The labor market is beginning to show signs of deceleration as interest rate cuts begin to begin.
The four-week moving average of the number of new US unemployment insurance claims has risen to 207,750, and it has recorded a significant increase since November last year.
The Federal Reserve faces the risk of leading to an unnecessary recession due to delays in the start of interest rate cuts.
However, considering that long-term bonds are being bought due to concerns about a recession, this is a tailwind for the stock market.

I think the 2020s will shift from the era of large stocks to the era of small-cap stocks.
However, since small-cap stocks are different from large stocks, and buy and hold strategies are difficult to apply, I think investment skills will be required more than ever.
So I wrote “The Secret of Buffett Taro Ryūmai Small Growth Stock Investment,” so please read it if you like.
Please see ↓ here ↓ for report grant conditions, etc.

NVIDIA (NVDA) has announced financial results for the third quarter (fiscal year ending October).
EPS had a result of $4.02 against the $3.39 forecast.
Sales were $18.12 billion against the forecast of $16.11 billion.
The sales growth rate was 206% higher than the same period last year.
As for the guidance, the sales forecast for the fourth quarter was announced, and new guidance of $20 billion was announced compared to the forecast of 17.82 billion dollars.
Financial results exceeded consensus expectations, but since it was shown that sales to China in the fourth quarter would “decline significantly,” it fell 1.5% due to overtime trading.

I'm paying attention to whether gold can break out above the trend line of the downtrend channel

Currently, we have almost made a full investment. The breakdown is like 59% for emerging and developing countries, 39% for US stocks, and 2% for Bitcoin.
Although there is still a possibility that the S&P 500 will fall in the short term, it is unlikely that it will drop significantly from here on out.
More than that, considering that there is a possibility that US stocks will rise significantly every year from fall to the end of the year, I think not having sufficient positions would be a risk.

The long-term interest rate was 4.5% for the first time in 16 years. I think the S&P 500 will drop by about 10% from the high price in July. The bottom is expected to hit in October.

Ahead of the FOMC next week, the S&P 500 once again broke the 50-day moving average in response to an increase in long-term interest rates. (The monthly gain/fall rate for September is currently 1.3% lower)
The UAW (Auto Workers Union) strike has led to concerns about inflation.
I think the adjustment phase from summer to fall will begin in earnest next week.

Until now, no one has been able to buy energy stock ETFs since a recession has been seen as certain, but now that the possibility of a soft landing is increasing, it is easier to be bought due to the reaction.
Crude oil supply and demand is also tight globally, and I think it will rise further in the future.

It is said that SBG will lower the valuation value of ARM from 64 billion dollars a month ago to 50 to 60 billion dollars.
It's supposed to ride on the AI boom, but if the value drops by 20% in just 1 month, isn't the AI boom also coming to an end?