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What Sparked the Crypto Rally? A Stealth Ethereum Upgrade May Hold the Answer

Crypto-Moo joined discussion · Dec 3, 2025 02:40

On December 3, 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a significant rebound. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ skyrocketed from 85,000 to 93,000, and $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ broke through the 3,000 mark from around 2,700. As the market debates the source of this surge, the topic of an Ethereum upgrade—a major event that always significantly impacts market trends—has surfaced once again. Let's review the history of Ethereum upgrades and analyze the patterns of price surges before and after each event.

What Sparked the Crypto Rally? A Stealth Ethereum Upgrade May Hold the Answer

1. London Upgrade

– Date: August 5, 2021

– Core Content: EIP-1559. Introduced the ETH Burn mechanism, giving ETH deflationary potential, and reformed the Gas fee market.

– Market Background: The 2021 Great Bull Market. The market was in a strong recovery phase following a correction in May.

– Price Performance:

◦ Pre-Upgrade: The market was full of anticipation for the EIP-1559 deflationary narrative. ETH prices began a strong rebound from the July lows (approx. $1,700).

◦ Post-Upgrade: The upgrade was viewed as a major bullish event. The combination of the deflationary narrative, the NFT craze, and overall bull market sentiment drove ETH to continue rising for the next three months, reaching an all-time high of approximately $4,890 in November 2021.

– Summary: Strong fundamental upgrades (deflation) resonated perfectly with a strong bull market (macro).

2. The Merge (Paris Upgrade)

– Date: September 15, 2022

– Core Content: The Ethereum mainnet transitioned from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS). Energy consumption was reduced by 99.95%, and the annual issuance of new ETH was drastically cut.

– Market Background: The 2022 Deep Bear Market. Global central banks were aggressively hiking interest rates, and market liquidity was drying up.

– Price Performance:

◦ Pre-Upgrade: A classic case of "Buy the Rumor." Despite the bear market, ETH relied on the "Merge" narrative to rebound strongly from June lows (approx. $900) to over $2,000 by mid-August.

◦ Post-Upgrade: "Sell the Fact." Once the upgrade successfully landed, the positive news was exhausted. Compounded by macro bear market pressure, ETH faced an immediate sell-off after the upgrade, dropping to around $1,200 within a week.

– Summary: The force of the macro bear market overwhelmed the long-term benefits of the technical upgrade; short-term price performance was poor.

3. Shanghai Upgrade (Shapella)

– Date: April 12, 2023

– Core Content: Opened withdrawals for staked ETH on the Beacon Chain.

– Market Background: The market began a slow recovery from the bear market bottom in early 2023.

– Price Performance:

◦ Pre-Upgrade: The market's biggest fear was whether "withdrawal unlocking" would trigger a massive sell-off. However, the price steadily rose from approx. $1,400 in mid-March to around $1,900 before the upgrade.

◦ Post-Upgrade: The market realized that withdrawals were processed via a "queue," and the LSD (Liquid Staking Derivatives) narrative gained traction, preventing a crash.

4. Dencun Upgrade (Cancun-Deneb)

– Date: March 13, 2024

– Core Content: EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding). Introduced "Blobs," aiming to significantly reduce transaction fees for Layer 2 (L2) solutions.

– Market Background: The strong bull market recovery of 2024, triggered by the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.、

– Price Performance:

◦ Pre-Upgrade: Driven by the L2 narrative and overall bull market sentiment, ETH prices soared from approx. $2,200 in late January to around $4,000 on the day of the upgrade.

◦ Post-Upgrade: While L2 Gas fees did drop significantly, ETH prices entered a short-term correction along with the broader market. A "Sell the Fact" scenario played out, and prices retreated from the $4,000 high.

– Summary: The benefits of the upgrade were hyped and priced in early against the backdrop of a bull market.

5. Pectra Upgrade (Prague-Electra)

– Date: May 7, 2025

◦ Account Abstraction (AA): Introduced EIP-7702 and others, vastly improving Wallet User Experience (UX), supporting social recovery, gas sponsorship, etc., viewed as a key step toward mass adoption.

◦ Staking Improvements: EIP-7251 ("MaxEB") increased the effective balance cap for validators from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, simplifying operations for large staking nodes.

◦ L2 Scaling: Further increased Blob throughput, making L2 transaction data costs "almost zero."

– Core Content: The most significant upgrade since "The Merge." Included 11 EIPs, with the core being:

– Market Background: The market performance at the start of 2025 was flat, and ETH prices were relatively sluggish prior to the upgrade (hovering in the $1,800 - $1,900 zone).

– Price Performance:

◦ Upgrade Day (May 7): When the upgrade occurred, the market reaction was muted, with prices holding around $1,820, similar to the immediate reaction during "The Merge."

◦ Post-Upgrade (May 8-10): This was a case of "Delayed Reaction." Within 48-72 hours after the upgrade completion, the market began to digest the long-term major benefits of this upgrade (especially Account Abstraction) for the ecosystem. Market sentiment was reignited, triggering a strong "Short Squeeze," and ETH prices surged over 30% in two days, breaking through $2,000.

◦ Post-Upgrade (May - August): This rally, ignited by the upgrade, lasted throughout the summer, pushing ETH to an all-time-high of approx. $4,946 in mid-August 2025..

– Summary: The Pectra upgrade took place during a market lull, breaking the "Sell the Fact" curse. It triggered a "delayed, fundamentals-driven" rally, achieving over 100% gains in the following three months, though it has since corrected significantly from the highs.

Summary: Insights for the December 3rd "Fusaka" Upgrade

(The following analysis is based on historical pattern deduction and does not constitute investment advice. The market is complex and volatile, and history does not simply repeat itself.)

Looking back at history, before the "Merge," "Shanghai," and "Dencun" upgrades, the market found associated projects to hype (such as LDO, SSV, OP, ARB). This caused ETH's positive news to be overdrawn in advance, making it prone to a "Sell the Fact" drop when the upgrade actually landed.

The Pectra upgrade was the only exception.

Pectra was an "inward-looking" technical upgrade (Account Abstraction, Staking improvements) that lacked obvious "beta" assets for speculation. Therefore, the market reaction before the upgrade was flat. It wasn't until the upgrade successfully launched that the market began to digest its long-term benefits, triggering a "delayed" rally.

Given that the Fusaka Upgrade (December 3) is more similar in nature to Pectra—it is a core protocol improvement, and the market has not seen associated hype or significant price increases prior to the upgrade—we can draw a clear conclusion:

It is most likely to replicate the Pectra trend: The market will likely only begin to react after the upgrade successfully lands, resulting in a "back-loaded" or delayed upward trend.