When the STI Pulls Back: Which Stocks Have Historically Held Up Better?

The $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$ has slipped about 3% over the past week, even as its year-to-date gain remains positive. Over the past month, the index is up roughly 0.4% — a sign it has already started to stabilise after the recent dip.

With global tech volatility picking up and macro headlines — including U.S. CPI — keeping risk appetite in check, many Singapore investors are taking another look at how defensive their local holdings really are.

Three past pullbacks, one comparison

We screened eight Singapore blue chips against three recent STI shakeouts:

– August 2024 — global risk-off, yen carry unwind

– November 2024 — U.S. election and rate-path uncertainty

– April 2025 — tariff-shock week

For each episode, we measured returns over the 20 trading days after the pullback and compared them with the STI.

Beat STI (x/3) means a stock outperformed the index in x of those three windows. The chart leads with names that beat the STI in at least two episodes, then adds a few one-episode standouts.

The chart pairs Beat STI (x/3) — historical relative strength after past pullbacks — with 1M / 3M Chg, which shows who has fallen less or rebounded faster in recent months.

In all three cases, the STI itself tended to recover within 20 trading days, with forward returns of roughly +7.3%, +5.5%, and +8.8%. The question is which stocks did better than that.

Who made the list — and how they're doing

The most consistent names are $DBS (D05.SG)$ (D05) and $Sembcorp Ind (U96.SG)$ (U96) — both with a 3/3 Beat STI record. DBS averaged about +3.8ppt of excess return over 20 days in each episode; Sembcorp about +3.1ppt. Banks showed up repeatedly: $UOB (U11.SG)$ (U11) is on the chart at 1/3, led by its post-November 2024 run, and is +2.4% / +4.5% over 1M/3M. Even after a recent weekly dip, DBS is still +5.2% / +11.7% over 1M/3M — one of the few cases where historical resilience and recent performance still line up.

The episodic winners are a different story. $JMH USD (J36.SG)$ (J36) has a 2/3 record and the highest average 20-day excess return in the group (+7.5ppt), driven mainly by April 2025 — but it is -14% / -20% over 1M/3M today. $ST Engineering (S63.SG)$ (S63) only beats the STI once, yet that single episode was the standout of the screen (+10.9ppt after the tariff shock); it is flat over the past month but still up about +26% YTD. Beat STI captures relative strength in the past; 1M/3M Chg shows whether that is showing up in absolute returns now — and the two do not always agree.

Further down the list, the usual "defensive" labels were more hit-and-miss. $Singtel (Z74.SG)$ (Z74) and $ThaiBev (Y92.SG)$ (Y92) each earned a 1/3 on the back of one strong episode, but both are negative over 1M/3M. $Mapletree Ind Tr (ME8U.SG)$ (ME8U) is the only REIT on the chart; other names screened, including CICT and Ascendas REIT, did not make the cut. $OCBC Bank (O39.SG)$ (O39) is worth a mention too — it missed the chart despite +3.4% / +12.1% over 1M/3M, because consistency across episodes matters more than one good run.

What repeated — and what didn't

All three pullbacks looked sharp at the time, yet the $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$ still finished the next 20 trading days in the green: +7.3% after August 2024, +5.5% after the November election week, and +8.8% after April 2025's tariff shock. The April episode was the outlier in severity — the index slid about 10% over two weeks, much deeper than this week's ~3% move.

The names in front changed with the trigger. August's global risk-off favoured banks and utilities (DBS, Sembcorp). November's election-and-rates noise was another bank-led bounce, with UOB and Thai Beverage joining DBS. April's trade shock flipped the leaderboard to Jardine C&C and ST Engineering. REITs and telcos barely featured; when they did, it was usually a one-off.

So there is no single "defensive" basket that wins every time. The one thread that keeps showing up is large-cap banks — and the index itself tending to find a floor within about a month.

From here

This week's pullback looks more like August 2024 than April 2025 in size. The STI is down over the past week, but still up slightly over the past month — similar to the point in past episodes where the 20-day bounce was about to start.

Near term, the swing factor is probably still offshore: tech volatility and the next U.S. CPI read, which could either extend the risk-off mood or take some pressure off rate-sensitive names like the Singapore banks. Locally, the split on the chart is worth keeping in mind — DBS and Sembcorp have both history and recent 1M/3M momentum on their side; Jardine C&C has the April 2025 playbook but not the current price action.

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