$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Yann LeCun, revered as the father of machine learning, has been consistently cautious on the technical prospects of AI. His recent performance at Meta has been evident for all to see. Technically speaking, he may not necessarily be wrong, but at least Meta made the right decision in letting him go. The company’s culture that emphasizes rapid output and performance demands did not suit him, and some even suspected he was coasting on his reputation. On the surface, laying off Yann might seem like a negative development, but in reality, it could be a positive one.
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$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ Opportunities seldom knock twice—quickly open low-position call options.
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舍盘持难题纳婆罗为谛
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Family, due to the Microsoft order, NEBIUS has taken off after hours. Where do the NEBIUS chips come from? I foresee that the NVDA shorts will be squeezed tomorrow.
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$Costco (COST.US)$ Previously, there was a bull market, and the outlook for technology stocks was very positive, which naturally led to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets. Let's revisit this after the September market has mostly concluded.
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舍盘持难题纳婆罗为谛
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$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ Record the loss process of the 15/16 vertical call VIX Options I purchased in mid-July.
I bought these Options when the VIX was around 15, planning to use CPI, PPI, PCE, FOMC meeting, and the August 1st tariff as reference points for exiting. With the first four events not significantly impacting the VIX, and facing the bull market in Technology Earnings Reports at the end of July, I became pessimistic about the implementation of the August 1st tariff as the VIX continued to decline. Additionally, the market had already driven up the implied volatility (IV) of the VIX, making it increasingly unprofitable to hold these Options.
After the July PCE released at 8:30 AM on the 31st did not affect the VIX, I pessimistically believed that the tariffs on August 1st would ultimately be resolved with TACO as the majority and would not have a significant impact on the VIX. Part of the reason was due to reading an article PUSHed by moomoo, which suggested that Trump would continue to extend the 90-day period, maintaining tariffs as a threatening negotiation tool to achieve his desired outcomes. Another reason was that preliminary agreements had been reached with manufacturing bases (China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea) and the tax rates were relatively low. Therefore, in the morning, I cut my losses when the VIX was below 15.5.
It is now 8:30 PM, and the VIX closed at 16.7 today. The White House announced this evening the imposition of fentanyl-related and retaliatory tariffs on Canada. If I had not cut my losses in the morning but sold before the close, I could have reduced my losses...
I bought these Options when the VIX was around 15, planning to use CPI, PPI, PCE, FOMC meeting, and the August 1st tariff as reference points for exiting. With the first four events not significantly impacting the VIX, and facing the bull market in Technology Earnings Reports at the end of July, I became pessimistic about the implementation of the August 1st tariff as the VIX continued to decline. Additionally, the market had already driven up the implied volatility (IV) of the VIX, making it increasingly unprofitable to hold these Options.
After the July PCE released at 8:30 AM on the 31st did not affect the VIX, I pessimistically believed that the tariffs on August 1st would ultimately be resolved with TACO as the majority and would not have a significant impact on the VIX. Part of the reason was due to reading an article PUSHed by moomoo, which suggested that Trump would continue to extend the 90-day period, maintaining tariffs as a threatening negotiation tool to achieve his desired outcomes. Another reason was that preliminary agreements had been reached with manufacturing bases (China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea) and the tax rates were relatively low. Therefore, in the morning, I cut my losses when the VIX was below 15.5.
It is now 8:30 PM, and the VIX closed at 16.7 today. The White House announced this evening the imposition of fentanyl-related and retaliatory tariffs on Canada. If I had not cut my losses in the morning but sold before the close, I could have reduced my losses...
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舍盘持难题纳婆罗为谛
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$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ On the day of the Earnings Reports, after reviewing the earnings summary in the morning, I entered a 265/270 vertical Put Options, and sold them just before the market closed. I had hoped to profit from a smooth automatic closure, but with the PCE data, FOMC meeting, non-farm payrolls, and tariff news all coming at the end of the month, the market may experience some volatility and pullback, and funds will likely move into the insurance market for safety. Before the judicial investigation was initiated this year, UNH's performance often moved counter to the broader market, making it a sort of half-inverse indicator for the stock market. I was prepared for a potential rebound in UNH, so I closed my Options before the stock price returned to 264 in the afternoon. If the situation is clear, I might consider doing some end-of-week Options on Friday.
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舍盘持难题纳婆罗为谛
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During earnings reports week, the number of open interest contracts in the Options Chain and the maximum pain point cannot accurately predict the price range at the close on Friday. Their reference value is lower than usual because the implied volatility before earnings reports is very high. The time-reward curve for options during earnings reports also differs from its usual shape due to high implied volatility, with profits and losses remaining flat or even declining slightly before the earnings report, only to surge after the report is released.
If one wishes to predict stock price movements on earnings day, the inflow and outflow of large orders and Unusual Options Activity on the day before the earnings report are more valuable for reference. The inflow and outflow of large orders are the most intuitive, while Unusual Options Activity requires screening for relevant movements based on the expiration date that can provide insight into options expiring this week.
During the week of 07.21~07.25, I made mistakes with CNC and INTC. I blindly trusted the Options Chain's open interest (OI) and opened a 21 sell put on INTC. Before the earnings report was released on Thursday, the outflow of large orders was three to four times the inflow, and the stock had already fallen below 21 by the close. However, I did not close my position, betting that the earnings report would exceed expectations and cause the stock price to rebound, which ultimately resulted in a loss. INTC fell to as low as 20.4, and eventually closed at 20.7. The significant outflow actually indicated that large Institutions were not bullish on INTC's earnings report this time.
Due to company-specific reasons, the earnings reports did not meet expectations: even if Chen Liwu is highly capable, Intel is a large ship that is difficult to turn around. The recent strategic shift of abandoning the 14a process makes it almost inevitable for the earnings reports to fall short of expectations.
CNC fell to $27 on Monday, and I opened a 28.5/28 vertical Put, but it didn't hold up.
If one wishes to predict stock price movements on earnings day, the inflow and outflow of large orders and Unusual Options Activity on the day before the earnings report are more valuable for reference. The inflow and outflow of large orders are the most intuitive, while Unusual Options Activity requires screening for relevant movements based on the expiration date that can provide insight into options expiring this week.
During the week of 07.21~07.25, I made mistakes with CNC and INTC. I blindly trusted the Options Chain's open interest (OI) and opened a 21 sell put on INTC. Before the earnings report was released on Thursday, the outflow of large orders was three to four times the inflow, and the stock had already fallen below 21 by the close. However, I did not close my position, betting that the earnings report would exceed expectations and cause the stock price to rebound, which ultimately resulted in a loss. INTC fell to as low as 20.4, and eventually closed at 20.7. The significant outflow actually indicated that large Institutions were not bullish on INTC's earnings report this time.
Due to company-specific reasons, the earnings reports did not meet expectations: even if Chen Liwu is highly capable, Intel is a large ship that is difficult to turn around. The recent strategic shift of abandoning the 14a process makes it almost inevitable for the earnings reports to fall short of expectations.
CNC fell to $27 on Monday, and I opened a 28.5/28 vertical Put, but it didn't hold up.
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舍盘持难题纳婆罗为谛
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$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ Enter a position at 282.40 before the market opens, and add to the position as circumstances warrant.
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舍盘持难题纳婆罗为谛
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$Intel (INTC.US)$ I have two 21 put options to sell for tomorrow.
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舍盘持难题纳婆罗为谛
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$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ After closing the CNC vertical put in the morning, it is judged based on the CNC stock price that the medical insurance sector may be approaching a stage where bearish news has been largely exhausted. CNC will release its earnings reports before the market opens on Friday, and there is still significant volatility. Therefore, I chose UNH, which is less affected, and heavily invested at $287.91. The stock closed at $292.63 today, and I hope it will reach near the maximum pain point of the options chain by the end of Friday.
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