木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$
TLT 95 currently corresponds to US30Y 4.2 around
TLT 92 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.5
TLT 88 currently corresponds to US30Y 4.8 around
Forecast for year-end US10Y around 4.5
TLT 95 currently corresponds to US30Y 4.2 around
TLT 92 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.5
TLT 88 currently corresponds to US30Y 4.8 around
Forecast for year-end US10Y around 4.5
Translated
4
$USD/JPY(USDJPY.FX$
USD/JPY 158.3
USDIndex 106
Double Make More Yen $Proshares Ultra Yen(YCL.US$
Double the Empty Yen $ProShares UltraShort Yen(YCS.US$
USD/JPY 158.3
USDIndex 106
Double Make More Yen $Proshares Ultra Yen(YCL.US$
Double the Empty Yen $ProShares UltraShort Yen(YCS.US$
Translated
1
1
木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$
GDP easing inflation remains high
It seems that it is impossible to raise interest rates, but they will have to wait
STILL KEEP US10Y TO 5 TO ADD CODE
GDP easing inflation remains high
It seems that it is impossible to raise interest rates, but they will have to wait
STILL KEEP US10Y TO 5 TO ADD CODE
Translated
1
2
$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY.US$
Doing nothing with this stock is not like buying SVXY
Doing nothing with this stock is not like buying SVXY
Translated
木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF(TLTW.US$ $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$
The most important question now is whether the interest rate will fall this year. If it is not the interest rate, then the TLT will not be depleted
To discuss this topic, we need to use a very low yield rate compared to the 20-year yield, so I'm comparing it directly to 30 years, and the composition of the TLT changes over time, so it can only be compared to recent years.
2022/10/24
US30Y 4,425
TLT 87.269 (plus previous dividend current price of 91.85)
TLTW 24.70
TMF 59.236
2023/8/21
US30Y 4,474
TLT 89.894 (plus previous dividend current price of 92.23)
TLTW 26.199
TMF 54,366
2024/4/4
US30Y 4,478
TLT 92.68
TLTW 26.09
TMF 51.54
So if you're in 2022/1...
The most important question now is whether the interest rate will fall this year. If it is not the interest rate, then the TLT will not be depleted
To discuss this topic, we need to use a very low yield rate compared to the 20-year yield, so I'm comparing it directly to 30 years, and the composition of the TLT changes over time, so it can only be compared to recent years.
2022/10/24
US30Y 4,425
TLT 87.269 (plus previous dividend current price of 91.85)
TLTW 24.70
TMF 59.236
2023/8/21
US30Y 4,474
TLT 89.894 (plus previous dividend current price of 92.23)
TLTW 26.199
TMF 54,366
2024/4/4
US30Y 4,478
TLT 92.68
TLTW 26.09
TMF 51.54
So if you're in 2022/1...
Translated
2
7
木易君羊
commented on
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ Wow haha, keep taking it. 250
Translated
1
1
木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$
When buying long-term Treasury bonds, you need to think about whether you want to earn interest or spreads.
If you want to earn interest, then you keep lying down for the time being. If inflation is expected to be 2%, then the dividend rate is greater than 2, and your money will not depreciate.
If you want to make a spread, it may not be achieved this year. Given the current economic situation, the reversal of the short-term interest rate is bound to reverse. If the year-end decline is really only two digits, the 2y-10y cross is likely to be greater than 4.5. Now at 4.4% for 10 years, where else can TLT fall?
If you think the US won't go soft, now is the entry point. Think carefully that the yield curve has been upside down for more than 20 months and is down 46 points, and the yield curve is no longer a harbinger of recession?
In conclusion, buyers of long-term bonds will not lose for 20 years, unless the United States dies.
When buying long-term Treasury bonds, you need to think about whether you want to earn interest or spreads.
If you want to earn interest, then you keep lying down for the time being. If inflation is expected to be 2%, then the dividend rate is greater than 2, and your money will not depreciate.
If you want to make a spread, it may not be achieved this year. Given the current economic situation, the reversal of the short-term interest rate is bound to reverse. If the year-end decline is really only two digits, the 2y-10y cross is likely to be greater than 4.5. Now at 4.4% for 10 years, where else can TLT fall?
If you think the US won't go soft, now is the entry point. Think carefully that the yield curve has been upside down for more than 20 months and is down 46 points, and the yield curve is no longer a harbinger of recession?
In conclusion, buyers of long-term bonds will not lose for 20 years, unless the United States dies.
Translated
4
2
木易君羊
reacted to
In Q4 2023, nominal GDP grew by 3.2% according to data this morning.
This would mean a $334.5 billion increase in nominal GDP.
Meanwhile, over the same time period the US added $834.2 billion of debt.
In other words, it cost us $2.50 of debt for every $1.00 of GDP last quarter, according to Zerohedge.
As Fed Chair Powell recently said, "we are on an unsustainable fiscal path."
What's the long term plan here?
$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$
This would mean a $334.5 billion increase in nominal GDP.
Meanwhile, over the same time period the US added $834.2 billion of debt.
In other words, it cost us $2.50 of debt for every $1.00 of GDP last quarter, according to Zerohedge.
As Fed Chair Powell recently said, "we are on an unsustainable fiscal path."
What's the long term plan here?
$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$
6
1
$Tesla(TSLA.US$
Everyone here is a fortune-teller. Guess how much.
Everyone here is a fortune-teller. Guess how much.
Translated
1
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
NVDA is a good company. But its market value is third in the US and is unlikely to rise by 10% on the day.
NVDA is a good company. But its market value is third in the US and is unlikely to rise by 10% on the day.
Translated
2
木易君羊OP : The 20-year liquidity gap is generally not seen in 20 years