What Happened Last Week? Markets Stall at the Top, Gold Looks Shaky

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Pro-Israel Lobby Influence Faces Pushback

In the Michigan primary, candidates attacked each other over ties to pro-Israel lobbying groups. Support from AIPAC-aligned organisations has shifted from a political asset to a liability, reflecting a broader shift in US public opinion that may gradually weaken Israel's influence over American policy decisions.

US Ammunition Stockpiles Running Low

The US has awarded Lockheed Martin a $58.6 billion Patriot missile contract to replenish weapons depleted by the Ukraine and Iran conflicts. With defence industrial capacity constrained and fiscal resources stretched, the US cannot restock quickly — limiting the military option of a large-scale war with Iran.

China's Homegrown DUV Lithography Machine: Real or Rumour?

US media reported that a Chinese state-owned enterprise has begun mass-producing immersion deep-ultraviolet lithography machines, with around five units planned for delivery this year to SMIC and others — news that triggered a sharp drop in ASML's share price. If true, Chinese A-shares should have rallied on the news, not fallen. That disconnect raises questions about the report's accuracy. Regardless, the direction of China's self-sufficiency push is clear, and US export controls have not stopped domestic progress.

Big Tech Earnings Split: AI Is Entering a Prove-It Moment

Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta all reported accelerating cloud revenue — but heavy capex is squeezing free cash flow, prompting the market to reassess AI returns. Demand for AI hasn't peaked, but the sector is rotating from a broad-based rally to a profit-delivery phase. The distinction now is which companies have real revenue and real cash flow behind the story.

Apple Pushes for a Price Cut — and Gets Refused

Apple asked CXMT (长鑫科技) to lower its prices, but CXMT declined — most of its capacity is already locked up with domestic Chinese customers. The refusal helped stabilise market pricing.

US Treasury and Japan Intervene Jointly in the Yen

The New York Fed, acting on behalf of the US Treasury, sold euros and bought yen — the first joint intervention to support the yen since 1998. The calculus is straightforward: the US needs Japan to keep buying Treasuries; Japan needs the US to help defend the yen. But Japan's economic fundamentals remain weak, and short-term intervention is unlikely to reverse a long-term depreciation trend.

30-Year Treasury Yields Push Higher — Supply Shock Just Getting Started

US Treasury yields have held at elevated levels for their longest stretch since 2007. High-yield AI corporate bonds are crowding out demand for Treasuries. With long-term inflation, fiscal deficits, and a growing supply of AI corporate debt all hitting simultaneously, the imbalance between Treasury supply and demand is worsening. If foreign buyers can't absorb the supply, sovereign credit risk moves higher.

Precious Metals Rebound

The Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper concentrate and cobalt. Gold prices began recovering last week — the rate decision overhang has passed, and bearish sentiment toward gold is fading. Layered on top of that, copper prices are rebounding and supply is tightening. Momentum across the precious metals complex is strengthening.

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