Super cannon
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Trump stated that the US 'destroyed' military targets on Iran's Hark Island and threatened to take tougher actions if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.
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Due to bronchitis and fever, Sun Zi was hospitalized for treatment in the past three days and thus couldn't update the market review; I hope everyone stays safe and healthy.
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
Regarding the Hang Seng Index, many almost thought Hong Kong was at the eye of this storm: the decline was even more severe than external markets and there was hardly any support. Under these circumstances, it’s almost certain that the Hang Seng Index may have already peaked in the first half of the year. As I’ve mentioned repeatedly in previous reviews, we need to constantly be cautious about the risk of the Hang Seng Index peaking. 'False breakouts lead to real breakdowns.' Given this is happening again near the 200-day line on the daily chart, based on past experience, a short-term rebound at this position is highly reasonable. $UB#HSI RC2807F.C (64691.HK)$ The defensive level is at 25,180. However, if it breaks below 25,150 or lower at any point later, be careful as this time it might truly bottom out. $UB#HSI RP2803G.P (68659.HK)$ However, it's worth noting that the index is likely transitioning from the third phase into the fourth phase.
Technology stocks remain the weakest performers, $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ As repeatedly mentioned before, extreme caution is needed for the ongoing downtrend; for now, the next support level is around 120, and a minor rebound to 132 cannot be ruled out in the ultra-short term. $UB#ALIBARC26074.C (53784.HK)$...
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
Regarding the Hang Seng Index, many almost thought Hong Kong was at the eye of this storm: the decline was even more severe than external markets and there was hardly any support. Under these circumstances, it’s almost certain that the Hang Seng Index may have already peaked in the first half of the year. As I’ve mentioned repeatedly in previous reviews, we need to constantly be cautious about the risk of the Hang Seng Index peaking. 'False breakouts lead to real breakdowns.' Given this is happening again near the 200-day line on the daily chart, based on past experience, a short-term rebound at this position is highly reasonable. $UB#HSI RC2807F.C (64691.HK)$ The defensive level is at 25,180. However, if it breaks below 25,150 or lower at any point later, be careful as this time it might truly bottom out. $UB#HSI RP2803G.P (68659.HK)$ However, it's worth noting that the index is likely transitioning from the third phase into the fourth phase.
Technology stocks remain the weakest performers, $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ As repeatedly mentioned before, extreme caution is needed for the ongoing downtrend; for now, the next support level is around 120, and a minor rebound to 132 cannot be ruled out in the ultra-short term. $UB#ALIBARC26074.C (53784.HK)$...
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$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ Is anyone still trading now
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$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ good day my brother and sister from another mother
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$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ The upward movement is as slow as a snail, while the downward movement feels like jumping off a building.
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Iran-US-Israel conflict
In a nutshell: Trump wants to withdraw gracefully while protecting his financial interests, whereas Netanyahu aims to dismantle Tehran's core capabilities with the help of the US military.
……………
Core Conflict: The Rift Triggered by the March 8 Airstrike
Israel's 'excessive' bombing of 30 Iranian fuel facilities has directly ignited tensions between the US and Israel.
United States (Trump): Strongly opposed. Worried that a spike in oil prices could impact election prospects, believing attacks on civilian infrastructure would backfire by uniting the Iranian populace.
Israel (Netanyahu): Deemed essential. Views the current situation as a 'historic window' to completely dismantle the Iranian regime, insisting on striking with 'full force' to eliminate future threats.
Strategic Divide: Quick Resolution vs. Full Exploitation of Momentum
The two nations have fundamentally different visions for the endgame of the conflict:
• The US pursues 'political cost-effectiveness': Trump wants to appear tough but fears prolonged warfare. He hinted that the US holds the 'final decision-making power,' aiming to reach an agreement quickly and stabilize energy markets.
• Israel's pursuit of 'survival security': Netanyahu rejects 'quitting while ahead,' advocating for regime change in Iran through intense strikes, and even plans to 'hunt down' successors.
Current state of play: The game between the commander and the forward
• Power tension: The US considers itself the 'commander-in-chief,' but Israel, as the 'frontline state,' often forces Washington's endorsement by creating established facts.
• Iranian retaliation: Tehran accurately exploits the cracks between the US and Israel, threatening global oil prices with 'retaliatory attacks on regional energy facilities' in an effort to increase the economic cost for the US to continue the war.
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In a nutshell: Trump wants to withdraw gracefully while protecting his financial interests, whereas Netanyahu aims to dismantle Tehran's core capabilities with the help of the US military.
……………
Core Conflict: The Rift Triggered by the March 8 Airstrike
Israel's 'excessive' bombing of 30 Iranian fuel facilities has directly ignited tensions between the US and Israel.
United States (Trump): Strongly opposed. Worried that a spike in oil prices could impact election prospects, believing attacks on civilian infrastructure would backfire by uniting the Iranian populace.
Israel (Netanyahu): Deemed essential. Views the current situation as a 'historic window' to completely dismantle the Iranian regime, insisting on striking with 'full force' to eliminate future threats.
Strategic Divide: Quick Resolution vs. Full Exploitation of Momentum
The two nations have fundamentally different visions for the endgame of the conflict:
• The US pursues 'political cost-effectiveness': Trump wants to appear tough but fears prolonged warfare. He hinted that the US holds the 'final decision-making power,' aiming to reach an agreement quickly and stabilize energy markets.
• Israel's pursuit of 'survival security': Netanyahu rejects 'quitting while ahead,' advocating for regime change in Iran through intense strikes, and even plans to 'hunt down' successors.
Current state of play: The game between the commander and the forward
• Power tension: The US considers itself the 'commander-in-chief,' but Israel, as the 'frontline state,' often forces Washington's endorsement by creating established facts.
• Iranian retaliation: Tehran accurately exploits the cracks between the US and Israel, threatening global oil prices with 'retaliatory attacks on regional energy facilities' in an effort to increase the economic cost for the US to continue the war.
Please follow my Facebook...
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