🤔 Week 46 | S&P500 Backtest Insights: Rebound Ahead or Seasonal Stall | Is SPY Making a Bullish Comeback?
Hey Traders,
Week 45 gave us quite a ride — profit-taking hit AI and growth, while defensives and value quietly took the spotlight. Mega-caps dragged the indices, but equal-weight and value held their ground. Semis were choppy, energy and defensive stood strong, and the S&P 500 ( $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$) managed to defend its 50-SMA yet again, just like the tech sector ( $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ ).
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On the macro side:
Manufacturing stayed soft (ISM Mfg 48.7), while Services re-accelerated (52.4) with prices-paid hitting a 3-year high — not exactly what the Fed wants to see if we’re hoping for a December cut. Labor data stayed mixed (ADP +42k, Challenger job cuts at a two-decade high), and consumer sentiment weakened to 50.3. Rates held steady — 2-year around 3.6%, 10-year near 4.1%. Even with U.S.–China tariff tweaks and shutdown noise, the market held up surprisingly well by week’s end.
Sector rotation was clear: Energy, utilities, materials, staples, and real estate drew inflows. Tech and discretionary lagged again, and equal-weight beat cap-weight as leadership narrowed further.
Story stocks?
Plenty:
– $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ pulled back despite a strong quarter, and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ ’s beat helped calm semis.
– $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ and $Seagate Technology (STX.US)$ caught momentum on HBM supply chatter.
– $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ stayed volatile, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ rose on AI chip news, and defensives like $Kimberly-Clark (KMB.US)$ / $Kenvue (KVUE.US)$ made headlines with deal activity.
Bottom line: Week 45 was all about positioning and valuation. Growth cooled off, defensives stepped in, and the market — once again — respected its key technical support.
Source: Briefing.com, TRADING ECONOMICS
Seasonality
Source: Tradingview.com
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$'s week 45 had an 80% bullish historical stat… and the market flipped bearish. Typical, right? For Week 46, data shows a near 50/50 outcome — average +1.36% up weeks vs. -1.56% down weeks. So we might be leaning more on technicals or catalysts this round.
Technical Analysis:
Last Friday’s close? Touched the 50SMA but held above it — classic test of support.So, let's backtest it:
Source: Tradingview.com
Strategy logic
– Entry: If price touches the 50SMA and closes above, go long next open.
– Exit: When RSI(2) > 70.
Results (since 1993):
– 296 trades
– 71.62% win rate
– 2.07 profit factor
– 17.8% max drawdown
Not bad for such a simple rule set. So — would you trust this setup in the current environment, or tweak it?
What’s your view for Week 46?
Are you expecting a 50SMA rebound, a macro surprise, or more earnings-driven volatility?
What are your thoughts? Share your insights below—We value the community’s perspectives! Happy hunting!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for tracking my trades and strategies for personal review. Not investment advice — always do your own research and ensure it fits your risk tolerance.
#OptionsTrading #SPY #QQQ #Seasonality #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #Stocks #OptionsHunter #WeeklyOptionIdeas
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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