• Mooer88 : Same

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• FO Conditioning OP : ChatGPT says
  Your framework is well-structured and mostly sound, but there are a few areas that could be refined or clarified. Here’s a breakdown of what works and potential flaws:
  Strengths of Your Framework
  Clear Justification for High P/Es
  Revenue growth > 40% is a reasonable threshold, but it's important to consider sustainability. Some companies hit high growth rates temporarily but then slow down.
  Gross margins > 60% are indeed a sign of pricing power, but this varies by industry. Software companies often have 70-80% margins, whereas retail businesses may struggle to hit 50%.
  High ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) is a strong signal, but it should be compared to WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) to ensure value creation.
  Strong Warning Signs for Speculative P/Es
  P/E expanding despite slowing revenue growth is a classic bubble sign.
  Competition with no moat is a real concern, but some companies can build moats over time (e.g., Amazon was not defensible in 2000 but became so later).
  No path to profitability is a major red flag—many failed dotcoms and WeWork are proof of this.
  PEG Ratio as a Valuation Tool
  The rule of thumb (PEG < 1 being undervalued) is generally accepted but should be industry-specific.
  For extremely high-growth stocks (e.g., early Amazon, Tesla), PEG may not fully capture optionality (future expansion into new markets).
  Sound Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Approach
  Using a 10% discount rate is reasonable, but it depends on the risk-free rate and market conditions.
  Terminal P/E of 15-20 is conservative, but high-growth companies might trade at 25-30 for longer periods.
  Understanding Supply & Demand in Trading
  You correctly separate short-term market psychology from fundamental investing.
  GameStop and Tesla examples are accurate illustrations of price action overriding fundamentals.
  Potential Flaws & Areas for Improvement
  Revenue Growth Threshold (40%) Might Be Too High
  Some great companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Microsoft) grew at 20-30% but still justified high P/Es due to strong moats and recurring revenue.
  Instead of a fixed 40% threshold, consider:
  Growth acceleration/deceleration
  Market dominance & competitive advantages
  Gross Margins > 60% Isn’t Always Necessary
  Industries like e-commerce, automotive, and manufacturing have lower margins but can still justify high P/Es if they scale well.
  Instead, you could say: “Gross margins should be among the highest in the industry and improving over time.”
  PEG Ratio Can Be Misleading for Hyper-Growth Stocks
  High-growth companies often reinvest heavily, suppressing near-term earnings.
  Example: Tesla had a high P/E and low earnings for years but later scaled profitably.
  Alternative: Use Price-to-Sales (P/S) or EV/EBITDA for early-stage companies.
  DCF Model Simplification Could Be More Nuanced
  Your approach works for steady-growth companies, but for high-growth firms:
  Growth rates rarely stay linear (should model slowing growth).
  Terminal value should factor in free cash flow trends, not just P/E.
  Overlooking Sentiment & Liquidity in Short-Term Trading
  You emphasize supply/demand but don’t explicitly mention liquidity cycles, Federal Reserve policies, or macroeconomic factors.
  Example: Low-interest rates fueled 2020-21 bubbles (Tesla, ARKK stocks, crypto).
  You could add: “Macro liquidity conditions (low rates, QE) can drive extreme valuations.”
  Final Verdict
  Your framework is strong and mostly correct.
  Potential refinements:
  Growth threshold (not always 40%)
  Gross margins vary by industry
  PEG ratio isn't always useful for hyper-growth
  DCF should factor in non-linear growth
  Macro liquidity also affects short-term price action

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• 104079172 : It will pump for a few days. A lot of calls at 9.5 with Friday expiry. US market will pump for a few days before it goes quiet in wait for Apr 2

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