⚔️ War Room Briefing – Fed Day Battlefield: June 18, 2025 (M...
⚔️ War Room Briefing – Fed Day Battlefield: June 18, 2025 (Midday Edition)
“The disciplined general does not move at the first noise. He waits. Then he strikes.”
It’s Fed Day. And as of midday, the market is not crashing into chaos—it’s waiting, positioning, drifting.
That’s exactly when the edge sharpens. While others react, we prepare.
This briefing will guide you through the gamma terrain, dealer flow, and the live setups aligned with The Roman Sun Tzu Method™.
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🧭 Macro Overview – Calm Before the Cannon
As of 11:00 AM ET:
• The S&P 500 is trading at 6013, up half a percent.
• The Nasdaq is at 19636, also up nearly 0.6%.
• Dow Jones sits at 42432, holding a solid gain.
Futures are stable across the board, rising modestly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. Crude oil is slightly lower around 72.74. Gold is down fractionally, while natural gas is up over 3 percent, showing breakout behavior.
Bond yields are easing. The 10-year sits at 4.36%. The U.S. Dollar Index is also slightly lower, signaling that the market is leaning toward a dovish tone from Powell.
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🧠 Options Market – SPY Positioning Into the Event
SPY is currently trading just above 600. That is not just a number—it is a gamma battlefield.
Call premiums have steadily risen since 9:45 AM. Puts were being bought early, but have faded. Volume is stable. Dealers are not showing signs of panic. They’re braced, not scrambling.
This tells us one thing: the market is leaning bullish, but disciplined. It’s not rushing—just positioning.
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🧩 Gamma Exposure – SPX and SPY Core Zones
Let’s break down SPX and SPY using gamma field interpretation.
As of now, SPX spot is around 5982 and SPY is just above 600.
The core gamma field—the zone where dealer hedging is most neutral—is between 5980 and 6000. This is where the market is currently pinned. The closer we are to this range, the more likely price remains stable and volatility stays suppressed.
Above this, we enter the topside gamma zone. That begins around 6050 and stretches to 6100. This area is loaded with positive gamma from call options. If the market breaks through 6050 with force, dealers may be forced to chase, driving price quickly toward 6100. This would be the classic gamma squeeze.
Below the core field is the downside gamma zone. The key trigger is 5950. If we break below 5950, the market moves into dealer short gamma territory. That means volatility picks up fast. The 5800 level on SPX is the major put wall. If that breaks, it’s a freefall.
The HVL, or high-volatility node, is sitting right at 5995. We are coiled tightly here. Whichever way we break after Powell’s press conference, it’s likely to be violent and real.
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⚔️ SPY and SPX Tactical Outlook
Let’s lay out the strategy based on these levels.
For SPY:
If price holds above 600 and begins climbing toward 603 and 605, we initiate long call spreads. For example, a 600/605 vertical call spread or even 600/610 if momentum looks strong. This should be timed just after the Fed announcement if the reaction is bullish.
If price breaks below 595, that’s the trigger to initiate puts. That could mean a 595/590 put spread or even a 590 put outright if volume picks up. If we see acceleration, we target the 5800 SPX zone.
If price remains pinned between 5980 and 6000, we can enter a straddle and take advantage of implied volatility crush. IV is high going into the Fed. Once the news hits, that will collapse, and straddle players will profit even if price doesn’t move much.
The key rule: do not move on the first reaction. Wait. Let Powell speak. The second wave is the real one.
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🔍 Sector Behavior and Flow
Technology is leading today.
Apple is up nearly 0.8%. Nvidia is up about the same. Tesla is the standout—up over 2 percent and already breaking out. Amazon is strong. Microsoft is stable.
Google, however, is lagging. Both GOOGL and GOOG are slightly red. If tech falters post-Fed, Google could be the first to break.
This sector rotation tells us institutions are pre-positioning for a tech-led move. That could fuel both QQQ and SPY higher if Powell leans dovish or signals softness in the dot plot.
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🎯 Stock-Specific Tactical Loadout
“If you’re reading this, imagine what I’m holding back for Patreon.”
Here are the top setups for Fed Day:
SPY
The strategy is either a straddle around 600 or a vertical call spread like 600/605.
If SPY breaks below 595, target downside with 595/590 or naked 590 puts.
If pinned between 5980 and 6000, play the implied volatility crush using a tight straddle.
SPX
Above 6000 and holding—expect a move toward 6050 and 6100.
Below 5950—expect acceleration to 5900 or even the 5800 put wall.
No action on the first spike. Let Powell’s press conference guide confirmation.
TSLA
Already breaking out. Use 325c or 330c for June 21.
Momentum is live—gamma unwind is in progress.
PLTR
Coiling between 138 and 140. Look for breakout above 139.
Suggested play: 139/143 call vertical or long 140c if volume surges.
NVDA
Currently near 146–147.
Strategy is straddle or breakout call (147c).
If tech leads post-Fed, NVDA will confirm early.
SMH
Key level to watch is 267.
Suggested play is 267/270 call spread.
Breakout over 267.50 confirms strength.
LMT
Iron condor around 480 is viable here.
Directional break above 485 or below 475 will trigger momentum.
Consider straddle around 480.
LMT GEX chart showing balanced structure — calls up to 485, puts under 475
RTX
Watch 154 as resistance.
Reclaim of 150 opens upside.
Play 150c or short 154/150 put spread if rejected.
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🧠 Final Orders
Here’s the bottom line:
• The market is waiting, not panicking.
• Gamma levels are clear.
• The first move after the Fed announcement will likely be a fake.
• The second move is the one that counts.
Your job is not to guess. It’s to respond with clarity once the setup triggers.
“The reactive trader is already losing. The general who positions ahead and strikes on confirmation—he wins.”
Let the others rush. You wait. Then you conquer.
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📜 Disclaimer
I am an investor in several of the stocks mentioned in this post, including TSLA, PLTR, and NVDA. The opinions expressed here are my own. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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⚖️ Copyright and Trademark
© 2025 Robert M. Musella. All rights reserved.
The Roman Sun Tzu Method™ is a registered trademark of Robert M. Musella.
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Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Creator of The Roman Sun Tzu Method™ | Nov 2024
25+ Yrs in Strategy, Markets, Disruption | Macro. Machines. Moves.
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venkym : good analysis
Robert Musella OP venkym : Appreciate it. Thanks for reading. More coming soon.