Weekly Trading Report (3rd Week Jan)

A Quick Review of my Trading Activities in this week ( 19 - 23 Jan 2026 )

Market Overview

- Market performance diverged sharply this week as geopolitical tensions reshaped investor sentiment. While the $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ slipped 0.35%, the $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ managed a 0.30% gain. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market faced a steep sell-off, with $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ plunging 6.22% and $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ plummeting 10.79%. Rising global risks sparked a massive surge in safe-haven commodities; spot gold $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ jumped 8.53% and $Crude Oil Futures (JUN6) (CLmain.US)$ rose 3.48%. Concurrently, the $USD (USDindex.FX)$ sank 1.91% as capital rotated out of USD assets, while the $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ edged up a slight 0.15%.

- On Jan 19, President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne. This move serves as leverage to pressure President Macron into joining the newly formed Board of Peace for Gaza. Trump remarked that while participation is voluntary, the steep duties would likely "convince" France to join. Macron has since rejected the proposal, labeling the use of trade penalties to influence foreign policy as unacceptable "bullying.

- On Jan 21, President Trump announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he reached a "framework of a future deal" with NATO regarding Greenland. This agreement effectively de-escalated a mounting crisis, with Trump ruling out the use of military force to acquire the territory. Consequently, he scrapped planned tariffs of up to 25% on eight European nations, including Denmark, France, Germany and the UK, which were set to begin in February. While specific terms remain vague, the compromise focuses on Arctic security and the "Golden Dome" missile defense system. It also suggests potential US access to Greenland's critical minerals and the establishment of sovereign military pockets, though Denmark maintains that the island’s sovereignty is not for sale.

- On Jan 22, President Trump officially launched the Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos. This body is designed to oversee a 20-point roadmap for the Gaza ceasefire, reconstruction, and long-term governance. While the initiative secured support from key regional players and some allies—including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, and Hungary—it face significant pushback from traditional Western partners. France, Sweden, and Norway explicitly declined to join, citing concerns that the body could undermine the United Nations or violate international law. The United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy remained noncommittal, with Germany and Italy raising constitutional concerns over the board’s governance structure. Notably, President Trump rescinded Canada’s invitation following a disagreement with Prime Minister Mark Carney. Critics labeled the plan "imperial," questioning its legitimacy and the lack of Palestinian consultation.

- On Jan 20, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns that the US is entering a "capital war" where escalating tariffs and geopolitical conflicts—such as the recent Greenland dispute—erode trust in the dollar. As the US issues massive debt to fund deficits, foreign investors and central banks are becoming less willing to hold Treasuries, fearing currency devaluation and "debt death spirals." To protect purchasing power, Dalio urges diversification beyond traditional US assets. He recommends a 5–15% gold allocation, viewing it as a "hard currency" and a vital hedge that thrives when debt-based systems and fiat currencies falter.

- On Jan 21, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ CEO Jamie Dimon warns that a 10% interest cap would force banks to stop lending to high-risk borrowers to cover potential losses. He predicts this would strip credit access from 80% of Americans, paralyzing consumer spending. Dimon argues the move would devastate retailers and small businesses more than banks, ultimately destabilizing the broader economy.

- On Jan 22, President Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan and CEO Jamie Dimon, alleging the bank closed his accounts in February 2021 due to "woke" political bias following the January 6th Capitol riot. Trump claims the move disrupted his business operations and resulted in a "blacklist" shared with other lenders. JPMorgan denied the allegations, stating they close accounts only for legal or regulatory risks, not for political or religious reasons, dismissing the suit as meritless.

- On Jan 20, a regulatory filing revealed that $Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ may sell its entire 325 million-share stake (27.5%) in $The Kraft Heinz (KHC.US)$. Valued at roughly $7.3 billion, the move marks Greg Abel’s first major strategic decision since becoming CEO on Jan 1. The potential exit follows a decade of underperformance and a $3.8 billion writedown in 2025. By divesting from this Buffett-era staple, Abel signals a pragmatic shift away from the traditional "buy-and-hold forever" philosophy, prioritizing portfolio cleanup over sentiment as Kraft Heinz prepares for a corporate split.

- On Jan 18, OpenAI confirmed that its annualized revenue skyrocketed to $20 billion in 2025, more than tripling the $6 billion recorded in 2024. This unprecedented expansion was driven by a massive influx of nearly 900 million weekly active users and a sharp increase in high-value enterprise subscriptions. However, maintaining this lead came at a steep price. The company reportedly burned approximately $8.5 billion in cash during the year, largely due to the immense computing power and specialized talent required to sustain its global infrastructure. While OpenAI's growth is historically fast, the narrow margin between its multi-billion-dollar income and its staggering operational costs highlights the high-stakes nature of the AI industry.

- On Jan 20, $ServiceNow (NOW.US)$ and OpenAI announced an expanded three-year strategic partnership. The deal embeds OpenAI’s latest frontier models, including GPT-5.2, directly into the ServiceNow platform. A major highlight is the development of native speech-to-speech voice technology, allowing AI agents to understand and respond to verbal requests in real time without text translation. This agreement positions OpenAI as a preferred provider for ServiceNow's 80 billion annual enterprise workflows, focusing on autonomous, end-to-end task execution.

- On Jan 20, $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ reported Q4 revenue of $12.05 billion and an EPS of $0.56, both slightly exceeding analyst forecasts. While the streamer crossed a record 325 million global subscribers, shares fell roughly 5% following the announcement. Investors reacted to softer-than-expected Q1 2026 guidance and a pause in share buybacks to fund an all-cash $83 billion acquisition of $Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.US)$. Despite the stock dip, Netflix’s shift toward a hybrid model proved successful as ad revenue surged 2.5 times in 2025 to $1.5 billion, with projections to reach $3 billion by year-end.

- On Jan 21, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ founder Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin announced TeraWave, a "megaconstellation" of 5,408 satellites designed to deliver ultra-high-speed, symmetrical data speeds of up to 6 Tbps. Unlike the consumer-focused Starlink or Amazon’s own Project Kuiper, TeraWave specifically targets enterprise, data centers, and government agencies requiring massive bandwidth and low latency. The network uses a hybrid orbit strategy with 5,280 satellites in LEO and 128 in MEO. Deployment is scheduled to begin in Q4 2027 using Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.

- On Jan 22, TikTok finalized a deal to form TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, a majority US-owned entity. The agreement slashes ByteDance’s stake to 19.9%, while a consortium led by $Oracle (ORCL.US)$, Silver Lake, and MGX—each holding 15%—takes control. Oracle will host all US data and the recommendation algorithm in its secure cloud to ensure "software assurance." President Trump praised the deal on Truth Social, specifically thanking President Xi Jinping for his ultimate approval, which averted a looming nationwide ban and secured the platform for 200 million American users.

- On Jan 23, $Intel (INTC.US)$ shares plunged 17%, their steepest single-day decline in years. Despite beating Q4 estimates with $13.7 billion in revenue, the sell-off was triggered by a dismal Q1 2026 forecast. CEO Lip-Bu Tan cited severe supply constraints and subpar yields on next-generation manufacturing nodes like 18A. While AI-driven data center demand is surging, Intel’s factories are struggling to pivot, leaving profitable sales on the table. The company expects breakeven earnings for Q1, significantly missing Wall Street’s expectations and highlighting a rocky manufacturing turnaround.

- On Jan 24, The Trump administration is reportedly taking a 10% stake in $USA Rare Earth (USAR.US)$ via a $1.6 billion deal. The package combines $277 million for equity and warrants with $1.3 billion in CHIPS Act loans. This funding supports a Texas mine and Oklahoma magnet facility, aiming to break China’s critical mineral monopoly. It marks a continued shift toward the federal government taking ownership in private firms to secure supply chains vital for defense and AI.

- On Jan 22, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its final reading for Q3 2025, revising the annualized GDP growth rate upward to 4.4%. This 0.1% increase from the previous estimate represents the strongest economic expansion in two years. Growth was primarily fueled by a 9.6% surge in exports and robust business investment, particularly in AI-related infrastructure. These gains successfully offset a slight downward revision in consumer spending, which still grew at a solid 3.5% pace. While the headline figure suggests a "booming" economy, analysts note a "jobless" trend, as hiring remains sluggish despite high productivity.

- On Jan 22, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the delayed November 2025 PCE report. Both headline and core inflation rose 2.8% YoY, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. Despite persistent price pressures, consumer spending increased 0.5% MoM, reflecting resilient demand. These figures have cemented market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at the Jan 28 meeting, pausing the easing cycle after three consecutive cuts in late 2025.

- On Jan 18, Lazard CEO Peter Orszag and PIIE President Adam Posen warned that US inflation could surge past 4% by year-end. Their research indicates that importers, rather than foreign exporters, have borne nearly the entire cost of recent tariffs. While companies initially absorbed these costs using excess inventory, Orszag warns that this "buffer" has depleted. As businesses accelerate price pass-through to consumers, it could add 50–70 basis points to 2026 inflation.

- On Jan 22, President Trump abruptly scrapped a proposal to let homebuyers tap 401(k) and 529 accounts penalty-free for down payments, citing the record performance of retirement portfolios as a reason to keep them intact. Instead, he pivoted to Executive Order 14376, signed January 20, which targets "Wall Street" investors to curb housing competition. The order restricts large firms from using federal financing (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) to buy single-family homes and mandates "first-look" periods for families. Crucially, it includes an exemption for build-to-rent communities, as these projects are viewed as adding new supply rather than depleting existing inventory for individual buyers.

- On Jan 21, Supreme Court justices signaled deep skepticism toward President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over unproven mortgage fraud allegations. Both conservative and liberal justices questioned the lack of a formal hearing and warned that granting the President unilateral removal power could "shatter" the Federal Reserve's independence. A ruling is expected by June; meanwhile, Cook remains on the board.

- On Jan 19, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a record-low birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000, with births plummeting 17% to 7.92 million. The total population shrank by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. Despite this demographic strain, 2025 GDP grew by 5%, meeting Beijing's target through record exports. To maintain stability, the central bank held its one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.00%.

- On Jan 23, government data revealed Japan’s annual inflation cooled to 2.1% in December, down from 2.9% and the lowest since March 2022. This drop was largely driven by energy subsidies and stabilizing food costs. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75%, a strategic pause following its December hike. While inflation is nearing the 2% target, record-high prices and a weak yen maintain pressure on consumers ahead of the February snap election.

- On Jan 24, President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports if Canada proceeds with a trade deal with China. The warning follows Prime Minister Carney’s recent visit to China, where he secured a "strategic partnership" to lower agricultural tariffs in exchange for allowing 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into Canada. Trump accused Carney—whom he mockingly called "Governor"—of trying to turn Canada into a "Drop Off Port" for Chinese goods to circumvent US trade barriers. This escalation follows a verbal spat at Davos, where Carney criticized "great power coercion”.

- On Jan 24, federal Border Patrol agents shot and killed Alex Jeffrey Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse and US citizen, during a protest in Minneapolis. The Trump administration and DHS claim agents acted in self-defense after Pretti approached them with a 9mm handgun. However, bystander videos appear to show Pretti holding only a cellphone while attempting to assist another protester before being tackled and shot. Local officials confirmed Pretti was a licensed gun owner with no criminal record beyond traffic tickets, leading to intense disputes over the administration's narrative.

Trading Recap

- The Ringgit's surge has erased my year-to-date returns—a frustrating reality for Malaysians seeking growth in US stocks.

- I’ve added three new positions: Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, and Oracle. I view Berkshire as a defensive yet 'breakthrough' play, where a new CEO could inject fresh energy into the firm. Despite its recent pullback, Palantir remains a dominant AI leader. Finally, I believe Oracle, a premier AI infrastructure provider, may be bottoming out after its significant recent plunge.

- I continued to DCA into 11 of my positions following this week's dip.

New Positions (3)

$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ , $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ , $Oracle (ORCL.US)$

Increased Positions (11)

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ , $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ , $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ , $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ , $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ , $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ , $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ , $Circle (CRCL.US)$ , $Cloudflare (NET.US)$ , $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$

Decreased / Sold out Positions (0)

None

Portfolio Performance

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