Washed Out: Bitcoin Plunges Below $105K as Billion-Dollar Spiral Resets the Market

Crypto-Moo joined discussion · Nov 4 05:19

November 4, 2025, The cryptocurrency market was hit by a perfect storm of adverse events this week, triggering a sector-wide collapse. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ dropped to around $103,700, breaking below its critical 200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA), a signal technical analysts view as a shift to a bearish trend.

Analysts say the sharp downturn was caused by a toxic combination of macroeconomic pressures, an internal crisis of confidence, and a devastating cascade of liquidations.

Washed Out: Bitcoin Plunges Below $105K as Billion-Dollar Spiral Resets the Market

1. Macro Headwinds: Hawkish Fed and Historical Warnings

The gloomy macroeconomic environment remains the primary driver of the sell-off.

– Rate Cut Hopes Collapse: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments that a December rate cut is not guaranteed caused the implied probability to fall from 96% to below 70%. This strengthened the U.S. dollar and severely punished risk assets like $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ and $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$.

– ETF Outflows: Institutional money continues fleeing. After a record $800 million outflow last week, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw another $180 million exit on November 3rd.

– Historical Warning: Market sentiment was fragile. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ just ended its worst October in a decade with a roughly 3.7% loss, snapping a seven-year "Uptober" streak.

2. Internal Crisis: Confidence Shattered

Adding fuel to the fire, two major security incidents within 48 hours severely damaged market confidence.

1. Balancer Hack: On November 3rd, the veteran DeFi project Balancer suffered a $116 million loss due to a code vulnerability.

2. Stream Finance Collapse: On November 4th, Stream Finance announced a $93 million loss; the cause is still unknown.

Over $200 million disappeared from the ecosystem in just two days, shaking trust in DeFi security.

3. Market Structure: Cascade Liquidation

The combined macro and internal negative news triggered a "death spiral" in the derivatives market. Over $1 billion in liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours, mostly from leveraged long positions, driving prices of $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$, $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$, and $Solana (SOL.CC)$ sharply lower.

XRP, BNB, and SOL Suffer Major Losses as Bitcoin Slides to Around $103,700

According to FXStreet reporter Vishal Dixit, $Ripple (XRP.CC)$, $Binance Coin (BNB.CC)$, and $Solana (SOL.CC)$ are trading deep in the red on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off that triggered over $1 billion in liquidations in 24 hours. At the time, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ was near $103,700 and $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ around $3,480.

Technically, these altcoins face increased selling pressure and risk further losses.

XRP Holds Key Support Amid Rising Selling Pressure

After an almost 8% drop on Monday, $Ripple (XRP.CC)$ rebounded just over 1% on Tuesday, holding around the $2.26 support level. If it falls below $2.26, downside targets include $2.19 and $1.90.

The 50-day EMA is turning downward, risking a death cross with the 200-day EMA—a classic sell signal. Momentum indicators like MACD and RSI (around 39) also point to weakening bullish momentum and rising selling pressure.

BNB Extends Bearish Flag Breakdown

$Binance Coin (BNB.CC)$ continued its downside breakout from a bearish flag pattern on the 4-hour chart, falling below $954 after an 8% decline on Monday.

Immediate support is at $932; breaking this could push prices toward $819, matching the 25% downside target of the flag. Death crosses on short-term EMAs and negative MACD with oversold RSI signal further downside risk.

If BNB recovers above $1,000, resistance near $1,075 will be critical.

Solana Declines Despite Institutional Support

$Solana (SOL.CC)$ dropped nearly 1% on Tuesday, extending Monday’s 10% loss despite $70 million in inflows into U.S. spot $Solana (SOL.CC)$ ETFs over the last four days.

Monday’s breakdown below the $174 support and trendline warns of further correction toward $153. The 50-day EMA threatens a bearish crossover with the 100-day EMA, while MACD and RSI (~32) signal renewed selling pressure.

A rebound above $174 is needed to target the 200-day EMA near $186.

Outlook: $100K Remains the Last Line of Defense

The market sits at a critical crossroads with bears in control.

Bearish Case (Panic Mounting): Analyst Damian Chmiel notes the break below 200-day EMA signals a confirmed bear market.

– The key battleground is the psychological and technical $100,000 support, coinciding with June lows and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

– On-chain data shows Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.47, the lowest since April, suggesting thinning profits and growing selling pressure.

– If $100K fails, Chmiel forecasts a potential 30% drop, with targets at $92,000–$94,000 (61.8% Fib) and ultimately $74,000–$77,000 (April lows), wiping out the 70% rally from the last six months.

Bullish Case (Long-Term Intact): LMAX strategist Joel Kruger argues the pullback is corrective, not structural. Bitcoin still has strong support near the 50-week SMA (~$103,000). Whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC resumed net accumulation at October’s end, signaling long-term players may be buying the dip.