The core issue for Pop Mart at this time is not that the market lacks a story, but that the story can no longer immediately drive the stock price. On one hand, investors see long queues at stores, strong product sales, and continued buzz around Labubu and new IPs; on the other hand, they see the stock price stuck between 155 and 160, with weak rebounds as funds flow into other strong stocks. This disparity has shifted market sentiment from 'high growth belief' to questioning whether the valuation has peaked.
The first level of investor commentary reflects continued anticipation of product popularity. Some mention that stores are still crowded and demand remains strong, while others believe Pop Mart's P/E ratio is not high and that trendy toys are still a long-term trend. The logic of this group is: the company’s fundamentals are intact, the brand remains attractive, and valuations should not be excessively cut.
The second level is the disappointment caused by the lack of stock price momentum. Many comments focus on regrets such as 'regret not selling at 160', 'stuck around 155 for a long time', 'can't rise even in a bull market', and 'the weakest component stock'. These comments indicate that the market no longer blindly trusts product popularity and now demands proof through stock price movement that capital is still willing to chase the stock.
The third level reflects the pressure from trapped positions at higher levels. Some ask, 'Are there still holdings above 300?', while others express long-term losses and difficulty breaking even. This shows that Pop Mart faces significant psychological resistance above current levels, and once the stock rebounds towards 160-170, some funds will likely choose to reduce their positions.
The fourth level involves options and capital gaming. Comments mention active sell put strategies, investment banks suppressing prices to harvest profits, and large orders keeping the stock suppressed. Such commentary indicates the market has...