Weekly Highlights (May 11-May 15)

Watch 1 — Beijing Summit (Thursday). Trump arrives Thursday — the biggest single variable of the week. Two things to watch. First, can China broker an Iran ceasefire? Yes — oil drops, equities broaden up. Second, U.S.–China stable framework re-confirmation. Both deliver — risk premium collapses. Either misses — energy spikes, AI stalls.

Watch 2 — CSCO + AMAT (Wed / Thu after close). Morgan Stanley's bar: $800B to $1T in capex. Beat — semis extend. Miss— semis give back recent gains, back to prior levels.

Watch 3 — CPI (Tuesday). The pre-summit print. Cool — bulls run, rate-cut path alive. Hot — S&P tests 7,250, defensives lead.

Watch 4 — CTA Sell Line (SPX 7,250). Daily buying below $500M; capacity is exhausted. Break the 50-day — up to $770M in passive selling kicks in. Hold above — the squeeze runs.

Watch 5 — BTC Policy Window. Two threads: the Clarity Act in Senate Banking, and the national strategic reserve narrative. Either lands — strongest crypto catalyst of the year.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$

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