Last night, the three major U.S. indexes showed mixed performance, and Gold rebounded sharply!
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$Up by 0.94%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Closed up 0.47%, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$Closed down 0.02%.
$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$The price continued to rise after the A-shares closed, closing up 0.55% as of 5:00 AM on July 3.
However, Gold significantly dropped after opening in the Asian session this morning, which is quite unusual. Based on the optimistic expectations for tonight's non-farm employment data, a purchase of Gold was made in the market this morning for a short-term trade.
1. U.S. June ADP employment data
Last night, during Pre-Market Trading, the ADP employment figures for June were released, showing that the U.S. private sector employment decreased by 0.033 million, significantly below the expected 0.095 million and lower than the previous value of 0.037 million.
This decline greatly exceeded economists' expectations, with ADP employment data showing a decrease instead of an increase, marking the first negative growth since February 2023.
From the breakdown of the data, professional and business services, as well as education and health services, are the main sources of job reductions. In contrast, the leisure and hospitality industry and manufacturing experienced strong growth, which may reflect the combined impact of tariffs and immigration deportation policies to some extent.
After the data was released, expectations for interest rate cuts have once again risen. $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$Clearly weakened.
根据芝商所...
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$Up by 0.94%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Closed up 0.47%, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$Closed down 0.02%.
$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$The price continued to rise after the A-shares closed, closing up 0.55% as of 5:00 AM on July 3.
However, Gold significantly dropped after opening in the Asian session this morning, which is quite unusual. Based on the optimistic expectations for tonight's non-farm employment data, a purchase of Gold was made in the market this morning for a short-term trade.
1. U.S. June ADP employment data
Last night, during Pre-Market Trading, the ADP employment figures for June were released, showing that the U.S. private sector employment decreased by 0.033 million, significantly below the expected 0.095 million and lower than the previous value of 0.037 million.
This decline greatly exceeded economists' expectations, with ADP employment data showing a decrease instead of an increase, marking the first negative growth since February 2023.
From the breakdown of the data, professional and business services, as well as education and health services, are the main sources of job reductions. In contrast, the leisure and hospitality industry and manufacturing experienced strong growth, which may reflect the combined impact of tariffs and immigration deportation policies to some extent.
After the data was released, expectations for interest rate cuts have once again risen. $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$Clearly weakened.
根据芝商所...
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A friendly reminder: The content of this article may be a bit verbose, beware of reading fatigue, and consume it judiciously.
How did time run out?
Yesterday, I was fortunate enough to receive a private message from the official account, asking me to share my investment journey and trading insights from the first half of the year.
Actually, I was stunned at that moment and instinctively glanced at the Calendar: how is it already the end of June?
This past half-year has gone by particularly quickly. It felt like being trapped in a cycle of 'review - adjust - trial and error', with time slipping away in the blink of an eye. It also felt a bit slow. Slow in every moment of hesitation, every reflection after a stop-loss, as if the sense of time was being stretched, making one's nerves extremely sensitive.
Slowly adjusting the pace.
Can't say I am satisfied, but it’s not too bad either. Overall, in the first half of the year, the profit in this Account reached 2.8 million.
To be more precise, it is about "surviving, slowly adjusting": adjusting the mindset, adjusting the positions, adjusting the pace.
However, compared to the numbers in the Account, the biggest gain in the first half of the year is actually people.
This year, met a group of particularly lovely mooers on moomoo, sharing similar interests and complementary ideas. We created a small group, calling ourselves the "Café."
The atmosphere in this group is really special—learning from each other, reminding each other, without anyone leading the rhythm, and no high-and-mighty "stock gods". We analyze logic, discuss viewpoints, and sometimes chat about light Topics outside of the stock market, even jokes and grievances, which we can all relate to.
In this relaxed environment, everyone has found their own rhythm and rewards.
I believe that the members of the hall can also see that behind those profit and loss numbers, there are actually a group of people together...
How did time run out?
Yesterday, I was fortunate enough to receive a private message from the official account, asking me to share my investment journey and trading insights from the first half of the year.
Actually, I was stunned at that moment and instinctively glanced at the Calendar: how is it already the end of June?
This past half-year has gone by particularly quickly. It felt like being trapped in a cycle of 'review - adjust - trial and error', with time slipping away in the blink of an eye. It also felt a bit slow. Slow in every moment of hesitation, every reflection after a stop-loss, as if the sense of time was being stretched, making one's nerves extremely sensitive.
Slowly adjusting the pace.
Can't say I am satisfied, but it’s not too bad either. Overall, in the first half of the year, the profit in this Account reached 2.8 million.
To be more precise, it is about "surviving, slowly adjusting": adjusting the mindset, adjusting the positions, adjusting the pace.
However, compared to the numbers in the Account, the biggest gain in the first half of the year is actually people.
This year, met a group of particularly lovely mooers on moomoo, sharing similar interests and complementary ideas. We created a small group, calling ourselves the "Café."
The atmosphere in this group is really special—learning from each other, reminding each other, without anyone leading the rhythm, and no high-and-mighty "stock gods". We analyze logic, discuss viewpoints, and sometimes chat about light Topics outside of the stock market, even jokes and grievances, which we can all relate to.
In this relaxed environment, everyone has found their own rhythm and rewards.
I believe that the members of the hall can also see that behind those profit and loss numbers, there are actually a group of people together...
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Let me get to the point:Once the YU7 is released, Xiaomi's valuation logic has been reconstructed!
You may not believe Lei Jun, and you may even look down on Xiaomi, but if you disregard the fact that the SU7 is selling explosively and that the YU7 broke through 0.2 million in just 3 minutes, then you are not qualified to talk about 'growth potential.'
What achievements has the SU7 made in the past six months? Monthly sales of 0.028 million vehicles, cumulative delivery of over 0.25 million units, not relying on subsidies or capital brainwashing, but on product strength and ecosystem integration. This is not just talk; it's profit. The key is, it’s not a flash in the pan.Now that the YU7 is out, it is clear that Xiaomi is aiming for 'brand replication + valuation reassessment.'
Speaking of pricing, starting at 0.2535 million yuan, and the configuration is generous, with radar, laser, high pressure fast charging, and an intelligent chassis all maximizing the offerings, it presents itself with the attitude of 'I am not just here to grab sales, I am here to seize market mindset.'To put it bluntly, the YU7 is not here to fight for a meal, but to change the tablecloth.
And don't forget, Xiaomi's secret weapon is not just cars, but ratheran ecological closed loop.Other companies' cars are like mobile home appliances, while Xiaomi's cars are an extension of your phone and home. The moment you sit in the car, all your devices, habits, and preferences automatically connect; this kind of experience, do you think an ideal can be achieved by the likes of问界? They are still making cars, while Xiaomi is already "creating a lifestyle."
In simple terms, the Technology aspect is... $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ It had been sideways around HKD 54 for nearly half a month. Just holding steady without dropping means someone is preventing it from falling. It's not that no one is watching; it's just that large funds are waiting for the shoe to drop.Now Y...
You may not believe Lei Jun, and you may even look down on Xiaomi, but if you disregard the fact that the SU7 is selling explosively and that the YU7 broke through 0.2 million in just 3 minutes, then you are not qualified to talk about 'growth potential.'
What achievements has the SU7 made in the past six months? Monthly sales of 0.028 million vehicles, cumulative delivery of over 0.25 million units, not relying on subsidies or capital brainwashing, but on product strength and ecosystem integration. This is not just talk; it's profit. The key is, it’s not a flash in the pan.Now that the YU7 is out, it is clear that Xiaomi is aiming for 'brand replication + valuation reassessment.'
Speaking of pricing, starting at 0.2535 million yuan, and the configuration is generous, with radar, laser, high pressure fast charging, and an intelligent chassis all maximizing the offerings, it presents itself with the attitude of 'I am not just here to grab sales, I am here to seize market mindset.'To put it bluntly, the YU7 is not here to fight for a meal, but to change the tablecloth.
And don't forget, Xiaomi's secret weapon is not just cars, but ratheran ecological closed loop.Other companies' cars are like mobile home appliances, while Xiaomi's cars are an extension of your phone and home. The moment you sit in the car, all your devices, habits, and preferences automatically connect; this kind of experience, do you think an ideal can be achieved by the likes of问界? They are still making cars, while Xiaomi is already "creating a lifestyle."
In simple terms, the Technology aspect is... $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ It had been sideways around HKD 54 for nearly half a month. Just holding steady without dropping means someone is preventing it from falling. It's not that no one is watching; it's just that large funds are waiting for the shoe to drop.Now Y...
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Two days before NVIDIA's shareholders meeting, Huang Renxun sold 140,000 shares of NVDA stock between June 18 and 23, cashing out 20.2 million dollars. Huang Renxun's selling behavior is part of NVIDIA's new10b5-1 planthat was disclosed in NVIDIA's quarterly report last month, with the entire plan expected to sell up to 865 million dollars worth of stocks by the end of the year.This time, he chose to "cash out in advance" on the eve of the shareholders meeting, what kind of market signals does this release?
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Historical Review: How do stock prices behave before and after the Shareholder Meeting?
We have reviewed the past.The stock price performance during the week of the Shareholder Meeting over the past four years.We found that the trends after the Shareholder Meeting are very similar, both.Experiencing short-term fluctuations followed by a mid-term trend.Therefore, the Shareholder Meeting is not the realization of Bullish Signals, but rather.Direction confirmation.Especially in years when the trends in the AI Industry are clear.
Preview of the 2025 Shareholders' Meeting: No groundbreaking technology, but Jensen Huang's speech is crucial.
The NVIDIA Shareholders' Meeting will be held at 12:00 AM Eastern Time on June 26. Although new products won't be announced like at GTC, as a global leader in AI, changes in corporate governance, the content of Jensen Huang's speech, and the outlook for the AI Global Strategy will still have a huge impact on the market.
Topics to focus on and may be mentioned in this Shareholders' Meeting:
The annual NVIDIA Shareholders' Meetings have mainly focused on:
✅ Executive compensation votes (especially for Jensen Huang, as his compensation has been repeatedly discussed due to the rise in stock prices)
✅ Election of board members (governance stability...
We have reviewed the past.The stock price performance during the week of the Shareholder Meeting over the past four years.We found that the trends after the Shareholder Meeting are very similar, both.Experiencing short-term fluctuations followed by a mid-term trend.Therefore, the Shareholder Meeting is not the realization of Bullish Signals, but rather.Direction confirmation.Especially in years when the trends in the AI Industry are clear.
Preview of the 2025 Shareholders' Meeting: No groundbreaking technology, but Jensen Huang's speech is crucial.
The NVIDIA Shareholders' Meeting will be held at 12:00 AM Eastern Time on June 26. Although new products won't be announced like at GTC, as a global leader in AI, changes in corporate governance, the content of Jensen Huang's speech, and the outlook for the AI Global Strategy will still have a huge impact on the market.
Topics to focus on and may be mentioned in this Shareholders' Meeting:
The annual NVIDIA Shareholders' Meetings have mainly focused on:
✅ Executive compensation votes (especially for Jensen Huang, as his compensation has been repeatedly discussed due to the rise in stock prices)
✅ Election of board members (governance stability...
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Trump's pressure seems to be taking effect, or as some friends jokingly say, they hope that after Powell leaves, someone else will have a chance to take over. Regardless, the dovish stance of Federal Reserve officials gives a bit of hope for a rate cut in July.
Waller recently stated: "I fully support the idea that perhaps we should start considering cuts to the policy rate at the next meeting, because we do not want to wait until the job market collapses before we begin to cut the policy rate."
Bowman stated that the price increase pressure caused by tariffs seems to have been offset, and now is the time to consider adjusting the policy rate.
Goolsbee: Currently, the impact of tariffs has not been as severe as expected; the effects of tariffs have weakened due to reduced tax rates and exemptions. The extent of tariff transmission has diminished compared to the past. If tariffs do not lead to high inflation, interest rate cuts will be restored.
However, according to CME's "FedWatch": As of the morning of the 23rd, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is 30%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 60%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 10%.
The reason for this is that the biggest boss, Powell, remains hawkish.
It is noteworthy that Powell has semi-annual policy reports tonight and tomorrow night. Let’s see if he will show any signs of easing then (although I think according to his character, he will probably just repeat the same few phrases).
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ ...
Waller recently stated: "I fully support the idea that perhaps we should start considering cuts to the policy rate at the next meeting, because we do not want to wait until the job market collapses before we begin to cut the policy rate."
Bowman stated that the price increase pressure caused by tariffs seems to have been offset, and now is the time to consider adjusting the policy rate.
Goolsbee: Currently, the impact of tariffs has not been as severe as expected; the effects of tariffs have weakened due to reduced tax rates and exemptions. The extent of tariff transmission has diminished compared to the past. If tariffs do not lead to high inflation, interest rate cuts will be restored.
However, according to CME's "FedWatch": As of the morning of the 23rd, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is 30%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 60%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 10%.
The reason for this is that the biggest boss, Powell, remains hawkish.
It is noteworthy that Powell has semi-annual policy reports tonight and tomorrow night. Let’s see if he will show any signs of easing then (although I think according to his character, he will probably just repeat the same few phrases).
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ ...
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1. In the new week, five major risks are approaching the global Capital Markets.
As the US military strikes three major nuclear facilities in Iran, global Capital Markets are showing significant volatility. According to Bloomberg, investors are seeking safe-haven assets, and the market expects that in the short term:
The stock market may experience a pullback.；
Crude Oil Product prices are under upward pressure.；
The US dollar is tending to strengthen.。
Morgan Stanley believes that if the situation quickly eases, oil prices may pull back to $60 per barrel; if the situation remains tense, oil prices will fluctuate at high levels.
The most critical variable is whether the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked. This strait is one of the world's most important energy transportation routes, accounting for about one-fifth of global maritime oil transport. If this route is interrupted, crude oil prices could quickly exceed $100 per barrel, posing a direct threat to global economic recovery.
Currently, although Iran has not explicitly declared that it will block the strait, its high-ranking officials continue to send vague signals of reserving "all options." At the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to persuade Iran to avoid blocking the strait, reflecting U.S. vigilance on this matter.
As of now, Wall Street has not shown expectations for a "sharp surge in oil prices," but if Iran chooses to react aggressively in the coming days, the situation in Hormuz may become the key trigger that undermines market confidence.
Aside from geopolitical risks, this Friday will also welcome...two key macroeconomic data points.：
The core PCE price index for the United States in May.: This is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, which will directly impact its assessment of interest rate policy...
As the US military strikes three major nuclear facilities in Iran, global Capital Markets are showing significant volatility. According to Bloomberg, investors are seeking safe-haven assets, and the market expects that in the short term:
The stock market may experience a pullback.；
Crude Oil Product prices are under upward pressure.；
The US dollar is tending to strengthen.。
Morgan Stanley believes that if the situation quickly eases, oil prices may pull back to $60 per barrel; if the situation remains tense, oil prices will fluctuate at high levels.
The most critical variable is whether the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked. This strait is one of the world's most important energy transportation routes, accounting for about one-fifth of global maritime oil transport. If this route is interrupted, crude oil prices could quickly exceed $100 per barrel, posing a direct threat to global economic recovery.
Currently, although Iran has not explicitly declared that it will block the strait, its high-ranking officials continue to send vague signals of reserving "all options." At the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to persuade Iran to avoid blocking the strait, reflecting U.S. vigilance on this matter.
As of now, Wall Street has not shown expectations for a "sharp surge in oil prices," but if Iran chooses to react aggressively in the coming days, the situation in Hormuz may become the key trigger that undermines market confidence.
Aside from geopolitical risks, this Friday will also welcome...two key macroeconomic data points.：
The core PCE price index for the United States in May.: This is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, which will directly impact its assessment of interest rate policy...
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Recently, the trend in the AI Sector has noticeably changed,shifting from 'technical explanations' to 'practical implementation.'In the past, the competition was about whose large model was stronger and whose computing power was better; now the focus is on who can implement AI in real scenarios and close the business loop. This is an important turning point for investors.
The view is:The true dividends of AI may not necessarily come from the companies with the most advanced models or strongest chips, but from those players who can effectively utilize AI and generate profit.This is the direction we should focus on for stock selection in the next phase.
First, let's talk about the latest developments in AI.in the defense sector.OpenAI recently secured a $0.2 billion contract with the U.S. Department of Defense.
OpenAI recently secured a $0.2 billion order from the United States Department of Defense. $Oracle (ORCL.US)$Military AI solutions have also been launched, including encrypted cloud and intelligence analysis. This indicates that.AI has already moved from the laboratory to the real battlefield.。
For old players $Palantir (PLTR.US)$Although the number of competitors has increased, it is not believed that its moat will be weakened. Platform-based companies like Oracle may actually become its partners to jointly push AI into practical application. Moreover, Palantir currently has clear orders and policy support, making it a company that can be held for the medium term. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, pullbacks are seen as opportunities for low buying.
Looking at the application layer, this is the truly "promising" change.
$Reddit (RDDT.US)$A while ago, an AI advertising placement tool was launched...
The view is:The true dividends of AI may not necessarily come from the companies with the most advanced models or strongest chips, but from those players who can effectively utilize AI and generate profit.This is the direction we should focus on for stock selection in the next phase.
First, let's talk about the latest developments in AI.in the defense sector.OpenAI recently secured a $0.2 billion contract with the U.S. Department of Defense.
OpenAI recently secured a $0.2 billion order from the United States Department of Defense. $Oracle (ORCL.US)$Military AI solutions have also been launched, including encrypted cloud and intelligence analysis. This indicates that.AI has already moved from the laboratory to the real battlefield.。
For old players $Palantir (PLTR.US)$Although the number of competitors has increased, it is not believed that its moat will be weakened. Platform-based companies like Oracle may actually become its partners to jointly push AI into practical application. Moreover, Palantir currently has clear orders and policy support, making it a company that can be held for the medium term. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, pullbacks are seen as opportunities for low buying.
Looking at the application layer, this is the truly "promising" change.
$Reddit (RDDT.US)$A while ago, an AI advertising placement tool was launched...
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Does seeing a police officer make one automatically run away? Tesla's "new feature" has become popular on social media these past couple of days!
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Jokes are jokes, but this time Tesla's Robotaxi is really coming, it's the kind that 'drives itself home'! On June 22, Tesla will launch the Robotaxi in Austin, which is the 'Fully Autonomous Driving Taxi' project.
This car may not have a steering wheel or pedals. Elon Musk said,The first mass-produced car on June 28 will be automatically delivered to the user's doorstep.This time it's not just a pipe dream, it's solid evidence on the way.
At the same time, Musk revealed that the parameter count of the FSD model will be that of the current version.4.5 times, which can be called a one-time event.a "brain restructuring".This marksTesla's autonomous driving product line has entered a technological explosion window.。
In one sentence: This is what Tesla wants to do."iPhone + Uber + App Store"Hybrid.
1.Business model evolution: Robotaxi not only sells cars, but also sells "services" and "operation". The long-term goal is to create a global network of self-driving taxis and achieve subscription income from autonomous driving (similar to FSD monthly subscription).
2.Switching valuation logic.From "hardware manufacturing" to "high-margin software + platform-based revenue", Robotaxi can enhance Tesla's profit elasticity in the next 5 years, referring to Apple's "iPhone → App Store ..."
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Jokes are jokes, but this time Tesla's Robotaxi is really coming, it's the kind that 'drives itself home'! On June 22, Tesla will launch the Robotaxi in Austin, which is the 'Fully Autonomous Driving Taxi' project.
This car may not have a steering wheel or pedals. Elon Musk said,The first mass-produced car on June 28 will be automatically delivered to the user's doorstep.This time it's not just a pipe dream, it's solid evidence on the way.
At the same time, Musk revealed that the parameter count of the FSD model will be that of the current version.4.5 times, which can be called a one-time event.a "brain restructuring".This marksTesla's autonomous driving product line has entered a technological explosion window.。
In one sentence: This is what Tesla wants to do."iPhone + Uber + App Store"Hybrid.
1.Business model evolution: Robotaxi not only sells cars, but also sells "services" and "operation". The long-term goal is to create a global network of self-driving taxis and achieve subscription income from autonomous driving (similar to FSD monthly subscription).
2.Switching valuation logic.From "hardware manufacturing" to "high-margin software + platform-based revenue", Robotaxi can enhance Tesla's profit elasticity in the next 5 years, referring to Apple's "iPhone → App Store ..."
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$POP MART (09992.HK)$ A mint green Labubu, standing 131 cm tall, was auctioned on June 10 forOver 1 million yuan.This first-generation collectible doll, released in 2019, originally priced at only 2999 yuan — a myth with a 360 times premium over 4 years, embodying the wealth creation ability of the POP MART IP.
This ‘Spirit Monster’ created by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung will contribute to POP MART in 2024.Generated revenue of 3.04 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 726.6%).It became the company's first IP. The Labubu 3.0 rubber plush series launched in April 2025 triggered a "7-hour queue" purchasing frenzy in Europe and America, with the London flagship store.Daily sales exceeded 0.5 million British Pound.Even Beckham is generating traffic on INS.
Valuation Insight: Overdrafting three years of growth?
PE (price-to-earnings ratio) perspective: based on the net income for 2024,The current PE ratio of POP MART is as high as 105.45 times.(As of June 13, 2025), far higher than the global toy leader LEGO's 35 times and Sanrio's 42 times. Even according to Institutions' optimistic forecast of 7 billion yuan Net income for July 2025, the PE is around 50 times. Such a high price-to-earnings ratio means that the market has high expectations for its future performance growth...
This ‘Spirit Monster’ created by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung will contribute to POP MART in 2024.Generated revenue of 3.04 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 726.6%).It became the company's first IP. The Labubu 3.0 rubber plush series launched in April 2025 triggered a "7-hour queue" purchasing frenzy in Europe and America, with the London flagship store.Daily sales exceeded 0.5 million British Pound.Even Beckham is generating traffic on INS.
Valuation Insight: Overdrafting three years of growth?
PE (price-to-earnings ratio) perspective: based on the net income for 2024,The current PE ratio of POP MART is as high as 105.45 times.(As of June 13, 2025), far higher than the global toy leader LEGO's 35 times and Sanrio's 42 times. Even according to Institutions' optimistic forecast of 7 billion yuan Net income for July 2025, the PE is around 50 times. Such a high price-to-earnings ratio means that the market has high expectations for its future performance growth...
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