Columns Operation plan after the general election and during the Chinese concept financial reporting season.
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$Under the dual stimulus of the settled election and a 25 basis point rate cut, the market rose by 5% this week to reach 21117 points, which is currently a bit high. Last week's rise was mainly driven by bank stocks, small cap stocks, semiconductors, and technology stocks, reaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. An expected short-term pullback is anticipated. Next week, the USA's CPI and PPI data will be released, with a high probability of meeting expectations and a low possibility of a market crash. The current prediction is that the current upward trend should continue until the Christmas market, but with Donald Trump's return to the White House in January next year, there may be a significant pullback in January. Therefore, during this period of policy vacuum, the US stocks are likely to experience an oscillating upward trend. In the short term, due to the crazy rise of US stocks last week, a brief pullback is expected this week, presenting a buying opportunity during the dip.
Regarding Chinese concept stocks, due to the potential policy risks since Trump took office, as well as the lackluster effect of the debt-for-equity policy announced on Friday in stimulating the stock market, leading to a 6% decline, many stocks have directly shifted trends to a downward trajectory this week. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $JD.com (JD.US)$ $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ $Sea (SE.US)$As for Chinese concept stocks, due to the potential policy risks since Trump took office, and the issuance of debt conversion policy on Friday did not have the expected stimulating effect on the stock market, resulting in a sharp 6% drop on Friday, many stocks have directly changed trends to a downward trend next week
Regarding Chinese concept stocks, due to the potential policy risks since Trump took office, as well as the lackluster effect of the debt-for-equity policy announced on Friday in stimulating the stock market, leading to a 6% decline, many stocks have directly shifted trends to a downward trajectory this week. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $JD.com (JD.US)$ $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ $Sea (SE.US)$As for Chinese concept stocks, due to the potential policy risks since Trump took office, and the issuance of debt conversion policy on Friday did not have the expected stimulating effect on the stock market, resulting in a sharp 6% drop on Friday, many stocks have directly changed trends to a downward trend next week
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I started with moomoo, officially started investing for a year, and this week I went from 0.5 million initial capital to 7 million. The moomoo community has many talented individuals. However, the official team told me a few days ago that I am an important community user among the Chinese in australia. I have been following this before. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ You can view my previous historical messages, always focusing on the few big opportunities I see within the US stock market.
Every day in the past year, I have been watching the market for several hours, knowing that diligence can bring wealth. I have no intention of stopping investing. Investing is a long-term topic, and I will continue to express opinions in the community. (Not investment advice, just for communication purposes. Adults should be responsible for their actions ☕️)
Every day in the past year, I have been watching the market for several hours, knowing that diligence can bring wealth. I have no intention of stopping investing. Investing is a long-term topic, and I will continue to express opinions in the community. (Not investment advice, just for communication purposes. Adults should be responsible for their actions ☕️)
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The pre-election polls have been fluctuating back and forth, confusing. Unexpectedly, after the voting started, the situation changed drastically, with Trump far ahead.
Looking ahead, with the situation of Donald Trump returning to the White House and the Republican Party regaining power.How will Trump's policies affect market development? What potential symbols should we shift our focus to?
1. Which stocks have I been following during the U.S. election these days?
Benefiting from positive news about the election, Trump concept stocks have also soared. Congratulations to moomoo for its convenient after-hours trading feature!Not a scam, no money taken!Watch the election voting, and then see how the stocks I bought perform, hahaha.
However, due to $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$ Recently, the trading volume surged, and the upstream temporarily suspended night trading for these two stocks. It makes me unable to escape from YINN!!!
(1) $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$
Taking advantage of the hot spots at the opening of Pennsylvania, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$The night market increase widened to 40%。Although I only caught the two waves of rallies in the middle, I am still content.
However, after the results of the US presidential election are announced, I do not believe that DJT still has long-term investment value. This media company, from operational...
Looking ahead, with the situation of Donald Trump returning to the White House and the Republican Party regaining power.How will Trump's policies affect market development? What potential symbols should we shift our focus to?
1. Which stocks have I been following during the U.S. election these days?
Benefiting from positive news about the election, Trump concept stocks have also soared. Congratulations to moomoo for its convenient after-hours trading feature!Not a scam, no money taken!Watch the election voting, and then see how the stocks I bought perform, hahaha.
However, due to $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$ Recently, the trading volume surged, and the upstream temporarily suspended night trading for these two stocks. It makes me unable to escape from YINN!!!
(1) $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$
Taking advantage of the hot spots at the opening of Pennsylvania, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$The night market increase widened to 40%。Although I only caught the two waves of rallies in the middle, I am still content.
However, after the results of the US presidential election are announced, I do not believe that DJT still has long-term investment value. This media company, from operational...
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$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ I will run as soon as the market opens, do not compete with me.
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$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Earnings call live stream is coming up! Based on the recent performance of SMCI, I have made predictions for 3 scenarios:
Best-case scenario forecast
Probability: 30%
In the best-case scenario, SMCI can successfully turn the situation around by:
1. Quickly finding and cooperating with a new auditing firm, and rebuilding market confidence through improved financial transparency.
2. Strengthening governance structure to ensure the independence and compliance of management and the board, and improving internal controls.
3. Maintaining technological innovation in AI servers and liquid cooling technology, seizing current market demand, and continuing to expand market share.
As these measures rely on internal efforts, the cooperation of external audit institutions, and the stability of market demands, the likelihood is around 30%. This probability takes into account the significant impact of the current negative news on the company, but its technological advantage in the AI and high-performance server fields may still bring the company a turnaround opportunity.
Worst-case scenario prediction
Probability: 50%
In the worst case scenario, the risks faced by SMCI are as follows:
1. Failure to effectively rectify financial and governance issues, leading to further escalation of audit issues, potentially triggering in-depth investigations by regulatory authorities and more severe financial reviews.
2. Loss of confidence from customers and investors, potentially resulting in customers switching to competitors, leading to a decrease in company revenue and market share.
3. The continuous low stock price or further decline may lead to financing difficulties, affecting future business expansion and technology...
Best-case scenario forecast
Probability: 30%
In the best-case scenario, SMCI can successfully turn the situation around by:
1. Quickly finding and cooperating with a new auditing firm, and rebuilding market confidence through improved financial transparency.
2. Strengthening governance structure to ensure the independence and compliance of management and the board, and improving internal controls.
3. Maintaining technological innovation in AI servers and liquid cooling technology, seizing current market demand, and continuing to expand market share.
As these measures rely on internal efforts, the cooperation of external audit institutions, and the stability of market demands, the likelihood is around 30%. This probability takes into account the significant impact of the current negative news on the company, but its technological advantage in the AI and high-performance server fields may still bring the company a turnaround opportunity.
Worst-case scenario prediction
Probability: 50%
In the worst case scenario, the risks faced by SMCI are as follows:
1. Failure to effectively rectify financial and governance issues, leading to further escalation of audit issues, potentially triggering in-depth investigations by regulatory authorities and more severe financial reviews.
2. Loss of confidence from customers and investors, potentially resulting in customers switching to competitors, leading to a decrease in company revenue and market share.
3. The continuous low stock price or further decline may lead to financing difficulties, affecting future business expansion and technology...
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