Weekly Summary and Next Week's Trend
Last week, the overall US stock market mostly exhibited a sideways consolidation and narrow fluctuation pattern before Friday, with strong market cautious sentiment. On Thursday, a temporary disruption in sentiment occurred due to the verbal clash between Donald Trump and Elon Musk, which led to intensified intraday fluctuations, but just before the close, a backtest of the eight-day line received Resistance, indicating that the bearish funds did not have a collective intention.
On Friday, boosted by positive non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data, all three major indices rose simultaneously. The S&P 500 tested the 6000 integer level, indicating the bulls' intent to launch another offensive. Structurally, it is observed that the market is likely to challenge the previous highs upwards next week.
Russell 2000
Last Friday, the U.S. stock market made an overall advance, especially with IWM showing a crucial breakthrough: it gapped up and moved above the 210 mark, breaking through the previous two weeks' repeatedly suppressed range highs. This move not only completed the breakthrough of the short-term consolidation platform but also indicates that small-cap stocks have the momentum to continue moving up, and market risk appetite is warming up.
Currently, the 210 mark has turned from resistance to support, becoming the primary support level to watch next week. As long as it can hold steady, there is hope for a continuous upward challenge towards the next resistance area at 215.
The strong performance of the Russell has a positive stimulating effect on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicating that the market is no longer supported solely by large-cap technology stocks, but is beginning to spread to small and mid-cap stocks, which is beneficial for the overall market to continue moving upwards.
S&P 500
SPY tested the 600 integer level during last Friday's trading but ultimately failed to hold above it, closing below 600.

Weekly Summary and Next Week's Trend
Last week, the U.S. stock market continued its consolidation, with major indices fluctuating within key Range, presenting a situation where bulls and bears are evenly matched. From the market structure perspective, short-term funds tend to be cautious, lacking strong incentives for a breakout, while there is no obvious panic selling pressure below, indicating that support remains solid. Under these circumstances, whether going long or short, position control is very important.
The current market focus will shift towards the upcoming macro data release, especially the non-farm payroll data, which could become a key catalyst for breaking the consolidation Range.
Russell 2000 (IWM)
IWM is currently still above the 21-day moving average, technically showing a neutral to bullish pattern, but no clear breakout or trend continuation signal has appeared. Overall, it presents a box consolidation pattern, with buyers showing support at lower levels, but simultaneously lacking the strong momentum to push prices higher.
It is noteworthy that small-cap stocks are more sensitive to market capital rotation and economic conditions, so if there are significant economic data releases exceeding expectations next week, IWM may react first. Additionally, if it can break through the recent horizontal Range upper edge with increased volume, a trend of breaking through resistance is expected.
Currently, it is not recommended to increase positions; it is better to wait for a clear breakout with increased volume or a breakdown below critical support before making any arrangements.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The SPY traded in a range of 580–595 throughout the week, rebounding quickly after a backtest of 582.83 during Friday's session, demonstrating a strong defensive Bid below. Nevertheless, overall...

Has the U.S. external tariff policy truly come to an end? This question remains in a tug-of-war between law and politics.
Recently, the tariff bill has been blocked by the federal court on the grounds of questioning whether the president has the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs without congressional authorization.
But this is not the end. The White House administration team has appealed the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, intending to overturn the restrictions from the federal court. It is worth noting that the current Supreme Court is dominated by conservative justices, and there have been several past rulings demonstrating support for executive power.
The Supreme Court signals its support for executive power.
One of the most representative cases is the recent Supreme Court ruling supporting the Doge government efficiency department's ability to keep a large number of internal administrative documents private. This case focuses on the balance between administrative transparency and efficiency, and the court ultimately chose to side with the government, believing that protecting internal decision-making processes in specific circumstances helps maintain executive effectiveness.
This position sends a key signal: if it involves national strategy, administrative discretion, or international economic and trade decisions, the Supreme Court may tend to grant administrative agencies greater leeway.
Therefore, if the White House argues that tariff measures fall under administrative authority and claims they directly impact national security and industrial competition, the Supreme Court is very likely to rule that they can continue to be implemented.
In addition, even if the federal court blocks the current tariff legislation, President Trump can appeal to the Supreme Court and issue new executive orders while invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Weekly Summary and Next Week's Trend
Last week, SPY attempted to rise above the price around 595 but was subsequently pushed down. On Wednesday, we mentioned in the group that a descending three methods structure might occur for three hours, and the strength continued to weaken. Additionally, we also pointed out that the daily chart could show a potential island reversal structure. Currently, the overall market state is forming a trend of weakening bulls. The entire Candlestick pattern is in a continuous and slow state of transformation. Although there is still an opportunity for a downward backtest of the gap next week, we have already closed all short positions and hedging positions for profit on Friday. Moreover, all Gold-related symbols were sold out on Thursday.
Russell 2000
IWM can be used as a leading indicator for the overall market to observe subsequent trends next week. It can first move within the Range of 200-205 to determine the direction. Combined with next week's events to boost sentiment and guide the strength of the Bids or Sells. Currently, it is still above the 21-day moving average, so let’s first look at two important levels, 202.46 and 198.5.
S&P 500
Looking at this week, SPY has made two moves down after reaching 595.5. Next week, it is necessary to observe the strength of the gap. Since the 21-day moving average is still hovering below the gap, it is important to monitor the strength of the market. Although this Friday showed that the bulls still have some strength, the overall momentum continues to trend downward (but the momentum is still in a moderately bullish state). Currently, it seems that...

Last week, the S&P 500 (SPX) finished in the green for five consecutive trading days, reaching near the resistance zone around 5950. While the index is moving up, we observed a weakening in the bullish momentum at the individual stock level, particularly among some leading stocks where the Bid momentum appears insufficient. Considering this situation, we have recommended trimming profitable positions this week, while establishing hedge positions on Thursday to address potential market risks.
After the market closed on Friday, Moody's downgraded the USA sovereign credit rating from the highest Aaa to Aa1, marking the first time since the downgrades by S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023 that all three major rating agencies have collectively downgraded the USA credit rating. This reflects market concerns about the fiscal path of the USA, which may impose pressure on market sentiment and further strengthens our recommendation to establish hedge positions.
Russell 2000
IWM fell back over the last two days after reaching around 209.6 in the past two or three days, and on Friday it climbed back above 209.6. Notably, IWM has been hovering above the 8-day moving average, and Friday's volume showed an increase. The bottoms on Thursday and Friday have continued to rise, and there has been no filling of the lower gap in five days. However, throughout the entire Candlestick ascension, there has been no obvious pullback, suggesting sustained overextension. Additionally, the event of Moody's downgrading the USA's sovereign credit rating after hours on Friday necessitates attention to market dynamics before Monday's trading. If market sentiment suddenly shifts, it may lead to the lower gap being filled.

Weekly Summary and Next Week's Trend
Last week, we can still see that the overall market remains in a volatile trend and has not yet escaped the consolidation pattern. We mentioned that the strength of the second gap is not very stable and there is a chance to fill the gap. After backtesting the 8-day moving average on Tuesday and Wednesday, the SPY jumped back up to 562.5. However, we can see that the strength of the Bid is not enough to jointly push for a new level. After profit-taking on Thursday, a bearish candle opened on Friday. Although it remains above 562.5, it can be observed that the buying power has weakened.
Russell 2000
IWM currently looks stronger compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. We saw two tests of the Support at 202.7 on Thursday and Friday, then a backtest at the price of 200, closing above it. However, the buying strength of the S&P 500 has weakened on Thursday and Friday, so it is advisable to pay attention to the 8-day and 21-day moving averages. If the 21-day moving average cannot be maintained, it is likely that the gap below will be filled.
S&P 500
Currently, SPY shows a weakening of buying strength on Thursday and Friday. It appears that if it tests 562.5 again, there is a high probability it may not hold. From the perspective of moving averages, we will pay attention to the 8-day and 21-day lines next week. If the 8-day line cannot hold, it will likely drop to test the 21-day line. If it cannot hold, the gap below must be filled. If it can break above 567.5 next week, it may test higher levels...

This is a very tricky problem currently faced by the Federal Reserve.
This is certainly no joke; even Fed Chair Powell has explicitly said that this will be a "very difficult decision."
First, the Federal Reserve's dilemma.
In simple terms, the Federal Reserve now faces two choices: one is to keep interest rates high, like the current 4.25-4.5%, which can suppress inflation and prevent prices from rising too quickly; the other is to cut rates to stimulate economic growth, as recent economic data has not been favorable, such as the negative GDP of -0.3% in Q1 2025 (mainly from stocking up due to short-term tariff issues), marking the first negative growth since 2022.
However, the problem is that these two goals somewhat conflict with each other: controlling inflation may cool the economy further, while cutting rates raises concerns about inflation kicking up, which is quite troubling for the Federal Reserve.
Secondly, this time is different from the past.
One might generally think that with the economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve should quickly lower interest rates, like it did in the past to preemptively rescue the market. But this time it's different.
The Federal Reserve's current stance is very clear; they will not lower interest rates just because they 'feel that the economy might slow down'. They want to see concrete data, especially labor market data, to decide whether to take action. Richard Clarida, the former number two at the Federal Reserve and a current advisor at Pimco, stated that this time decisions need to be based solely on 'visible hard data'. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is currently focused only on the data...

Weekly Summary and Next Week's Trend
Last week, the market performed strongly,
the three major Indices exhibited an upward structure.
Established the longest consecutive rise since 2004.
This rebound was mainly driven by strong employment reports and
optimism over easing US-China trade tensions. SPY hit near the 200-day moving average after rising for eight consecutive days.
Recent gains have been strong, but the Volume has gradually contracted,
Moreover, market participation has reached a high level,
indicating that the rebound momentum in most markets in the short term is very rapid.
However, there are also potential risks.
Next week is very critical,
Be sure to be careful in dealing with whether there is a false breakout.
Russell 2000
IWM reached the resistance area near 200 last Friday.
This position requires special attention.
This area is not only the midpoint of last year's trading range,
but also the support point after the pullback following the drop in early August last year.
(currently it is a support position),
There is strong pressure on the chips.
At this stage, it is necessary to observe whether Friday's rise belongs to
a real breakout of the 50 moving average or just a false breakout of the 50-day moving average,
especially when there is insufficient time.
It is even more necessary to respond cautiously to the pullback or consolidation risks in this area.
S&P 500
SPY is near the 200-day moving average.
And near the pullback position around October,
The peak of the chips in this area is also relatively high.
The price level near Friday's closing price
There are many cases of false breakouts.
Furthermore, this price is at the top position of the upward channel.
Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention next week to see if the price can hold at 562.5...

Last week, the market rebounded after the Large Cap didn't break its lowest point, with all three major indices showing significant rebounds. On Thursday, there was a short covering action, leading to a slight increase on Friday. However, the issue is that Volume is now decreasing again, so for next week, we lean towards a consolidation action or a backtest of the downward Trendlines. It is currently not in the right-side position, so it is necessary to remain vigilant about the strength of the backtest and position control.
Russell 2000
Last week, IWM broke above 190, and the bulls continued to push upward, but on Friday it stagnated, and Volume began to shrink. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for a backtest of the gap next week. If a horizontal adjustment can be completed here, it would be suitable to enter and add positions. However, if the selling pressure continues and the lower levels cannot be held, caution is still needed.
S&P 500
If SPY experiences volatile backtesting next week, we will observe whether the descending Trendlines and gap positions can create a buying opportunity. Currently, we need to note that 21 is above, which corresponds to the formation of bullish Bids. The key support level to monitor is at 522.4, along with the downward Trendlines. Additionally, if the bulls cannot maintain their position here, it's important to pay attention to whether 511.78 can be held, otherwise this week's gains may need to start over.
Nasdaq Indices.
We need to pay attention to the upcoming backtest with oscillations next week. We can observe the tests of the downward Trendlines and the gaps.

From 2016 to 2024, the status of the supply chain to the U.S. can show that the U.S. has been taking actions to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains—remaining only with a relatively large share in electronic components. This should reflect the recent behavior of separating tariffs on electronic components for calculation.

Currently, the prices of U.S. products began to decline last month, and as previously mentioned, due to tariffs, countries have started to stockpile large amounts of goods; if this causes the current situation of large stockpiling, there is a high probability that it will create a market inflation of "stagflation" in the second half of the year, where inflation and the deflationary pressure from stockpiling collide, in order to digest the inflation problem.
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