Cummings, who is a known Tesla critic, could put more pressure on Tesla and its self-driving claims.
To me, it looks like two of the most important potential growth drivers over the coming years, Tesla's Cybertruck and its self-driving project, are running into headwinds, which could pressure shares in the future, as they are currently priced for perfection.
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Trump Media & Technology Group is combining with a SPAC to take on Facebook $Facebook(FB.US$ and $Twitter (Delisted)(TWTR.US$. The company claims a tech monopoly uses censorship to threaten free speech, citing examples of $Amazon(AMZN.US$, $Apple(AAPL.US$, $Netflix(NFLX.US$ and $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$. TMTG has huge plans to take them all on.
$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC.US$ Today, both equity and warrants are trading with such volatility that they are hard to discuss, but as of this writing, equity costs $95 and warrants cost $41. There's no reason whatsoever to own the equity at $95. Sell it. Today. If you - and this is on you - have a long thesis for this company than replace all of your exposure with warrants. This deal will probably get done, so it's reasonable to expect that they are highly correlated. Sell your DWAC and (again: this part relies on stipulating your demonstrable long thesis) replace that exposure with warrants on a 1:1 ratio. You will be able to free up capital and replace the exposure for a much lower cost.
$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC.US$ Today, both equity and warrants are trading with such volatility that they are hard to discuss, but as of this writing, equity costs $95 and warrants cost $41. There's no reason whatsoever to own the equity at $95. Sell it. Today. If you - and this is on you - have a long thesis for this company than replace all of your exposure with warrants. This deal will probably get done, so it's reasonable to expect that they are highly correlated. Sell your DWAC and (again: this part relies on stipulating your demonstrable long thesis) replace that exposure with warrants on a 1:1 ratio. You will be able to free up capital and replace the exposure for a much lower cost.
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