MattSully
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“Trading is a battle between risk and reward. Is the expected return worth the risk?
If the answer is no, then it's no fun.”
-Marc Minervini
If the answer is no, then it's no fun.”
-Marc Minervini
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MattSully
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Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Core Position Analysis (08/04-12/04 2024)
“In the stock market, you can stand outside the market for free, watch and wait for the best time to bet. You can see the 'bottom card' of the market for free before placing a bet.” -Mark Minervini
A quick review of this week's markets:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Dispatched on Wednesday and Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Dispatched on Tuesday and Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Attracting funds on Friday.
DJI > SPX > NDX
The market went all the way down after cutting the “Sky Pool” on Monday. During this period, we can see that some people in the pool have become part of the seller's force due to emotional effects. Although the market is currently oversold in the short term and there is a possibility of a rapid rebound in the short term, we still cannot ignore the potential selling pressure of nearly 2 months. I never smartly search for so-called support levels. Every bottom is decided by buyers and sellers of all market participants. At that time, the market may once again give a clear signal like the “O'Neill Rule” on November 2 last year. Patience is necessary, and at the same time Be prepared for the potential next upward wave, and when it arrives, there are endless opportunities.
NDX and SPX weekly charts:
From week to week...
“In the stock market, you can stand outside the market for free, watch and wait for the best time to bet. You can see the 'bottom card' of the market for free before placing a bet.” -Mark Minervini
A quick review of this week's markets:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Dispatched on Wednesday and Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Dispatched on Tuesday and Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Attracting funds on Friday.
DJI > SPX > NDX
The market went all the way down after cutting the “Sky Pool” on Monday. During this period, we can see that some people in the pool have become part of the seller's force due to emotional effects. Although the market is currently oversold in the short term and there is a possibility of a rapid rebound in the short term, we still cannot ignore the potential selling pressure of nearly 2 months. I never smartly search for so-called support levels. Every bottom is decided by buyers and sellers of all market participants. At that time, the market may once again give a clear signal like the “O'Neill Rule” on November 2 last year. Patience is necessary, and at the same time Be prepared for the potential next upward wave, and when it arrives, there are endless opportunities.
NDX and SPX weekly charts:
From week to week...
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MattSully
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Jesse Livermore doesn't have modern technology, but still feels the need to take a vacation to avoid trading at the wrong time.
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MattSully
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Today's closing:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Out of 101 stocks, only 4 rose;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Only 40 of the 503 stocks rose.
Listen to the market without prejudice, at least it allows you to avoid extremely unfavorable options 🚴🏻
“Are you willing to spend weeks waiting for the best time to trade? Patience always pays off.” -S.Z
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Out of 101 stocks, only 4 rose;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Only 40 of the 503 stocks rose.
Listen to the market without prejudice, at least it allows you to avoid extremely unfavorable options 🚴🏻
“Are you willing to spend weeks waiting for the best time to trade? Patience always pays off.” -S.Z
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8
MattSully
liked
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Core Position Analysis (01/04-05/04 2024)
“If the index falls, but the stock setup surges and the breakthrough is effective, I'll buy the stock! But if the index hits new highs, and few stocks are set correctly according to my own standards, or few trades show progress, I'll hold a lot of cash... even if the popular average index soars!
How long will it take? It doesn't matter how long!!
Can you do that?
If that's not the case, then your chances of surpassing the market in trading leading stocks are slim.”
-Marc Minervini
A quick review of this week's markets:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Funding is drawn on Tuesday and Thursday, and distributed on Wednesday and Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Divided on Tuesday, distributed on Wednesday and Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Divided on Tuesday and distributed on Friday.
NDX > SPX > DJI
A week of huge fluctuations. The daily chart we talked about a few weeks ago has almost been cut, and things don't develop “the way it should” every day. The DJI index crashed first. NDX and SPX formed a huge sky pool above the gap, facing a huge risk of being cut. If cut, then everything in the pool remains...
“If the index falls, but the stock setup surges and the breakthrough is effective, I'll buy the stock! But if the index hits new highs, and few stocks are set correctly according to my own standards, or few trades show progress, I'll hold a lot of cash... even if the popular average index soars!
How long will it take? It doesn't matter how long!!
Can you do that?
If that's not the case, then your chances of surpassing the market in trading leading stocks are slim.”
-Marc Minervini
A quick review of this week's markets:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Funding is drawn on Tuesday and Thursday, and distributed on Wednesday and Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Divided on Tuesday, distributed on Wednesday and Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Divided on Tuesday and distributed on Friday.
NDX > SPX > DJI
A week of huge fluctuations. The daily chart we talked about a few weeks ago has almost been cut, and things don't develop “the way it should” every day. The DJI index crashed first. NDX and SPX formed a huge sky pool above the gap, facing a huge risk of being cut. If cut, then everything in the pool remains...
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15
MattSully
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To avoid all the potential noise and focus on your own chart, start turning off the comments feature now 🚴🏻
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MattSully
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Let's talk about the recent addition of NASDAQ 100 and the weekly chart 30MA to the new watch list 👇
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$
From the weekly chart's trading volume, you can clearly see:
Stocks, ETFs, and futures have been distributed simultaneously for three weeks in recent weeks, and it is undeniable that sellers have a clear advantage recently 👇
In addition, the 30MA test with an upward trend in the weekly chart added some selected names to the watch list. A new account (other brokerage firms) will be opened to focus on managed transactions around the 30MA weekly chart, and the MooMoo account will return to focusing on swing trading with a cycle of 2 weeks to 2 months.
From the weekly chart's trading volume, you can clearly see:
Stocks, ETFs, and futures have been distributed simultaneously for three weeks in recent weeks, and it is undeniable that sellers have a clear advantage recently 👇
In addition, the 30MA test with an upward trend in the weekly chart added some selected names to the watch list. A new account (other brokerage firms) will be opened to focus on managed transactions around the 30MA weekly chart, and the MooMoo account will return to focusing on swing trading with a cycle of 2 weeks to 2 months.
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+6
9
MattSully
liked
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Core Position Analysis (25/03-28/03 2024)
“Major profitable deals came into play right away... [They] acted differently, they burst and went, and I never needed to go through a period of failure with them.” -Peter Brandt
A quick review of this week's market behavior:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ with $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ distributed on Tuesday and Thursday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Dispatched on Tuesday and Wednesday.
SPX>NDX>DJI
This week was an obvious distribution week in terms of stocks;
It is worth noting the difference in trading volume between the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 actual stocks and index futures on Thursday and Friday: actual stock trading volume ~ Thursday > Friday, futures trading volume ~ Thursday < Friday; in combination with SPX, SPY, and QQQ, the three most active options are excessively unbalanced bullish/bearish on Thursday and Friday, so it's easy to understand the differences in index and futures trading volume;
Also, the 30MA, which I have been using to track this upward trend, was also broken through by the longest red candle with a large trading volume on Thursday (the longest red candle in the past 5 months), which is one of the most important factors in choosing one-click clearance after the day's close.
NDX...
“Major profitable deals came into play right away... [They] acted differently, they burst and went, and I never needed to go through a period of failure with them.” -Peter Brandt
A quick review of this week's market behavior:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ with $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ distributed on Tuesday and Thursday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Dispatched on Tuesday and Wednesday.
SPX>NDX>DJI
This week was an obvious distribution week in terms of stocks;
It is worth noting the difference in trading volume between the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 actual stocks and index futures on Thursday and Friday: actual stock trading volume ~ Thursday > Friday, futures trading volume ~ Thursday < Friday; in combination with SPX, SPY, and QQQ, the three most active options are excessively unbalanced bullish/bearish on Thursday and Friday, so it's easy to understand the differences in index and futures trading volume;
Also, the 30MA, which I have been using to track this upward trend, was also broken through by the longest red candle with a large trading volume on Thursday (the longest red candle in the past 5 months), which is one of the most important factors in choosing one-click clearance after the day's close.
NDX...
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MattSully
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New highs: The energy sector is clearly gaining strength, while the rest of the trends are slowing down or stagnating;
New low: Excluding the energy category, almost everything else showed a worsening trend;
Overall aspect: The new high minus the new low showed a clear worsening trend.
On the other hand, over the past month, all indices showed obvious signs of weakness. Most individual stock breakthroughs showed a rapid decline in strength and beginning to fall. Although some individual stocks still have some strength, the intensity is average and not surprising;
From March to the end of the first week of April, there was almost no growth. The account was in a cycle of profit, return, profit, and return to the net value at the end of February. In addition to the objective factors of market weakness, I myself also had many shortcomings in many areas, such as position regulation and lack of quick response to the discovery of new trends. Regardless of the results, traders themselves are fully responsible for them.
Combining the data shown in all aspects above, it is beneficial for me to be careful and start a defensive posture. Keep watching and wait patiently for the next gust of wind 🚴🏻
New low: Excluding the energy category, almost everything else showed a worsening trend;
Overall aspect: The new high minus the new low showed a clear worsening trend.
On the other hand, over the past month, all indices showed obvious signs of weakness. Most individual stock breakthroughs showed a rapid decline in strength and beginning to fall. Although some individual stocks still have some strength, the intensity is average and not surprising;
From March to the end of the first week of April, there was almost no growth. The account was in a cycle of profit, return, profit, and return to the net value at the end of February. In addition to the objective factors of market weakness, I myself also had many shortcomings in many areas, such as position regulation and lack of quick response to the discovery of new trends. Regardless of the results, traders themselves are fully responsible for them.
Combining the data shown in all aspects above, it is beneficial for me to be careful and start a defensive posture. Keep watching and wait patiently for the next gust of wind 🚴🏻
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+1
10
4
MattSully
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