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Trump: 'If they don't sign a deal, I'll bomb Iran to smithereens—this is the most egregiously violated ceasefire.'
The US-Iran conflict is intensifying,The strait is once again facing the risk of closure, but overall its impact on oil prices is far weaker than it was in March, with crude oil showing only a muted reaction. However, equity markets could decline due to this factor combined with other pressures.
June liquidity
Liquidity in both China A-shares and US equity markets tightened overall in June. The sell-off was also driven by IPO fundraising diverting capital and profit-taking after previous sharp gains. Factors affecting US market liquidity included SpaceX's listing and the start of the World Cup. On the positive side, CPI data came in better than feared, and there is speculation that new US capital rules at the end of June could unleash $2 trillion in liquidity, potentially halting the downtrend. However, consistent with earlier assessments, the market has already entered a short-term downward trend.
US nonfarm payrolls:
May’s nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading markets to fear a potential rate hike, which triggered a 'Black Friday' selloff in US equities. Meanwhile, CPI data held up reasonably well. Separately, Waller appears personally inclined to emulate Greenspan—supporting emerging industries through Fed money creation—and the likelihood of an actual rate hike this year remains low. Greenspan was more hands-off, allowing markets to self-correct while awaiting outcomes, often implementing policies akin to gambling. Waller may similarly be betting on whether AI can truly drive broad-based economic growth.
Meanwhile, nonfarm payroll data signaled a deterioration in U.S. employment quality: average hourly earnings in May rose 4.4% year-over-year, while CPI increased 4.2% year-over-year, resulting in real purchasing power...