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U.S stocks posted solid gains Wednesday after the to speed up the tapering of its bond purchases and potentially raise interest rates three times next year to fight inflation. The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and has best performance in more than a year on the day of a Fed desicion.
Pay attention to risky assets while commodities and energy could help fight inflation
“The upshot of these new forecasts is that the Fed has moved into line with market thinking.” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note.
However, some institutions warned that investors should pay close attention to whether the current rebound in risky assets in financial markets can continue in the coming period of time.
Sonal Desai, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton, warned that inflation-linked bonds run the risk of “some rather strange movements” as the Fed continues to intervene in the market. Instead, she prefers some commodity or energy-based currency as indirect safeguards against inflation.
Take history as a mirror: the growth would be better, and dollar index would be stronger
Generally speaking, the future market will first face the first two stages of Taper acceleration and formal interest rate hikes.
CICC reviews the period from the beginning to the end of QE reduction from 2013 to 2014:
On the stock market side, the U.S. stock market performed best and the growth style was better than value (NASDAQ > S&P 500 > Dow Jones), but the performance of emerging markets was mediocre.
On the exchange rate side, the dollar index strengthened and emerging market currencies weakened.
In commodities, crude oil, agricultural products and gold lagged behind, while industrial metals took the lead.
When the QE ends to formally raise interest rates, historical trends show that:
On the stock market side, US stocks are still doing well and Nasdaq, represented by growth style, is the best performer, while emerging market stocks are relatively lagging behind.
On the exchange rate side, the dollar index remained strong and emerging market currencies weakened.
In commodities, crude oil and industrial metals performed differently, while agricultural products and gold lagged behind.
CICC said that whether it is the expected stage of reducing or raising interest rates, monetary policy is not the core factor to completely reverse the trend of US stocks. And because the interest rate of long-end US debt is weaker at this time, the growth style is better.
It is also important to note that once a formal increase in interest rates, the U. S. stock market and the dollar index tend to be dragged down in the short term.
Chinese blue chips may perform better, RMB may depreciate
Zhongtai Securities expects that before the Fed raises interest rates, China is likely to ease measures, and it is possible to change interest rate.
If the Fed eventually raises interest rates next year, then China's equity market will gradually switch to blue chips, and the market value will be more dominant than the growth of small and medium-sized stocks.
In addition, while a strengthening of the dollar index, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is expected to rise somewhat.
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