Where will the bottom of TLT be?
TLT continues to plummet 📉
In the short term, the sprint may accelerate to catch up, and there is likely to be a wave of rebound thereafter. But a rebound isn't necessarily a reversal.
Currently, I plan to enter the market in batches. Generally speaking, for every 10% drop, I will increase my position by 10%. Buy at roughly 85, 80, 75, and 70 price layouts.
Will tlt drop to 70? Nothing is impossible. I don't know if anyone has read the article where Bill Ackman sings empty bonds. Currently, he is on the right track. I think his estimated long-term interest rate of 5.5% should be the bottom line for TLT, and the price corresponding to TTL is probably around 70.
Whether it will actually be that low, no one knows. However, I think even if the peak value of long-term bonds reaches 5.5%, it will not be possible to maintain it. Interest rates will be cut later, and tlt will rebound. Dividends for the period were not good enough, but they were also there. However, to trade, you must be able to withstand the worst results. When the darkness before dawn falls, you won't be able to see the dawn.
I have opposed the purchase many times $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$ Currently, I am still against it. If TLT falls to 70, then TMF will have to cut back again, dropping to more than two yuan. And there's no dividend. That would be really hehehe.
However, if 10-year treasury bonds reach 5.5%, then what will happen to the stock market? The risk-free return is 5.5%, and the corresponding PE level is 18 times. In other words, the upper limit of the stock market has become 18 times PE, then the lower limit is about 15 times PE. Assuming that the EPS of the S&P 500 is 220, 15-17 times is 3,300-3,700 points. It's also hehehe. Once it falls below 3500, then it actually climbs out of the monthly level m peak![]()
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Let's hope this horrible thing doesn't happen. Long-term interest rates must never reach 5.5%.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为富图系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。㊗️大家越来越🐮
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王婧彤0722 : In the current market I feel in the US, the Fed will raise interest rates at least one more time. Why? I have missed several interest rate hikes in a row, and I have clearly felt the rise in prices
! I hope the Fed will not only refer to official data, but also substantially see the current economic situation in the market, so if the unemployment rate remains constant, it will also raise interest rates once or twice in order to mitigate price increases; in my humble opinion, it probably won't even consider cutting interest rates until June next year - it just depends on the circumstances, whether interest rates will be raised or not, and not cut interest rates.
高贵的阿德莱德OP 王婧彤0722: Agree, I can't even drink Cola right now; it's scary that it's expensive. If interest rates are raised to 6% and only cut in 2025, then long-term interest rates may actually reach 5.5%. At that time, stocks and bonds will collapse, and real estate may also collapse. 2024 is likely to be a year where cash is king.
Ringo想买包 : Just buy it, it's dark before dawn, uh, unplug the cable and wait for Happy New Year
高贵的阿德莱德OP Ringo想买包: Well, I avoided chasing ups and downs
王婧彤0722 高贵的阿德莱德OP: So your guess is that the Fed won't just push the market in the direction of collapse? Will interest rates be cut as a last resort to avoid the risk of collapse as much as possible? Can I understand it that way?
高贵的阿德莱德OP 王婧彤0722: Lao Bao doesn't necessarily have to worry about how the market is going, but he must finance the Ministry of Finance's huge interest expenses. Moreover, if it continues like this, banks will inevitably go bankrupt again. Look at the trend of financial stocks; they have already begun to calculate this. Moreover, the general election is coming soon, and it's not easy to explain the mess.
decisive Beaver_4398 : As long as don’t over leverage on Tlt like Tmf . Just buy slowly at different stage . It might go over longer and higher . It’s not just economy . It might be financial war .
mubbiiee : I made the same inference. This still assumes that S&P EPS remains the same. EPS will definitely decrease at high interest rates when burning goose, which means Davis will double kill. Well, it's very reasonable to work until 3000.. It made me really want to empty qqq
高贵的阿德莱德OP mubbiiee: Will it be good to go short again next year
王婧彤0722 高贵的阿德莱德OP: As soon as you say this, my pattern instantly opens up, and I'm thrilled.