仏熊苦
commented on
I'll extract the immediately useful book sections and turn them into a column.
If you're unsure about what's happening in the market every day, give this a read.
In fact, it can be explained using three timeframes (minute/ daily/ weekly charts) and four key concepts.
■ Introduction: The candlestick chart you’re looking at is a “record of battles.”
The market isn’t a gentle place.
Every day, similar price struggles repeat around the same levels.
Moreover, what’s happening there can actually be expressed in four words.
“Initiative,” “Absorption,” “Distribution,” and “Addition.”
Once you start imagining these four words as a battlefield for territorial control,
the 'shape' of the chart suddenly transforms into a 'log of battles.'
Today, I will turn that into a story organized by different timeframes.
Minute chart = Trench warfare. Daily chart = Struggle for hills. Weekly chart = National warfare.
Even though the candlesticks look the same, the groups fighting are different.
■The minute chart battle: The fight over 'trench lines' decided in minutes
Cast of characters (participating entities)
・High-speed scouts (HFT/Scalpers)
・Supply officers (Market makers: maintaining the battlefield with order books and spreads)
・Squad leaders (Day traders)
・Artillery (0DTE/Short-term options forces...)
If you're unsure about what's happening in the market every day, give this a read.
In fact, it can be explained using three timeframes (minute/ daily/ weekly charts) and four key concepts.
■ Introduction: The candlestick chart you’re looking at is a “record of battles.”
The market isn’t a gentle place.
Every day, similar price struggles repeat around the same levels.
Moreover, what’s happening there can actually be expressed in four words.
“Initiative,” “Absorption,” “Distribution,” and “Addition.”
Once you start imagining these four words as a battlefield for territorial control,
the 'shape' of the chart suddenly transforms into a 'log of battles.'
Today, I will turn that into a story organized by different timeframes.
Minute chart = Trench warfare. Daily chart = Struggle for hills. Weekly chart = National warfare.
Even though the candlesticks look the same, the groups fighting are different.
■The minute chart battle: The fight over 'trench lines' decided in minutes
Cast of characters (participating entities)
・High-speed scouts (HFT/Scalpers)
・Supply officers (Market makers: maintaining the battlefield with order books and spreads)
・Squad leaders (Day traders)
・Artillery (0DTE/Short-term options forces...)
Translated
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仏熊苦
commented on
仏熊苦
commented on
1. What I've been doing recently
In writing the book, I’ve abstracted the concepts in my mind and universalized them into a methodology.
This is the theoretical background of why an edge is created, along with a list of patterns.
Looking back, I realize I was writing quite superficially on MooMoo — somewhat regrettable, but I guess that’s fine too.
Upon verification, I found that the patterns I’m using have theoretically significant edges.
It’s still a period where profits can be made, though it’s expected to get increasingly difficult over the next five years.
2. Observation results
Almost all short-term traders I met on MooMoo are losing badly.
This is inevitable. If you trade based on emotions, operate in areas without an edge, don't set stop-loss orders, and use leverage, it’s easy to get wiped out. It's just common sense.
3. Conclusion
So, I’m creating a catalog of edges (mainly for day trading), training myself to make these kinds of judgments instantly.
Even if, after several years, you become a better time-frame warrior than me...
Compared to algo × AI, there is extremely limited information available for making real-time decisions.
Compared to algo × AI, the reaction is incredibly...
In writing the book, I’ve abstracted the concepts in my mind and universalized them into a methodology.
This is the theoretical background of why an edge is created, along with a list of patterns.
Looking back, I realize I was writing quite superficially on MooMoo — somewhat regrettable, but I guess that’s fine too.
Upon verification, I found that the patterns I’m using have theoretically significant edges.
It’s still a period where profits can be made, though it’s expected to get increasingly difficult over the next five years.
2. Observation results
Almost all short-term traders I met on MooMoo are losing badly.
This is inevitable. If you trade based on emotions, operate in areas without an edge, don't set stop-loss orders, and use leverage, it’s easy to get wiped out. It's just common sense.
3. Conclusion
So, I’m creating a catalog of edges (mainly for day trading), training myself to make these kinds of judgments instantly.
Even if, after several years, you become a better time-frame warrior than me...
Compared to algo × AI, there is extremely limited information available for making real-time decisions.
Compared to algo × AI, the reaction is incredibly...
Translated
6
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仏熊苦
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$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
Around 67,200 yen, which is the 3/5 retracement level from 60,000 to 72,000, is a concentrated stop-loss zone where rebounds, absorption, or breakouts are typically observed.
It has just broken through that level for the first time.
If it doesn’t continue to grind lower, that would negate weakness; if it keeps dropping, there’s no edge.
If strength is confirmed, it's a good entry point.
There are two patterns: a short-term reversal after stops are triggered, and a sideways movement leading to drying up volume—both offer potential opportunities.
For trading, it’s okay to confirm first; currently, both scenarios could present themselves.
Around 67,200 yen, which is the 3/5 retracement level from 60,000 to 72,000, is a concentrated stop-loss zone where rebounds, absorption, or breakouts are typically observed.
It has just broken through that level for the first time.
If it doesn’t continue to grind lower, that would negate weakness; if it keeps dropping, there’s no edge.
If strength is confirmed, it's a good entry point.
There are two patterns: a short-term reversal after stops are triggered, and a sideways movement leading to drying up volume—both offer potential opportunities.
For trading, it’s okay to confirm first; currently, both scenarios could present themselves.
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仏熊苦
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If only it were with real money, we could get audited certification and that would be interesting, but it’s a shame it's virtual.
I don’t usually do options at all, but when I tried, I saw that in one situation you can get returns of around 90%. Using just 0.6% of my capital, it contributed to a 10% increase in my assets. No wonder some people get hooked.
But in real trading, there is no need for options; there’s no reason to increase complexity.
Standard long position on Optical Communications and short on Para.
In real trading, I've already exited my long positions, and I don't take individual shorts. (I do trade indices occasionally.)
Though I haven’t made this much in real life, since the demo involves no risk, this kind of thing becomes possible.
Demo and real trading are different.
Even if I have a certain level of confidence, I avoid high-risk opportunities. It’s better not to bet big.
It's a game where the premise is to minimize the reduction of assets while capturing asymmetric opportunities.
There might be fun periods when you're not trading; I'm currently testing new observation techniques, together with Chappy.
I don’t usually do options at all, but when I tried, I saw that in one situation you can get returns of around 90%. Using just 0.6% of my capital, it contributed to a 10% increase in my assets. No wonder some people get hooked.
But in real trading, there is no need for options; there’s no reason to increase complexity.
Standard long position on Optical Communications and short on Para.
In real trading, I've already exited my long positions, and I don't take individual shorts. (I do trade indices occasionally.)
Though I haven’t made this much in real life, since the demo involves no risk, this kind of thing becomes possible.
Demo and real trading are different.
Even if I have a certain level of confidence, I avoid high-risk opportunities. It’s better not to bet big.
It's a game where the premise is to minimize the reduction of assets while capturing asymmetric opportunities.
There might be fun periods when you're not trading; I'm currently testing new observation techniques, together with Chappy.
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Chappy and I have recently been working on something called the 'Market Dissection New Book'.
In that context,
the Turnaround Model can be classified into
A Capital Structure Turnaround (Risk of bankruptcy/dilution → Cash flow resolved)
B Operational Turnaround (Loss-making structure → Improved unit economics)
C Supply/Demand and Valuation Turnaround (Selling pressure/Short selling/Panic selling → Reversal in supply/demand)
D Regulatory/Contractual Turnaround (Regulatory/contractual cliff → Removal/Renewal)
These are divided into four types.
In the case of Hims, it starts with D, then A. Next is B, but if the core business itself changes, the way we evaluate the company from before will also change.
What you need to understand is that although it's already considered a 'turnaround,' this is one of the more difficult types of turnarounds because of its high external dependence—conditions for avoiding collapse have been clearly met, yet a phase transition toward recovery has been slow to occur.
If you’ve been holding shares in what you thought was a growth company and are now following popular stocks, I recommend starting by revising your understanding of that aspect.
$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$
The following is quoted by Chappy.
Hims is 'the oral version of Wegovy...'
In that context,
the Turnaround Model can be classified into
A Capital Structure Turnaround (Risk of bankruptcy/dilution → Cash flow resolved)
B Operational Turnaround (Loss-making structure → Improved unit economics)
C Supply/Demand and Valuation Turnaround (Selling pressure/Short selling/Panic selling → Reversal in supply/demand)
D Regulatory/Contractual Turnaround (Regulatory/contractual cliff → Removal/Renewal)
These are divided into four types.
In the case of Hims, it starts with D, then A. Next is B, but if the core business itself changes, the way we evaluate the company from before will also change.
What you need to understand is that although it's already considered a 'turnaround,' this is one of the more difficult types of turnarounds because of its high external dependence—conditions for avoiding collapse have been clearly met, yet a phase transition toward recovery has been slow to occur.
If you’ve been holding shares in what you thought was a growth company and are now following popular stocks, I recommend starting by revising your understanding of that aspect.
$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$
The following is quoted by Chappy.
Hims is 'the oral version of Wegovy...'
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3
仏熊苦
commented on
$IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$
Since the end of the year, I've been taking actions like buying IREN or selling options in demo accounts, prompting some to ask, 'What’s your position?'
What is that all about? Are you a day trader who follows price movement trends or something? ... I doubt anyone has that question.
I don’t think so, but let me go ahead and explain anyway.
Role theory is closely related here.
IREN has two major themes: data centers (DC) and cryptocurrency.
Think of it like Fire and Water in Pokémon.
Additionally, since they can secure their own power supply, they don’t have the key vulnerability that other DCs are most likely to face.
In terms of contract acquisition, they’ve already secured a major player like Microsoft (MS).
It's relatively strong within DC.
Initially, at the start of the year, I assumed things like this.
• This year marks the implementation year for asset tokenization and cryptocurrency payment infrastructure as a settlement method for AI agents, so cryptocurrencies will likely rise in tandem.
• Eventually, the use of AI will expand into physical AI applications, so DC demand will ultimately not stop. Revenue explosions with initial deficits will likely be reevaluated.
IRE...
Since the end of the year, I've been taking actions like buying IREN or selling options in demo accounts, prompting some to ask, 'What’s your position?'
What is that all about? Are you a day trader who follows price movement trends or something? ... I doubt anyone has that question.
I don’t think so, but let me go ahead and explain anyway.
Role theory is closely related here.
IREN has two major themes: data centers (DC) and cryptocurrency.
Think of it like Fire and Water in Pokémon.
Additionally, since they can secure their own power supply, they don’t have the key vulnerability that other DCs are most likely to face.
In terms of contract acquisition, they’ve already secured a major player like Microsoft (MS).
It's relatively strong within DC.
Initially, at the start of the year, I assumed things like this.
• This year marks the implementation year for asset tokenization and cryptocurrency payment infrastructure as a settlement method for AI agents, so cryptocurrencies will likely rise in tandem.
• Eventually, the use of AI will expand into physical AI applications, so DC demand will ultimately not stop. Revenue explosions with initial deficits will likely be reevaluated.
IRE...
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仏熊苦
commented on
仏熊苦
commented on
![[empty]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/folder.5c37692712.png)
![[error]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/no-network.991ae8055c.png)
![[loading]](data:image/svg+xml;base64,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)
仏熊苦 OP : Addition (4-word summary)
Initiative
The market isn’t about “direction.” The side that seizes control over “common sense” wins.
Will prices rise when pressed down, or rebound even after selling? It’s the power to define the rules of that world.
Absorption
Absorption is like stacking sandbags. It absorbs the bullets (buying and selling) and stabilizes the position (price level).
Absorbing at lower levels means defense; absorbing higher up signals preparation for a breakout. The less movement, the more intense the internal battle becomes.
Addition
Addition isn’t a reckless charge. It’s reinforcements in a winning battle.
Only after gaining the initiative and settling absorption does addition become an advance that extends the front line.
Distribution
Distribution isn’t the sound of collapse. It’s the footstep of transition.
The strong aren’t extending — right there, the vanguard quietly hands over inventory and withdraws.
仏熊苦 OP 仏熊苦 OP : Not all wars are driven strongly by 'leadership.' Misunderstanding this point can lead to the belief that all market movements are manipulated by a central figure or conspiracy theories. Even if multiple players overlap, it's possible to interpret them as 'overall leadership,' which makes this concept effective. Skilled traders, particularly those with a track record and experience, often use abstract expressions like 'Hmm, the wind direction has changed' to describe market conditions, and they tend to be accurate. From a neuroscience perspective, their observations are processed through past experiences as compressed information, leading to intuitive conclusions—a phenomenon known as chunking—and such language outputs seem to stem from this.
When you decompress (reverse the compression) and verbalize these insights, they turn into actionable conditions. Since I haven't yet reached the level of mastery, I practice what I call 'confirmation investing.' I verify the conditions, and if the expected value seems high, I set the maximum loss upfront and proceed. Therefore, I can generally reduce it to a template. Among the concepts that emerge within these conditions are leadership/control, absorption, addition, and distribution.