What are the key US stock events to watch in February? Major earnings reports from NVIDIA, Alphabet, Palantir, AMD, and others! Focus on Apple's 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting, US January Employment Statistics, US December PCE, and US January CPI.

Trading for January 2026 has concluded, and the US stock market is set to enter a more significant February after an initial round of position adjustments at the start of the year. This month, half of the 'M7' companies are scheduled to release their earnings, along with the delayed December US PCE price index and the crucial January US CPI inflation indicator.

In this month mixed with macroeconomic uncertainty and the verification of major corporate performances, investors should focus on two main themes. One isThe feasibility and sustainability of AI monetization, and the other isThe stickiness of inflation following a soft landing of the US economy. Below, we provide a detailed explanation of the key US stock events to watch in February.

February 3 (Tuesday)

00:00 JST US January ISM Manufacturing PMI

As a key economic indicator released at the start of each month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is considered a 'leading indicator' reflecting the health of the U.S. economy. Following fluctuations in the second half of 2025, the market is closely watching whether this indicator can break through the 50 threshold. Analysts are focusing on the 'new orders index' and the 'prices paid index,' with the former indicating future demand and the latter suggesting upstream inflationary pressures.

If the data is strong (significantly above 50), it will confirm a recovery in US manufacturing, pushing up US Treasury yields and benefiting the dollar, but could put short-term pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Conversely, if the data falls below 48, markets may again worry about a recession, prompting risk-averse moves that could strengthen the yen and weigh on cyclical sectors.

After market close on February 2nd (US Eastern Time) - Palantir earnings release
A leader in AI applications,$Palantir (PLTR.US)$its performance will be a litmus test for the feasibility of corporate AI demand. The market is focusing on revenue growth rates in its commercial sector and customer conversion rates for AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform). Additionally,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$changes in institutional investor holdings after its inclusion are also one of the key highlights. If AIP delivers better-than-expected growth, trust in AI software-related SaaS stocks could significantly rise, potentially driving gains in related stocks.

February 4th (Wednesday)

22:15 Japan Time　US January ADP Employment Report

After market close on February 3rd (US Eastern Time) - AMD earnings release

Led by Lisa Su$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$However$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The focus is on how much market share can be captured without being overshadowed. The market is closely watching the sales guidance for MI300 and the subsequent MI325 series chips. Phrases such as 'easing production bottlenecks' or 'increase in bulk orders' will be considered significant positive factors. AMD's earnings guidance directly impacts the semiconductor sector’s valuation. If guidance is weak, the market may suspect a 'peak-out in AI chip demand,' which could weigh down the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.$PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$and could push down the entire index.

February 5 (Thursday)

After the close on February 4, Eastern Time　Alphabet Earnings Announcement

$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$is facing a dual challenge of 'defense' and 'offense.' On the defensive side, the resilience of search ads under the influence of AI Search will be tested. On the offensive side, all eyes are on whether Google Cloud can grow faster than Azure or AWS with AI workloads. Additionally, Wall Street is focused on the latest revenue potential of the Gemini model and the scale of capital expenditure (CapEx). If CapEx is excessive without a clear ROI (Return on Investment) path, the stock price might face punitive corrections. Conversely, if cloud service growth exceeds expectations, it would be a positive for the entire cloud computing industry.

February 6 (Friday)

Japan Time 22:30　U.S. January non-farm payroll employment, U.S. January unemployment rate

January’s non-farm payrolls data often comes with annual benchmark revisions, leading to many unexpected results. The Fed is at a critical juncture for policy fine-tuning, and the market expects modest job growth (150,000 to 200,000), stable unemployment (4.0% to 4.2%), and contained wage increases. A stronger-than-expected rebound in wage growth could directly suppress March rate cut expectations, causing US Treasury yields to spike sharply.$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$There is a possibility that the index will come under pressure.

After market close on February 5 (US Eastern Time) – Amazon earnings release
Focus on AWS's profit margins and the results of cost reductions and efficiency improvements in North American retail operations. As one of the two giants in e-commerce and cloud services,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$the earnings report serves as an indicator of US consumer spending power and corporate IT expenditure.

February 11 (Wednesday)

Japan Time 22:30　U.S. January CPI

The most important inflation data before the Fed’s March policy meeting. Attention will be on whether core CPI (excluding food and energy) can remain at or below 0.2% month-over-month. Particularly crucial will be whether shelter inflation has meaningfully eased. If the CPI data proves 'stubborn',$USD (USDindex.FX)$it could lead to a sharp rebound, with selling pressure on currencies other than gold and the dollar. The US stock market may experience significant intraday volatility, particularly affecting small-cap stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.

After market close on February 10 (US Eastern Time) – Robinhood earnings release
In the earnings report, growth in trading commission income from cryptocurrencies and equities, driven by an improving market, as well as the diversification of revenue sources will be in focus. In particular, attention will be on whether the expansion of asset management services, such as credit cards and retirement accounts, has contributed to the increase in assets under custody (AUC). Enhancing customer value through capturing affluent clients and improving profit margins for sustainable profitability are also key factors that could influence market evaluation.$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$In the financial results, in addition to the growth in trading fee income from cryptocurrencies and stocks against the backdrop of a market recovery, the diversification of revenue sources will be a focal point. In particular, attention will be paid to whether the expansion of asset management services such as credit cards and retirement accounts contributes to the increase in assets under custody (AUC). The improvement in customer value through the acquisition of wealthy clients and the enhancement of profit margins towards sustainable profitability are also crucial keys that influence market evaluations.

February 13 (Friday)

After the close on February 12, Eastern Time　Coinbase Earnings Announcement

As Bitcoin spot ETFs mature,$Coinbase (COIN.US)$changes in the structure of Coinbase’s custody and trading income, along with the impact of regulatory changes and profit contributions from Layer 2 network Base, are points of interest. The company's performance often reflects leverage in the cryptocurrency market. Exceeding earnings expectations may push up shares related to Bitcoin,$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$、$Strategy (MSTR.US)$、$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$、$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$among other effects.

February 16 (Monday)
US Market Closed (President’s Day)

February 20 (Friday)

Japan Time 22:30　US December PCE Price Index

The US December PCE data, which was originally scheduled for release at the end of January, has been delayed and is now expected to be released on February 20. This 'delayed' data represents the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Fed and still carries significant weight. The market will adjust its expectations for the path toward the Fed's long-term inflation target based on this release.

Given the lag in the data, if the December PCE shows a rebound in inflation, it could trigger market panic as investors may perceive inflation as being more stubborn than expected, potentially pushing up long-term interest rates. Conversely, if the data is mild, the market will likely feel reassured and continue trading in line with a soft-landing scenario.

February 25 (Wednesday)

01:00 JST　Apple Annual Shareholders Meeting

Marking the first year of AI-powered smartphones, investors are looking forward to Tim Cook’s comments on the AI features of the next-generation iPhone and new growth drivers for the services business. Additionally, an increase in dividends or updates to share buyback plans could provide stability to Apple’s stock price.

Pre-market EST on February 25　Circle's earnings announcement
The issuer of USDC$Circle (CRCL.US)$Its performance reflects the vibrancy of the stablecoin ecosystem and the velocity of US dollar assets circulating in the digital world. The state of its interest income also highlights the impact of the Fed’s interest rate policy.

Thursday, February 26

After market close on February 25, US Eastern Time　NVIDIA's earnings announcement

This is not just an earnings announcement but also a ‘quarterly test’ for global AI enthusiasm. Key factors such as shipments of Blackwell architecture chips by early 2026, demand for H200, and order sizes for Sovereign AI will determine whether the company can maintain its remarkably high valuation. Temporary pressures from improving new product yields affecting gross margins are points of interest for short sellers.

●Optimistic scenario: Revenue guidance once again beats expectations significantly, directly boosting the Nasdaq index. This could push US stocks to new all-time highs by the end of February,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$and benefit server manufacturers,$Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$、$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$and the like are also expected to rise significantly.

●Pessimistic scenario: If earnings meet expectations or guidance comes in slightly weak, the market may interpret this as all positive factors being priced in, potentially triggering aggressive profit-taking across the semiconductor sector, and possibly pressuring the broader market.

Summary

For investors, the biggest risk this month lies in an "expectations mismatch"—namely, excessive expectations for rate cuts or overly high projections for AI-driven profit growth. Investors should closely watch the delayed PCE data release on February 20 and NVIDIA's earnings on February 26. These two events could serve as critical turning points that shape market trends for the remainder of the first quarter.

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, moomoo

-moomoo News Kouchi

This article utilizes partial automated translation.

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