仏熊苦
commented on
If only it were with real money, we could get audited certification and that would be interesting, but it’s a shame it's virtual.
I don’t usually do options at all, but when I tried, I saw that in one situation you can get returns of around 90%. Using just 0.6% of my capital, it contributed to a 10% increase in my assets. No wonder some people get hooked.
But in real trading, there is no need for options; there’s no reason to increase complexity.
Standard long position on Optical Communications and short on Para.
In real trading, I've already exited my long positions, and I don't take individual shorts. (I do trade indices occasionally.)
Though I haven’t made this much in real life, since the demo involves no risk, this kind of thing becomes possible.
Demo and real trading are different.
Even if I have a certain level of confidence, I avoid high-risk opportunities. It’s better not to bet big.
It's a game where the premise is to minimize the reduction of assets while capturing asymmetric opportunities.
There might be fun periods when you're not trading; I'm currently testing new observation techniques, together with Chappy.
I don’t usually do options at all, but when I tried, I saw that in one situation you can get returns of around 90%. Using just 0.6% of my capital, it contributed to a 10% increase in my assets. No wonder some people get hooked.
But in real trading, there is no need for options; there’s no reason to increase complexity.
Standard long position on Optical Communications and short on Para.
In real trading, I've already exited my long positions, and I don't take individual shorts. (I do trade indices occasionally.)
Though I haven’t made this much in real life, since the demo involves no risk, this kind of thing becomes possible.
Demo and real trading are different.
Even if I have a certain level of confidence, I avoid high-risk opportunities. It’s better not to bet big.
It's a game where the premise is to minimize the reduction of assets while capturing asymmetric opportunities.
There might be fun periods when you're not trading; I'm currently testing new observation techniques, together with Chappy.
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1
Chappy and I have recently been working on something called the 'Market Dissection New Book'.
In that context,
the Turnaround Model can be classified into
A Capital Structure Turnaround (Risk of bankruptcy/dilution → Cash flow resolved)
B Operational Turnaround (Loss-making structure → Improved unit economics)
C Supply/Demand and Valuation Turnaround (Selling pressure/Short selling/Panic selling → Reversal in supply/demand)
D Regulatory/Contractual Turnaround (Regulatory/contractual cliff → Removal/Renewal)
These are divided into four types.
In the case of Hims, it starts with D, then A. Next is B, but if the core business itself changes, the way we evaluate the company from before will also change.
What you need to understand is that although it's already considered a 'turnaround,' this is one of the more difficult types of turnarounds because of its high external dependence—conditions for avoiding collapse have been clearly met, yet a phase transition toward recovery has been slow to occur.
If you’ve been holding shares in what you thought was a growth company and are now following popular stocks, I recommend starting by revising your understanding of that aspect.
$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$
The following is quoted by Chappy.
Hims is 'the oral version of Wegovy...'
In that context,
the Turnaround Model can be classified into
A Capital Structure Turnaround (Risk of bankruptcy/dilution → Cash flow resolved)
B Operational Turnaround (Loss-making structure → Improved unit economics)
C Supply/Demand and Valuation Turnaround (Selling pressure/Short selling/Panic selling → Reversal in supply/demand)
D Regulatory/Contractual Turnaround (Regulatory/contractual cliff → Removal/Renewal)
These are divided into four types.
In the case of Hims, it starts with D, then A. Next is B, but if the core business itself changes, the way we evaluate the company from before will also change.
What you need to understand is that although it's already considered a 'turnaround,' this is one of the more difficult types of turnarounds because of its high external dependence—conditions for avoiding collapse have been clearly met, yet a phase transition toward recovery has been slow to occur.
If you’ve been holding shares in what you thought was a growth company and are now following popular stocks, I recommend starting by revising your understanding of that aspect.
$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$
The following is quoted by Chappy.
Hims is 'the oral version of Wegovy...'
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2
仏熊苦
commented on
$IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$
Since the end of the year, I've been taking actions like buying IREN or selling options in demo accounts, prompting some to ask, 'What’s your position?'
What is that all about? Are you a day trader who follows price movement trends or something? ... I doubt anyone has that question.
I don’t think so, but let me go ahead and explain anyway.
Role theory is closely related here.
IREN has two major themes: data centers (DC) and cryptocurrency.
Think of it like Fire and Water in Pokémon.
Additionally, since they can secure their own power supply, they don’t have the key vulnerability that other DCs are most likely to face.
In terms of contract acquisition, they’ve already secured a major player like Microsoft (MS).
It's relatively strong within DC.
Initially, at the start of the year, I assumed things like this.
• This year marks the implementation year for asset tokenization and cryptocurrency payment infrastructure as a settlement method for AI agents, so cryptocurrencies will likely rise in tandem.
• Eventually, the use of AI will expand into physical AI applications, so DC demand will ultimately not stop. Revenue explosions with initial deficits will likely be reevaluated.
IRE...
Since the end of the year, I've been taking actions like buying IREN or selling options in demo accounts, prompting some to ask, 'What’s your position?'
What is that all about? Are you a day trader who follows price movement trends or something? ... I doubt anyone has that question.
I don’t think so, but let me go ahead and explain anyway.
Role theory is closely related here.
IREN has two major themes: data centers (DC) and cryptocurrency.
Think of it like Fire and Water in Pokémon.
Additionally, since they can secure their own power supply, they don’t have the key vulnerability that other DCs are most likely to face.
In terms of contract acquisition, they’ve already secured a major player like Microsoft (MS).
It's relatively strong within DC.
Initially, at the start of the year, I assumed things like this.
• This year marks the implementation year for asset tokenization and cryptocurrency payment infrastructure as a settlement method for AI agents, so cryptocurrencies will likely rise in tandem.
• Eventually, the use of AI will expand into physical AI applications, so DC demand will ultimately not stop. Revenue explosions with initial deficits will likely be reevaluated.
IRE...
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仏熊苦
commented on
仏熊苦
commented on
$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$
OEM, right?
A real turnaround
Well, forming an alliance against Eli Lilly was definitely an option
Good thinking, coming up with that from a seemingly hopeless situation
OEM, right?
A real turnaround
Well, forming an alliance against Eli Lilly was definitely an option
Good thinking, coming up with that from a seemingly hopeless situation
Translated
$Credo Technology (CRDO.US)$
you're going to die.
you're going to die.
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6
$Rubrik (RBRK.US)$
Although it had already collapsed, so it's a bit tricky, there is still potential. However, it also depends on the market sentiment regarding tech selling, so it might be better to check the flow of funds first
Although it had already collapsed, so it's a bit tricky, there is still potential. However, it also depends on the market sentiment regarding tech selling, so it might be better to check the flow of funds first
Translated
1
仏熊苦
commented on
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仏熊苦 OP : LITE is a constraint player within the value chain, so the story is compelling.
It feels like they're a step ahead in the repositioning after the crash.
Lately, 'Chappy' language is starting to stick. I've been working on theory refinement and writing for about 10 hours a day.