技术分析就是伪科学's Profile Page

技术分析就是伪科学

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joined discussion ·Jan 23 11:55

RKLB Weekly Review

$Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$
The recent surge and pullback in RKLB has been the best trading move I’ve made since I started investing. Here’s a quick recap.
My earliest call option was purchased in August last year (Figure 1). At that time, I sold half of my shares and directly built a position with call options of equal value that expire in one year during the consolidation period. This strategy allowed me to navigate both bull and bear markets. Before the recent highs, to hedge risks, I added some sell call options (Figure 2) and created a call spread because I felt the stock had surged too aggressively. Unexpectedly, the stock price shot up near $99. During this time, the spread actually reduced my gains. However, as it surged close to $99, I decisively sold all my calls at $97 (Figure 1), given the severe overbought conditions, coupled with recent risk-averse sentiment. Although the space sector is this year's theme, a short-term pullback was necessary. At that point, my holdings consisted only of sell calls, essentially reflecting a bearish outlook. Additionally, I added a short-term put option (Figure 3). Surprisingly, there was about a 5% pullback the next day, and I quickly sold half of my position to recover the principal. The remaining half missed the high point on the second day, and I initially regretted not selling it. Given the strong rebound after each sharp decline, I thought it might not fall below $80 again. Fortunately for me, negative news about a fuel leak emerged, and the after-hours trading dropped directly to $79. However, it rebounded strongly before the market opened the next day (when options trading wasn’t possible). I believed that once trading resumed, there would likely be another wave of selling pressure. Therefore, on the third day, I placed an order to sell all my puts (Figure 4), unexpectedly selling them at the peak. Many times when buying short-term options, I encountered the issue of not selling at the high, which led to losses despite predicting the correct direction. After all, the stock market changes rapidly, and options can fluctuate significantly within minutes. After two consecutive days of observation, the buying pressure remained strong. This round of consolidation moved from $99 to $79, and although it only took three days, the adjustment was quite substantial. Thus, I successfully established a new call position near $82 (Figure 5). All in all, it was an eventful week, and my trades were mostly in line with logic, thanks to good fortune. This is my first long-form sharing, hope you all enjoy it.

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