Thanksgiving week & Black Friday: Will US stocks continue their historical strength?

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Week 48 Update: We Called the Bounce! But Is the Move Already Over?

Options Hunter joined discussion · Nov 24, 2025 23:05

Week 48 Update: We Called the Bounce! But Is the Move Already Over?

🦃 The Thanksgiving Drift: Breakout or Nap Time?

Remember that "Wave Up" we talked about yesterday? Well, Monday didn't waste any time. We saw a massive +1.47% surge on the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$, almost hitting our weekly target in a single day. But before you chase the green candles, let's talk about the "Holiday Factor" and why the rest of the week might look very different.

Sources: Week 48: The "Flush" is Done? Is the Seasonal Bounce Next?

🔎 Key Takeaways:

– The Validation: Monday’s rally confirmed our Week 48 bullish bias. ✅

– The Hurdle: Price is testing the 50-day Moving Average (Resistance). 🚧

– The Trap: Holiday weeks often see volume dry up="The Drift." 💤

– The Bonus: Time Decay (Theta) works for sellers even when markets are closed. ⏳

📉 WHAT: The "Almost" Breakout

Yesterday (Monday) was a textbook bullish response to the seasonality data.

– The Move: SPY rallied +1.47%, validating our Week 48 bullish bias (80% probability).

– The Resistance: Price charged right up to the 50-day Moving Average (50SMA), tested it, but ultimately closed just below it.

My Read: The bulls are present, but the 50SMA is still acting as a ceiling. We haven't cleared the hurdle yet.

🦃 WHY: The "Turkey Effect" (Volume Warning)

Is the big move for the week already finished? It’s possible.

Important Context: This is a holiday-shortened week.

– Thursday (Nov 27): Market CLOSED (Thanksgiving).

– Friday (Nov 28): Market EARLY CLOSE (1:00 PM ET).

What usually happens? Institutional traders often check out by Wednesday afternoon. This typically leads to lower volume and choppy, sideways action. Without big institutional money pushing the pedal, breaking through a major resistance like the 50SMA becomes much harder.

We might not see a "breakout"—we might just see a "drift."

🛠 HOW: Analyzing the "Bull Put Spread" Scenario

Yesterday, we discussed utilizing the Bull Put Spread. Let’s look at why that specific structure benefits from the holiday calendar:

1. Directional Benefit (Delta): With the market moving up (+1.47%), the price moves away from the short put strikes, increasing the probability of profit.

1. Volatility Drop (Vega): As fear subsided yesterday, the IV Percentile dropped from 87% down to 77%. In a credit spread, this "IV Crush" helps the position reach profitability faster.

2. The Holiday "Pro Tip": Theta (Time Decay) ⏳Concept: Does time decay stop when the market is closed? NO. Even during the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, the expiration clock keeps ticking.

– If you expire THIS Friday: You get a "free day" of decay where the option loses value rapidly while the market is closed.

– If you expire NEXT week: You also capture this decay, simply at a slower rate.

🔮 NEXT: Managing the Trade (Current vs. Next Week)

Depending on your expiration date, your focus may shift here:

Scenario A: Expiring This Friday (Nov 28) You are in the "home stretch." The main goal is letting that Thursday holiday eat away the remaining value.

– Watch Out For: Low liquidity on Friday's half-day session. It can sometimes be harder to get a good fill to close.

Scenario B: The "Black Swan" (Unexpected Event) What if a major macro headline hits while the market is closed for the holiday?

– The Reality: Markets can gap down significantly.

– The Safety Net: Because we used a spread (buying a protective put), your Maximum Loss is Defined. Even if the market crashes -10% overnight, your loss is defined. This is the ultimate "sleep well at night" feature of defined-risk strategies.

Scenario C: Holding into Next Week (Week 49) If your plan is to hold through the weekend, you need to know the Week 49 stats:

– The Good News: 80% Historical Win Rate (Avg Up +1.29%).

– ⚠️ The Risk: When Week 49 is bearish, it averages a drop of -3.87%.

– Takeaway: Ensure your risk is defined. Holding over a long weekend always carries "gap risk," so relying on the defined-loss structure of a spread is crucial.

⚡ NOW: What Are You Watching?

Price is stalling at the 50SMA with a holiday approaching.

What is your read?

A) Breakout: Bulls push through before the holiday. 🚀

B) Sideways: The market drifts until next week. 💤

Let me know in the comments!

Beat Wall Street, Be an Options Hunter, Earn Income Faster! Happy trading, Happy hunting!🦃

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for tracking my trades and strategies for personal review. Not investment advice — always do your own research and ensure it fits your risk tolerance.

#OptionsTrading #SPY #QQQ #Seasonality #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #Stocks #OptionsHunter #WeeklyOptionIdeas #FollowUp #BullPutSpread

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