Nigel's Weekly Trading Assignment Challenge: Learn, Practice and Win
When the Market Stands Back Up on Its Own: What This Week Taught Us
Friends, let's walk back through the path the market took over these two weeks.
Two Fridays ago (June 5), the market had a "disaster day" — the Nasdaq plunged 4% in a session, chip stocks bled everywhere, and plenty of people panicked, asking: is it crashing?
But what happened next is what's truly worth learning from.
The market didn't keep falling. It slowly stabilized and began to heal — and by last Friday (June 12), it had already staged a clear bounce. Before any major good news appeared, the market was already standing back up on its own.
Then this weekend, it got a shot in the arm.
🔥 What Happened Over the Weekend? (Three Big Things)
First: the Iran deal lit up the whole room.
On Sunday, the US and Iran confirmed a deal, and Trump announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the naval blockade. The market erupted instantly.
Asian markets surged across the board on Monday (June 15): Japan's Nikkei 225 soared 5.5% in morning trading, South Korea's Kospi jumped as much as 5.7%, and Taiwan's Taiex climbed 2.7% (at this point as I'm writing).
But the biggest shift was in oil. Global stocks and bonds rallied while oil slumped to a three-month low — Brent crude fell more than 4% toward $83 a barrel as fears of energy-supply disruption evaporated.
But notice one timing detail — the market's recovery started back on last Friday. This good news wasn't the reason for a resurrection; it took an already-underway rebound and accelerated and amplified it. That distinction matters a lot.
Second: the biggest IPO in history — SpaceX went public.
Also last Friday, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker $SPCX. It opened at $150, hit a high of $176.52 intraday, and closed at $161.11 — up over 19% from the $135 IPO price. Its valuation crossed $2T, making it the sixth most valuable public company in the US.
Third: Musk became the first trillionaire in human history.
The IPO raised a record $75B, pushing Musk's net worth to about $1.1T — making him the first-ever trillionaire.
But I have to add one caution here — excitement is excitement; see the fundamentals clearly. SpaceX actually posted a loss of nearly $5B last year, generating only a fraction of the revenue of similarly valued tech giants, with about 80% of revenue coming from Starlink. The theme is sexy, but many institutional funds are restricted from buying persistently unprofitable companies. When chasing new listings, always keep valuation and fundamentals in mind.
💡 Why Did Stocks Rise When Oil Fell?
This is the lesson most worth understanding today.
Many beginners are confused: doesn't falling oil mean a weak economy? So why did stocks rally hard?
Here's the logic:
Oil drops sharply → inflation pressure eases → the Fed has more room to cut rates and less reason to hike → liquidity improves → high-valuation growth and tech stocks benefit most.
Remember one core framework: stocks thrive on liquidity. Anything that lowers inflation and keeps monetary conditions easier is generally good for equities.
What's even more telling — the market had already been rising despite the war and high oil prices. So falling oil wasn't the reason for this rally; it was an extra tailwind on top of one already underway.
🎯 The Real Homework: Why Could the Market Heal Itself?
Here I want to share a deeper view.
The June 5 plunge was, at its core, a "positioning event" — a crowded trade lit up by a too-strong jobs report, not a breakdown in fundamentals.
Since the fundamentals weren't broken, the market naturally had the capacity to repair itself. And that's exactly what it proved: with no major news at all, it began rebounding on its own internal strength from last Friday.
What did the smart money do? While others panicked, the top traders were quietly adding. Buy weakness when the indicators support it — don't chase after the market has already rallied.
This is what the word "crisis" really means — inside danger, opportunity hides. But on one condition: you have to survive first, and you need bullets left in the chamber.
📉 But Don't Get Carried Away: See the Risks Clearly Too
I don't want to only show you the exciting part. A responsible sharer has to lay out the other side too.
First, this is a "two-week ceasefire," not permanent peace. Reopening the strait, clearing mines, and restoring full traffic all take time, and any setback could shake markets again.
Second, after a big surge, things are "hard to buy." These gap-up days are exactly when people chase at the very top. Don't pile in mindlessly out of FOMO.
Third, the market is getting "crowded" and "extended." The more everyone turns optimistic and wants to rush in, the more careful you should be. Real market tops are usually born the moment everyone is bullish — not in a half-believing moment like now.
In one line: bullish long-term, but restrained short-term. Add slowly, don't go all-in.
🧠 So What Did These Two Weeks Actually Teach Us?
Looking back on these dramatic two weeks, the most valuable thing was never "how much you made" — it's these lessons, carved into the bone:
Don't make decisions in panic. If you'd panicked on June 5 and sold everything, watching the rebound that followed would only hurt more.
Don't cry "bear market" before the trend breaks. A strong economy usually doesn't manufacture a bear market; when fundamentals aren't broken, the market can heal itself.
Real opportunity looks like "danger." The pullbacks that make your knees weak often hide the best entry points.
Surviving matters more than fast money. The market always has opportunities; what's scarce are people who live long enough to reach the next one.
🎯 This Week's Focus: Which Sectors, Which Names?
This is the part I know you care about most — what to watch this week. Here are the directions showing relative strength right now (note: these are areas to observe, not buy recommendations — every decision should return to your own discipline):
1. AI Semiconductors & Infrastructure — hit hardest in the pullback, bounced the hardest too. Worth watching strong-relative-strength leaders like $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ , $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ , $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$
2. Software & Cybersecurity — signs of money rotating from hardware into software. Watch names that held up in the pullback, like $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$ , $Datadog (DDOG.US)$ .
3. AI Compute / Neo-cloud — names like $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ that fell less than the market on disaster day and led to new highs are classic "the strong stay strong."
4. Beneficiaries of lower oil — falling oil helps airlines, logistics, and consumers. Lower transport costs improve margins for these sectors.
On strategy: the market just surged, so the biggest danger is FOMO-chasing the top. Focus on who held up best in the pullback and who led to new highs first — relative strength is the most honest signal in a storm.
🚀 The Next Theme? Semiconductor Equipment
Finally, a direction I think is well worth studying early — also a theme moomoo Insights recently highlighted.
The AI hardware trade keeps rotating "upstream": first GPUs → then HBM memory → then power, cooling, optical. The next layer may be the equipment that manufactures these chips itself.
The logic is simple: when AI demand grows large enough, the bottleneck shifts from "not enough chips to sell" to "not enough capacity to make them." Semiconductor equipment makers sit right at that bottleneck.
The key number is WFE (Wafer Fab Equipment spending) — the prior 2022 peak was about $98B, recent 2026 forecasts now point to roughly $140B–$154B, with 2027 potentially toward $180B to over $200B. What makes this cycle different: past equipment cycles were driven by a single end market (phones, PCs, 5G) with clear saturation points; this time AI pulls from multiple directions at once — leading-edge logic, DRAM/HBM, NAND, and advanced packaging all feeding the same capex channel.
Global & China Wafer Fab Equipment TAM
Based on moomoo's value-chain breakdown, here's a "map worth studying" (directions to research, not buy recommendations):
Front-end Equipment — making the wafer
Lithography: $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ — the absolute EUV bottleneck; $Veeco Instruments (VECO.US)$ , plus Japan's $Nikon (7731.JP)$ and $Canon (CAJPY.US)$
Thin Film Deposition: $Lam Research (LRCX.US)$ , $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$ , $CVD Equipment (CVV.US)$
Metrology & Inspection: $KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$ $Nova (NVMI.US)$ , $Onto Innovation (ONTO.US)$ , $Bruker Corp (BRKR.US)$ , $Keysight Technologies (KEYS.US)$ , $Camtek (CAMT.US)$
Back-end Equipment — packaging & testing the chip
Advanced Packaging: $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$ , $ACM Research (ACMR.US)$ , $Onto Innovation (ONTO.US)$ , $Camtek (CAMT.US)$ — the critical layer for HBM and AI chips
The Next Theme?
⚠️ See the risks clearly: the whole thesis depends on sustained AI capex — if Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, or Oracle narrow data-center spending, the equipment chain feels it first. The other risk is export controls weighing on China revenue. Equipment stocks have already moved sharply, so even a pause in upward estimate revisions could create volatility.
Next, I'll break down the technical charts of a few semiconductor-equipment leaders individually — if you're interested, keep an eye out for my upcoming content.
🎓 You Understand It — Now What? Do You Dare to Act?
I know many of you are thinking:
"I get the theory now, but when that 'disaster day' actually comes, I still won't dare to move."
That's completely normal. Between 'knowing' and 'doing' lies a river called fear.
And the only way across is to practice.
That's exactly why I want to recommend the moomoo Paper Trading Competition.
Real market data, zero risk. On a paper account, you can personally live through the panic of a "disaster day" and the process of a "recovery rebound" — practicing your sizing, your stops, and your heart in the storm.
Learn all the "expensive lessons" first, in a place where they cost nothing. So when the next real opportunity arrives, you'll dare — and be able — to act steadily.
👉 Sign up here: SIGN UP
This June — build your nerve first, then build your skill.
Join our upcoming live webinar:
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are people who can stay steady in the storm. 📈
This article is for market observation and educational sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please proceed with caution.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.Read more
Comments (277)
to post a comment
319
41