Volatility and oil spike higher as investors turn from risk

8.10am, Monday, March 9, 2026

Moomoo Australia and New Zealand | market commentary by Greg Boland

In Australia, ASX 200 futures indicate the market could open around 2% lower this morning, tracking declines seen on Wall Street at the close of last week. But we’re seeing continued demand for traditional safe-haven assets with gold and silver up 1.5% and 2.5% respectively.

Global equity markets moved lower on Friday as the escalation in the Iran conflict triggered a broad risk-off reaction across financial markets. The S&P 500 fell 1.3%, the Nasdaq declined 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 1% lower as investors reassessed economic risks alongside rising energy prices. Market volatility increased sharply during the session, with the CBOE Volatility Index, widely regarded as Wall Street’s primary measure of expected market volatility, rising 24% to close at 29.49, reflecting increased demand for downside protection in equity markets.

Energy markets moved in the opposite direction. Oil prices surged following concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supply routes in the Middle East. US crude oil rose 12.7% to US$91.27 per barrel, while Brent crude increased 8.7% to US$92.87. These moves came as traders monitored developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping corridor that normally handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day.

Geopolitical developments matched market volatility on Friday, with US President Donald Trump calling for Iran to accept "unconditional surrender", while regional energy officials warned that oil exports are being disrupted as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz becomes restricted.

The Qatari energy minister stated that Gulf producers could halt shipments within days if tankers cannot safely transit the strait. Saudi Arabia has already redirected some crude shipments through Red Sea ports to bypass the Gulf shipping channel. The United States has also signaled potential steps to stabilise supply, including the possible release of crude from its strategic petroleum reserve. Washington has also temporarily allowed India to take delivery of some Russian crude cargoes already at sea.

The rise in energy prices coincided with weaker economic data from the United States. The US Labor Department reported the economy lost 92,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, significantly below expectations of a gain of around 50,000. The report also included downward revisions of 69,000 jobs across December and January. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, its highest level in recent months.

US Treasury yields moved lower following release of the data as investors increased expectation the Federal Reserve may eventually need to lower interest rates if labour market conditions weaken further. However, the rise in energy prices introduces additional uncertainty for monetary policy, as higher fuel costs could fuel inflation.

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