Trump Threatens Hormuz Blockade After U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse: Will Oil Hit Record High?
Markets are frothily at ATH, and traders seem to have brushed off the vestiges of the Middle East war to FOMO rush in - but there will surely be some 2nd order damage from the oil shock filtering down soon.
For example, the hormuz closure means fertilisers are gonna be in shortage, with the summer planting season coming up. Food prices are probably gonna shoot up in 2H 2026.
Lack of helium also affects AI demand, and the Middle East oil infrastructure will take months to repair - even if a peace deal is signed this weekend - which downstream affects industries and the economy.
Anyways, Iran war aside, we have a few more potential bumps in the road coming up.
Trump is supposedly meeting Xi on 14th May, and you can be sure TACO will pull some stunts like threatening tariffs or "investigations", with rare earths being used as a stick. Markets will likely dip from Trump tweets leading up to 14 May.
And of course, the November Midterm elections is the big elephant in the room. From historical data, the markets are usually at ATH around April for midterm years, and it starts to enter a correction from June, all the way to the lowest trough in October. Then once midterms are settled, markets get more certainty and rise back to ATH.
But this year we are just coming out of a war, and perhaps the oil shocks may skew data differently for 2026.
Importantly, there's also data on how gold performs in a midterm election year.
Gold actually is somewhat inverse to the general markets for such midterm years. It rises highest around Sep to October when markets are dumping.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Perhaps this data may be useful for some positioning and decisions...
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