When will the US-Iran conflict come to a complete end? How can the market return to normal?

Inside story of the plan to assassinate Khamenei: Israel hacked into cameras, and the US provided final confirmation.

How far will the conflict spread? A breakdown of the demands and capabilities of all involved parties:

Despite Trump's claim on Monday evening that the war would end soon,which the market interpreted as a signal that Trump was about to take action, leading to a rapid rebound. However, after oil retraced to the five-day line, and given the ongoing intensity of conflicts in the Iranian region and with Israel, Brent crude rebounded and returned to the $100 mark, causing market fluctuations to expand and profitability to significantly decline.

Will the war end quickly as Trump suggested? No,because, firstly, the US made the foolish decision to assassinate a religious leader, which will provoke a backlash across the entire Shiite Islamic world, and the rise of Mujtaba, a hardliner. The younger Khamenei, who was originally the leader of the Supreme Leader’s political office and joined the Revolutionary Guard in his youth, has strong political roots within Iran’s religious circles. Thus, it could be said that Israel's overly 'pragmatic' elimination of potential negotiators (more than one) by bombing them (Trump himself claimed an agreement had been reached with Rodriguez), left Iran with no choice but to select Mujtaba as the 'least likely traitor, lowest risk option.' (The Shiite tradition does not involve hereditary succession, and Khamenei had tried to avoid handing over power to Mujtaba during his tenure). Secondly, while Trump wants to withdraw, Israel won't allow it.

Will the war turn into a prolonged conflict?My personal assessment is that it may cool down into a long-term Iran-Israel conflict. Trump will try every means to leave the Middle East because of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, where prolonged warfare and skyrocketing oil prices are likely to erode his approval ratings. However, Israel will do everything possible to keep Trump involved, so he cannot easily disengage (conspiracy theories suggest that the Epstein files might have been the trigger for the Middle Eastern war, used to 'kidnap' Trump politically). (Later, Trump himself might declare that the U.S. has achieved a great victory and can withdraw from Iran).

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Iran is decentralizing and executing Khamenei's previously designated plan to expand regional warfare.

FT: It is believed that the U.S. and Israel severely misjudged the war with Iran, thinking that decapitating the leader of an 'authoritarian' nation would cause its military to lose fighting capability and its people to overthrow the 'authoritarian regime.' Therefore, Middle East experts believe that Khamenei had already prepared contingency plans, even to the point of 'martyrdom,' ensuring that retaliatory actions could proceed in an orderly manner after the supreme leader’s death.

Gulf countries may review overseas investments to alleviate fiscal pressures caused by the war with Iran.

FT: Gulf countries are facing a fiscal crisis brought on by war, and given their significant overseas investments, they may need to repatriate some of those investments to ease domestic fiscal pressures (Middle Eastern capital has heavily invested in US stocks and computing power infrastructure; the concepts of becoming a financial, tourism, and computing power hub have been severely impacted by the US-Iran conflict). These large sovereign wealth funds might withdraw previously promised investments, including Trump's pledge of billions in funding and commitments to major sporting events. Additionally, the US-Iran conflict has disrupted fertilizer supplies, and with spring now underway in the Northern Hemisphere, the Middle East being the largest producer of fertilizers, ongoing conflict could lead to rising food prices (potentially compounded by this year’s extreme heat causing substantial crop reductions). These factors could accelerate pressure on Trump to end the war. Gulf nations were key contributors to Gaza reconstruction plans and peace committees, but the situation is even undermining the Saudi-dollar system as US military bases have become a reason for attacks on Gulf states.

Blackrock stated on Friday that it has restricted withdrawals from one of its flagship bond funds due to a surge in redemption requests.

The yen is no longer seen as a safe-haven asset... Investors no longer view the yen as a safe-haven during the Iran conflict.

FT: The yen, traditionally a safe-haven asset, has weakened against the dollar, but it hasn't been investors' choice for safety in this conflict. JPMorgan strategists noted that sharp fluctuations in the yen have diminished its appeal as a hedging currency.

Major events next week:

Bloomberg: The US Trade Representative will meet with He Lifeng on the 15th to discuss topics including China’s purchase of Boeing aircraft and soybeans, as well as Taiwan-related issues.

The Wall Street Journal: The US demand is for China to buy less oil from Russia and more from the US. Bessent also hopes that China will subsequently reduce oil imports from Iran.

Regarding next week's FOMC meeting:

Morgan Stanley stated that the Federal Reserve might resume rate cuts as early as June, but there is a risk that an oil price shock triggered by an Iran war could delay the next rate cut.

The bank’s economists are sticking to their previous forecast that the Federal Reserve will carry out two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year — in June and September — despite the possibility that rising energy prices could exacerbate inflation. However, they believe there is a chance the Fed might push back the first rate cut to September or even December, both of which could postpone the next rate cut until 2027.

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