What conditions are included in the Senate's passage of the stopgap funding bill H.R.5371 to break the filibuster?
1. The agreement will provide funding for the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress itself through September 30, 2026.
2. Other administrative agencies will receive funding until January 30.
3. Retroactive pay will be provided to government employees during the government shutdown, and federal payments withheld from states and local governments will be restored.
4. Employees dismissed during the government shutdown will be recalled, and no further voluntary layoffs will be allowed before January 30.
5. Among them, the budgets for the Ministry of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress itself will be maintained at the fiscal year 2024 level without expansion.
6. There are no additional government appropriations, such as funding for border enforcement, or financial aid packages for Ukraine and Israel.
7. The agreement temporarily avoids triggering 'sequestration,' a procedure that automatically cuts the fiscal budget after the government’s budget authorization expires. This measure has been suspended under the current agreement.
8. The Republican Party has pledged to hold a vote on extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits by mid-December.
Overall, both the Republican and Democratic parties have made compromises in this agreement, achieving a temporary political balance that facilitated the passage of the bill.
Among the developments, the Republican Party secured an opportunity to reopen the government, with key government departments resuming operations, while the Democratic Party ensured compensation for its supporters and avoided layoffs, also gaining a chance to further extend the Affordable Care Act.
Many are concerned that the U.S. government may remain shut down after the January 30 deadline...

Republican Whip John Barrasso delivered a speech. The Whip is primarily responsible for maintaining voting discipline within the party and is in charge of mobilizing and coordinating vote efforts!

Senate Republican Leader Thune, during his impassioned speech to rally votes, noted that the final vote would still need to wait!

News came quickly as the Senate directly initiated the motion to deliberate on H.R. 5371, the 'Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act,' shortly after resuming session at noon.
At this moment, senators are privately discussing, debating, and actively seeking votes, with a roll-call vote scheduled to take place later!

This official press release from the Federal Reserve brings two pieces of positive news.
1. A 25-basis-point interest rate cut in October,
2. On December 1, the Federal Reserve will end QT (Quantitative Tightening), marking the conclusion of the phase where the Fed was draining market liquidity.
The implicit positive factors also come in two points:
The support of 11 board members for an interest rate cut has contributed to the increasing expectation of a rate cut in December.
The end of QT means that the 'water' will no longer be drained from the market. Once the U.S. government resumes operations and TGA account expenditures take place, the future will see a phase of increased liquidity and gradually easing interest rates.
Ten board members supported this interest rate cut, while two members cast opposing votes.
Milan opposed the decision because he believed there should be a continued 50-basis-point rate cut this month, for reasons that are self-evident!
Jeffrey R. Schmid preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting.
The voting by these board members indicates that the majority (11 members) still favor maintaining a loose interest rate policy. This creates a positive expectation for further interest rate cuts in December!

US Senate Republican leader John Thune stated again that if the government resumes operations this week, Trump will be willing to meet with Democrats next week.
Subtext: If you want to negotiate directly with Trump, compromise on the fiscal bill first.
Clearly, regarding the government shutdown, Trump and the Republicans continue to maintain a tough stance! If the US government remains shut down next week, it will break the longest government shutdown record in US history!

Macroeconomic Focus on October 29: Under the precondition of a 'king-to-king' dynamic between China and the US, tonight's focus is on whether the Federal Reserve will pause quantitative tightening!
On Thursday of this week, the leaders of China and the United States held a meeting in South Korea, covering multiple issues including bilateral diplomatic relations, trade, and the economy. This is the key focus of the week. If the talks yield positive results, it will be excellent news for the global economy and risk markets.
I am personally concerned that Trump might 'change his attitude' once he returns home. I also believe that Trump will change his attitude; it’s just a matter of how quickly he does so.
Tonight, at the Federal Reserve's October interest rate meeting, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is currently 99%, which indicates that it is essentially a done deal. The likelihood of an unexpected outcome—either no rate cut or a 25-basis-point increase—is relatively low.
In my opinion, the main focus tonight is whether to pause QT. The current shutdown of the U.S. government and the suspension of expenditures from the TGA account have gradually impacted currency, interest rates, and financial markets. For the Federal Reserve or Powell, it is crucial to take preventive measures against future risks. If the current liquidity constraints lead to risk exposure, will Powell end QT early to ease liquidity issues? This is what I consider the key point of attention tonight.
Among the seven major U.S. stock giants, Microsoft, META, and Google released their third-quarter earnings reports. Since yesterday, multiple companies have continued to release positive developments regarding artificial intelligence, increasing future investments to boost market sentiment. NVIDIA surged yesterday and maintained significant gains in pre-market trading today. Therefore, it is expected that the earnings reports of tech stocks should perform well.
Market investors are paying attention not only to corporate earnings but also to another...

The oral arguments regarding the lawsuit against Trump's imposition of tariffs concluded on November 5 at the U.S. Supreme Court, with the final ruling expected to be announced between the end of 2025 and the first half of 2026.
If the court rules that Trump's imposition of tariffs was unlawful, refunds may be required. However, the Trump administration still has several other methods available to impose tariffs globally.
Thus, I personally hope the ruling does not declare it illegal, because once the tariffs are refunded, Trump could formulate new tariff policies that would be overly favorable to the global economy, trade systems, and financial markets. For the markets, the worst phase of tariffs has already passed, and no one wants a repeat.