The January US employment report was released, showing a continued improvement in the labor market. The addition of 130,000 new non-farm jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% jointly confirm the solid foundation of the current labor market. Although most institutions predict that the US unemployment rate may rise slightly by 2026, considering the structural tightness on the supply side of the labor market, I believe that the future increase in the unemployment rate will be very limited.
This report contains several key signals in its details, which we can break down from both positive and negative aspects to understand the true trends behind the data:
1. Positive Signals: Wages and Hours Resonate, Reflecting Genuine Demand
The highlight of this month's employment data is concentrated on the income side: average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, coupled with a simultaneous increase in working hours, directly driving strong real wages, with a year-on-year increase reaching 4.3%, indicating an improvement in workers' actual income levels.
Based on past teaching experience, economics textbooks have clearly stated a core conclusion: total working hours are a high-quality leading indicator for the labor market. The logic is simple—when companies have genuine labor demands, they won't rush to create new positions but will first arrange existing employees to work overtime to meet production needs by extending working hours. From a trend perspective, the working hours data in the US shows signs of stabilization, and the increase in total working hours this month undoubtedly sends a strong signal of robust labor demand, reflecting the resilience of the labor market.
2. Key Revision: Data Downward Adjustment...

Background:
1. Traditional hawkish stance, not supportive of the Fed's large-scale QE.
2. Trend Dependence, believing that monetary policy should be more forward-looking. (This is what I consider to be the biggest difference from Powell.)
3. Supportive of interest rate cuts (has expressed dovish comments over the past year + if he didn't support rate cuts, Dong Wang wouldn't have mentioned it).
Current market consensus:
1. Believes that 'rate cuts + balance sheet reduction' defines Warsh’s core approach.
2. Speculation that Warsh’s neutral interest rate is 3%.
My thoughts:
1. A rapid shift to balance sheet reduction is unlikely (a liquidity crisis occurred in Q4 last year, and current interbank liquidity does not support a quick turn to balance sheet reduction, though it could slow down the progress and extent of re-expansion).
2. Current U.S. economic data does not support a rate hike (the labor market has frozen, with both hiring and layoffs showing little activity), leaving room for 2-3 rate cuts (overall inflation trends downward, and under Warsh’s Trend Dependence philosophy, there may be deeper rate cuts than the two expected by the market).
3. If a major economic crisis occurs in the next four years, it will be hard to expect super QE like in 2008, as Warsh has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with unlimited QE. However, when a crisis comes, QE must happen, but its scale and duration may need to be adjusted downwards.
4. In the short term, asset prices will still face risks of volatility and sharp fluctuations, and the market will be watching Warsh's statements during the transition period (this is also what he can currently prepare...

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US inflation data shows 'overall stability with cooling core'; expectations are for the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at the January 28 meeting, with the market seeing the next rate cut potentially delayed until June.
Taiwan Semiconductor reported strong Q4 2025 earnings and raised its capital expenditure plan, confirming AI as a long-term growth driver;The global AI industry continues to thrive.(Computing power, transport capacity, electric power, storage)
The US stock market is diverging, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index leading, small-cap stocks recovering, and Nasdaq lagging behind
In terms of valuation and deviation, Hong Kong stocks and Nasdaq appear relatively safe.
Bank of America's fund manager survey shows cash levels have dropped to historic lows (indicating institutions have limited firepower, making the market fragile).
By calculating the ratio of safe-haven asset prices to risky asset prices and observing deviations from the 200-day moving average, it can be seen that when the sub-chart indicator is above zero, US stock performance tends to be weaker. The market has now entered such a zone again.
Since the beginning of the year, US stocks have significantly underperformed non-US markets.
The deviation in US stocks has not reached an extreme level.
Recent changes in US stocks have been driven by earnings improvement rather than valuation expansion. Data shows that earnings contributed 12%, while valuation expansion only added 2%. Considering the recent situation, the US stock market is in the process of self-repair, and market breadth has also improved.
The US dollar has not weakened significantly, but gold has strengthened considerably.
The next uncertainty event is the Federal Reserve candidate, but currently, Warsh is unlikely to raise concerns about independence. However, gold has strengthened significantly.
In summary, the movement of gold is now difficult to comprehend.
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Received a gift and invitation from Futu ~ so happyThis weekend I'll get to meet many big names again, Yeah

Some random thoughts to share:
Ctrip has always been a company I wanted to buy but found expensive; I plan to take advantage of this downturn by continuously selling puts, hoping to get assigned shares.
Google just hit four trillion in market cap, with valuation stretched and technicals overbought. A near-term pullback is highly likely, so consider shorting calls.
At the same time, Google's momentum remains strong; I’m considering a dual-income strategy by shorting puts, but placing them further out since I don’t want to get assigned shares.
Apple’s technicals were slightly oversold last week, and I think it’s unlikely to drop further this week. Though I’d like to build a position, it’s still expensive—so I’ll sell puts instead.